Sat-Mon plays (Serie A/B.).........

Sat: Derby wknd, 3 BIG ones. that thought process of backing clubs playing their final home match has been blown into the Alps this year. and as a fan, you simply could not ask for a better present from the schedule-makers for this Round. will be doing my part to help out community so getting this out of way early and enjoy the wknd. just tossing out thoughts discussed and some plays. 

Genoa/Atalanta - Genoa clinched their stay winning in Bologna few days ago. Bergamo side can still get knocked out of that CL slot if they arent careful. hosed me twice with those plays in recent rounds, time to adjust. paying heed to Gasperini, hes kind of switched up his approach/formation to 'protect' that 2nd place/CL position - a win here clincehs tht CL slot as they hold the tiebreaker vs us; so that would render the season ender vs Milan of lesser importance. Atalanta have been very patient to build up their offense of late instead of that 'bombs away' attitude. also, Coppa Final midweek. to prove this, just HALF of their matches since the stretch run starting in April have gone over the 2.5, yet theyve had the lead at the whistle in 7 of the 8 games. so im banking on what have seen of recent with them, get the early lead to clinch the CL slot, and pull his big guns late for some rest for the Final. these two played out a scoreless clunker back in Jan, wee bit juiced but I dont mind, this is all about motivation. Atalanta to win first half @-133.

Spezia/Torino - biggest suprise on Wed wasnt the fact Toro lost to AC (still annoyed at self, should have listened to you all), but conceding FIVE in 2nd half? both still not in clear with Benevento making things interesting (fyi, Toro hosts them final round). they shouldnt be at these prices, not on the road, and definitely not after getting torn apart. my melon thinking, when you concede 5 in the 2nd half you arent going to open things up 3 days later, especially when ur at risk of dropping down still. if you have major cajones, taking a stab with Spezia is worth the prices. ill stick to the draw @+235, and take the customary O1.5 @-105 again (2nd half) - 21-14 for another nice season profit out of this, line has actually started going the 'wrong way', should have waited.

Juventus/Inter - Derby d'Italia (Part II). this was supposed to be for the Scudetto, guess Inter didnt get my "memo" back in January (laughing). *** EDIT *** for those whom think Inter has nothing to play for? ... well, then you dont know much about Serie A . Inter (and their fans) would love NOTHING MORE than to shove that pitchfork right up you-know-where on us. a win/draw by them pretty much sends us to UEL. and our roster will not be the same next year, thats for certain. but truth of the matter is we have BIGGER problemos than not getting that CL slot.
dont even need to look, Conte will send out his full-strength/best starting 11 on weekend (if he doesnt? there will be h*ll to pay from other clubs). but Inter have their own massive problems, players rejected the propsed salary cut & Conte looks more likely on his way out. they beat us in round I but we knocked them out of Coppa. toss out stats, theyre meaningless, as always, not touching the sides, but that O/U is too ****-ing low considering we 'MUST' win and we are not cleansheeting them and this match is a free-shot with zero pressure for Inter. so its worth a stab. O2.5 @-112

Lazio/Roma - Derby della Capitale. sweet jesus. Lazio (with a game in hand is of HUGE importance) still got a shot @ that CL slot. Roma getting Mr Crotch-grabber next season, so qualifying for europe is HUGE for them & retaining that roster. toss out everything, stats... everything. past decade? 9w-6d-9l for both, total goals? 32-31 Roma. you get the picture. but Lazio unbeaten in 4 straight (including that 3-0 thumping back in January). one other thing worth mentioning is theres only been one season sweep between the two in past decade (Roma back in'15-16). Cirro having another "typical" season; 20+ goals but just 4 of them in those 11 matches vs the 'big-boy' clubs in europe next year. bigger the match? harder it is to find him. this is one simply to be watched, put a fence around Rome and let them sort things out themselves (laughing). a part of me wants to take that draw - its the WORST possible result for BOTH of them - ; then head to their forums and enjoy their Ultras ripping another apart.
***EDIT*** 12 hours and a good sleep can do wonders for the mind. 280s?? for THIS derby???? awww cazzo! lets have fun & toss some on that principle alone draw @+280

Sunday: wait wait wait wait.... before unloading. for me, im still taking these plays but will uncork on a few possibly (fyi, we'll get all of it back + some in Coppa. so its a 'free roll' day)

Fiorentina/Napoli - IF, Juve drops pts. hammer Napolis TT (the '2' is right around evens. so putting that on standby). a 'w' would clinch CL. the only reason Im not taking this right away - even though they thumped Viola 6-0 back in Jan - is the fact Napoli have won there just once in past 5 visits, and backing Insigne/Dries & Co. in those 'must-win' scenarios with pressure on has not been a wise adventure these past few years; we've learned that from experience ehh? and Viola have not shown any signs of riding out the season, even after clinching their stay, unbeaten in 5 straight. so Gatts boys will probably need 2 anyways to win this.

