Posted:
#1
I am new to the forum and I love reading the different posts and
opinions on the outcome of games, so I thought I finally post something
as well. Due to being from Europe I bet as a hobbyist on Soccer once in a
while but select US Sport events as well, as I am a big fan of all 4
major US sport leagues. All for the fun of it.
Real Zaragoza - Real Betis
Play: Real Betis
The match looks like a classic draw at the first glance - Reasons:
-Two evenly matched teams, just seperated by 6 points in the league table. Better form of Betis, evenend out by home field advantage of Zaragoza.
Digging a bit deeper, the away side win seems to be the value play, as Real Betis is the dog with a reasonable chance to steal a road win - Reasons:
- Primera Division in Spain is one of the leagues in Europe, having the lowest amount of draws. Just 18,8%. Comparing it to German Bundesliga 24,8% or England's Premier League 28,8% Spain has a very low amount of draws. That being said, one reason is that Spain has a few select top echelon teams, which win more frequently, so that would explain the low amount of draws, but the tendency still exists and should be considered.
- Real Betis has won 5 out of the 6 last matches versus Zaragoza. The last loss for Betis in this matchup was in 2010 at home. so they usually do very well against Zaragoza. All of those 6 matches had a winner, so that would back up the decision against a bet for a draw as well.
- Zaragoza is in a slump on their own pitch as of late, having lost their last two home games versus Levante and Celta de Vigo, making it 3 losses and 2 wins in the last 5 matches in Primera.
- Away game trend for Real Betis looks a little different. They won their last 2 away matches at Deportivo and Celta de Vigo, making it 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw over their last 5 away matches.
- Motivation: Zaragoza wants to stay away from the bottom of the table, but is situated fairly safe being seven points away from relegation. Real Betis plays to qualify for Euro League and a win would help them a lot to cement their position, so one might think they would play with a bit more urgency.
Conclusion: The match is a very close call and can end either way, but the numbers seems to justify the risk to go with the away side this time. Small play on Real Betis for me.
No play on the over/under for me, as the results of both teams contradict each other massively. Zaragoza had a lot of low scoring games at home lately, while Real Betis was part of many shootouts when on the road. To hard to tell which way this one will go. And as usual in Spain, there is always the big thread of red cards chaging the flow of a game completely.
Bol
Real Zaragoza - Real Betis
Play: Real Betis
The match looks like a classic draw at the first glance - Reasons:
-Two evenly matched teams, just seperated by 6 points in the league table. Better form of Betis, evenend out by home field advantage of Zaragoza.
Digging a bit deeper, the away side win seems to be the value play, as Real Betis is the dog with a reasonable chance to steal a road win - Reasons:
- Primera Division in Spain is one of the leagues in Europe, having the lowest amount of draws. Just 18,8%. Comparing it to German Bundesliga 24,8% or England's Premier League 28,8% Spain has a very low amount of draws. That being said, one reason is that Spain has a few select top echelon teams, which win more frequently, so that would explain the low amount of draws, but the tendency still exists and should be considered.
- Real Betis has won 5 out of the 6 last matches versus Zaragoza. The last loss for Betis in this matchup was in 2010 at home. so they usually do very well against Zaragoza. All of those 6 matches had a winner, so that would back up the decision against a bet for a draw as well.
- Zaragoza is in a slump on their own pitch as of late, having lost their last two home games versus Levante and Celta de Vigo, making it 3 losses and 2 wins in the last 5 matches in Primera.
- Away game trend for Real Betis looks a little different. They won their last 2 away matches at Deportivo and Celta de Vigo, making it 3 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw over their last 5 away matches.
- Motivation: Zaragoza wants to stay away from the bottom of the table, but is situated fairly safe being seven points away from relegation. Real Betis plays to qualify for Euro League and a win would help them a lot to cement their position, so one might think they would play with a bit more urgency.
Conclusion: The match is a very close call and can end either way, but the numbers seems to justify the risk to go with the away side this time. Small play on Real Betis for me.
No play on the over/under for me, as the results of both teams contradict each other massively. Zaragoza had a lot of low scoring games at home lately, while Real Betis was part of many shootouts when on the road. To hard to tell which way this one will go. And as usual in Spain, there is always the big thread of red cards chaging the flow of a game completely.
Bol
0
I'm leaning the same way and btw excellent writeup!
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