Spain-Holland WC final discussion

This is a great way to end the WC. 2 of the top 4 teams in the world playing for all the marbles. I've watched every game so far except 1 (cable went out Mex-France) and I've thought Spain has looked the best or equal to the best throughout (I may be a little biased since I had them to win it all). I have been impressed w/ the attacking players Holland has and they have not disappointed. I tried to figure out some matchups because I've watched both teams w/ alot of interest I feel I know them well.

Goalkeepers: Stekelenburg (Holland) vs. Casillas (Spain)

Both have played great. No advantage except I may give Stekelenburg (Holland) the advantage in PK's since he is taller and seems to use his length well.

Defense: Advantage Spain

Spain: Capdevila, Puyol, Pique, and Ramos

Holland: Mathison, Van Bronckhorst, Heitinga, Van der Wiel

I clearly give this advantage to Spain, I really like how their back 4 have played. Puyol showed today why he is or was 1 of the best central defenders, Ramos makes good runs up the side to get involved and Pique just sits back and has done very well. On the other side I have very little confidence in the Dutch back 4. This is clearly their weakness and I think it catches up to them. Holland has allowed a goal in their last 4 games while Spain allowed 1 all WC.

Midfield: Even

Spain: def- Xabi H, Busquets. off- Iniesta, Xavi

Holland: def- Van Bommel, Van der Vaart. off- Sneijder, Kuyt

I like both sides here...Spain: XaVi is 1 of the best in the world at distributing the ball and Iniesta looked great today and has done well all cup. XaBi has drilled a couple close shots from distance and along w/ XaVi both XaBi and Busquets are crucial to Spain's ball control. For Holland: Sneijder is playing excellent and seems to be scoring every way possible. Kuyt has played well and the other 2 Van's bring some strength to the dutch's overrall defense.

Forwards: Even

Spain: Villa, Pedro. subs: Torres, Llorente

Holland: Van Persie, Robben subs: Huntelaar, Elia

Villa scores his typical 1 a game and I really liked how Pedro replaced Torres today, except for not passing on the breakaway. Llorente would be my sub if trailing and Torres when ahead. For Holland you can never count out Robben putting a left footer in.

Overall:

I give the edge to Spain since I don't think Holland can hold a lead against them. Holland may be able to sneak 1 by on a counter but I think Spain will defend and when the time comes to score they will score. I see 3 results Spain 3-1, Spain 1-0, or Draw 1-1. I would not be comfortable betting Holland to win, and that would be a stressful ending for dutch supporters if they had the lead in the last 15.

Thoughts?

Actually, the midfield has ALOT to do with capping this game.

Spain was able to control possession in the midfield against Germany.  The books have the total set at 2 juiced under, which indicates to me they expect more of the same as the German/Spain match.

It looks like the first to make a mistake may be in big trouble...

Im still leaning 1st H no score (or under 1 just to be safe)

I keep going back and forth because I want to bet Spain and I don't think they lose other than in PK's, but at the same time I don't see how the Dutch don't manage to score a goal. This offense is too powerful and they can make 2 or 3 quality subs to kickstart a late push if they fall down a goal.

Every time I try to think of the Dutch winning I keep getting turned off by the back 4 knowing that Xavi will undoubtedly hook up w/ Villa for a nice break to score. I also think Pedro will provide either a goal or assist and that doesn't leave Holland w/ much room to beat a superb Spain defense.