Benevento/Crotone - that "newbie" thing/trend. 4-1 this year (12-3 past 3 years. actually higher the further you go back). last one of season, and this one is juiced to the moon - for good reason. dont know how this "goes" in other parts, but over here (ill translate to english) basically "if we are going down, then you are coming with us". Benev MUST win to have any chance to survive. Crotone already going down but as you just saw last night Cosmis 'kitchen sink forward' approach has his squads no intentions of rolling over by suprisingly beating Hellas. and theyve blown Ben away past 2 meetings a combined 7-1. and with what i just typed above which is true to the core out here, tack on that trend. and this has the makings of a wild one. of course, the "moment" might cause Benev to freeze up, but if Crotone bangs in the first one all sorts of sorts going to break loose. visitors and their leaky defense still at risk of breaking that record. ill take a shot at the O3.5 @+125, and O1.5 both halves @+285 for fun.

Udinese/Sampdoria - the only "meaningless" one on the slate. both safe, and both cant improve. Samp has won 5 of past 6 meetings but I dont like how they played midweek, falling behind twice. Udines only wins in their past 10 games were vs 2 clubs in relegation. smells like a draw, but im kind of liking Udine to win their finale, as theyre going to get clobbered next week in San Siro. Udine to win @+150, Udine TT O1.5 @+126

Parma/Sass -Derby #3  be cautious of this one fellas. I know, wait for Roma result, to save typing, ill cut & paste Jan writeup when took a pass on the match: one of the lesser known Derbies, "..but this is a derby, Italian-style. and books smartened up (locals are actually closer to evens); Parma are unbeaten in 4 straight H2H's (winning 3) & theres only bee 4 total goals scored. "

but its just as much heated. hence the line opening soo low even tho Parma being relegated. fyi, since being promoted, in pure derby style, Parma are unbeaten vs Sassuolo in their 5 meetings. and you just know theyd love to shove that broomstick up there before leaving for 'B'.
but heres a few things to keep your eye out on. cause you know DeZerbi is telling his players this, without 'over-thinking', just going to point out the fact and you can decided whatever. (keeping in mind, Sassuolos seasen-ender is hosting Lazio)
- if Roma lose, Sass can simply go for the 'w' and take over that final slot for europe. and sets up one h*ll of a season ender with Lazio next week.
- if Roma draws, not only would that blow Lazios CL shot into the Alps and makes next weeks match meaningless for them. that tie-breaker kicks in. (Roma-Sass drew both their matches), so its going to come down to goal difference. so if Saturdays game ends level, Im going to uncork one on Sass TT, theyre going to need to win by 4 to overtake Roma. an you can bet your last string of pasta DeZerbi is going to remind his boys. so their 2.5 TT is on standby.

Milan/Cagliari - still annoyed for not backing them midweek. dont need to do anything here, got that future on them. and they have the luxury of waiting to see how our match ends. but no matter what, a 'w' clinches UCL for them. and since Cagliari too have the luxury of being able to wait, they might not need to have to do anything either as staying up could be reached even before the whistle blows. PASS.
(fyi, AC are unbeaten in past 7 meetings, (winning 6) and have banged in 2+ in 6 of the 7. so i might take Piolis boys TT O2 in a big way if in mood on sunday.

Serie B Promotion Semis (monday): lines are out, take the under in both 1st legs
Citt/Monza under 2.5 @-122
Venezia/Lecce under 2.55 @-105

GL to all & have a good wknd everybody 

Spec--gotta love those derbys...taking Atalanta 1st half--that Roma/Lazio draw looks tempting. thanks again for the write-up!

Good luck!

Hi Spec, i respect you a lot, buy why you say Roma have chance to make UEL? They are done.

BOL!! 

Thx for another great season Spec. You are a Serie A legend! Let’s end in fashion way. 

Suerte mi pana!!

Nothing but big fat winners all day long. 

Rock and Roll Spec!

Spec-great day today!

doc, crazy weekend. cazzo (in more ways than one)
Brack, Atal/Juve in Coppa final tmrw. winner gets backdoor entry into UEL. but since both already qualified for europe, line in table gets bumped down one. Roma gets the 'w' this wknd and theyre in UEL.
senk, one of thy better seasons overall. i partly give that to the fact that Covid just forced me/us to stick within italy. sort of like going back to the way it used to be. before the tv rights, sponsorships, and $$ arrived. has been an interesting ride this season. but must admit, Covid and its impact, has really lessened the joy of it all. 'prioritized' things. anyways, get ready for the season-ending over festival.
alfha hope all is well and tks fer stopping by. Conmebol stuff up in a bit.
Ganda, as always. dont know if you watched, but quite a scare Luk must have given you over the wknd. that was quite an awkward fall. but hes OK and youre in the 'clear' now.
barney, hope all is well.

Atalanta to win first half @-133 (W)
Spezia/Torino draw @+235, O1.5 @-105 again (2nd half) (L, W)
Juventus/Inter O2.5 @-112 (W)
Lazio/Roma draw @+280 (L)
Napoli TT O2 @-115 (P)

Benevento/Crotone O3.5 @+125, and O1.5 both halves @+285 (that red was a wee-bit TOO convenient)
Udine to win @+150, Udine TT O1.5 @+126 (L, L)
Sass O2.5 TT @-120 (W)

Milan?
Citt/Monza under 2.5 @-122 (L)
Venezia/Lecce under 2.55 @-105 (W)