Covers Soccer Posted Record: 119-88 +61.17 units
Montreal v NY Red Bulls (MLS) over 2.5 +104
First and foremost, don't underestimate the loss of the Impact's central defender, Alessandro Nesta who is out with an injury. This guy was the leader and the constant gel that held together Montreal's back 4. It remains to be seen how the Impact will deal with the loss of a very vital member of their defence. He was often seen barking out orders, positioning and formation to his defenders when he was on the field (I've seen all 3 of the Impact's games this season).
Then we have to consider that the Impact are playing an extremely hungry team looking for their first win of the season led by Thiery Henry who leads the MLS with 18 attempted shots on goal. The fact he is absent for this game probably helps New York as Henry has been known to take quite a few ill-advised shots and on occassion tries to do too much himself. While on this point, we should also note that Montreal's striker DiVaio leads the leage with 8 shorts on target. (He'll be in the lineup)
The Red Bulls are also midfielder Tim Cahill and defender Roy Miller who are with their national teams for the WC ualifiers.
Montreal has come out of the gate strong this season winning all three of their games and might let down a bit after playing heated rival Toronto last week in a game they won 2-1. The over has cashed in 2 of the Impact's 3 games this season while New York has allowed 5 goals in 3 games with the over going 2-1 in those 3 games as well. They are off a 0-0 draw to DC United last week but did have a league high 24 attempts on goal and 7 shots on target swatted away. There is no doubt they will try to pepper the small Montreal goalkeeper with a lot of shots today as well in an effort to get their season back on track. The Red Bulls aren't know for playing conservative and given their start, I don't epect them to at this stage of the season where it is vital they get into the win column.
Petke doesn't seem too concerned about the losses of Cahill and Henry who combined for most of those shots last week (given many were off target perhaps a change might be good). He has many options to choose from including Fabian Espindola, Josue Martinez, Amanda Moreno and recently signed forwards Rafhinha and Peguy Luyindula (formerly of PSG).
This is a game where I expect the Red Bulls to press forward and take chances. Montreal has proven itself very formidable on the counter and this will lead to chances. I project both teams to score but 3 of my 4 models give the Red Bulls the victory including 3-1 in my first model, then 2-1 Montreal 2-1 and 2-1 New York.
Recent meetings have also been goal happy games. Perhaps it's just the way these two teams match up against each other but, the last three meetings saw results of Montreal 3-1, NY 2-1 and NY 5-2.
This game will be played at Montreal's Olympic Stadium, a closed roof venue so the weather will not be a factor in this one. The turf was nice and quick in last week's game against Toronto.
OVER 2.5 +104 IS MY BET for 2 units as I rate the probability of 3 goals extremely high.
**** I will continue to update this page throughout the day with any added plays