Fiorentina/Atalanta - Bergamo Boys have had two weeks to stew on that loss to Inter that puts them 6 points off the top while extending their losing streak to 8 against the Nerazzurri including being outscored 12-0 in their last four. After getting whooped at San Siro at the beginning of the season 4-0, Atalanta came out scorching in its’ next game against this same Fiorentina side, taking a 3-2 lead into halftime. Interestingly enough, the last two games between these two sides featured five 1H goals in both games. Two potent offenses one of whom just got shut out at home bodes well for at least a 1H goal, which I have a feeling will come early.
Plays: 1H over 1(-122)/over 0.75 (live)
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Fiorentina/Atalanta - Bergamo Boys have had two weeks to stew on that loss to Inter that puts them 6 points off the top while extending their losing streak to 8 against the Nerazzurri including being outscored 12-0 in their last four. After getting whooped at San Siro at the beginning of the season 4-0, Atalanta came out scorching in its’ next game against this same Fiorentina side, taking a 3-2 lead into halftime. Interestingly enough, the last two games between these two sides featured five 1H goals in both games. Two potent offenses one of whom just got shut out at home bodes well for at least a 1H goal, which I have a feeling will come early.
PSV/Ajax - Would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time these two rivals didn’t see a breakthrough at halftime. Hosts have a huge opportunity here to close the gap at the top with a 6-pointer if they can find a way to win. Love taking games involving the top sides in domestic leagues for goals, especially when live odds make it worth the bite.
Plays: 1H over 1 (-122)
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PSV/Ajax - Would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time these two rivals didn’t see a breakthrough at halftime. Hosts have a huge opportunity here to close the gap at the top with a 6-pointer if they can find a way to win. Love taking games involving the top sides in domestic leagues for goals, especially when live odds make it worth the bite.
Got so wrapped up in that Fiorentina/Atalanta game that we missed Aston Villa smh
Hajduk Split/Sibenik - Had this game circled for two weeks. After getting their asses kicked by Rijeka, Gattuso got into a pretty contentious but fun-to-watch back-and-forth with TV pundit Josko Jelicic in the on-field postgame interview. Great to see Gattuso's infamous temperament underlying his undying competitive passion still in full bloom after all these years lol. Rijeka had an unexpected slipup yesterday, leaving the door open for Hajduk to erase their last performance and take a slim lead at the top. Fully expecting the hosts to take care against relegation-bound Sibenik in the 1H.
Plays: 1H over 1 (live)/over 0.75 (live if the opportunity even presents itself)
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Got so wrapped up in that Fiorentina/Atalanta game that we missed Aston Villa smh
Hajduk Split/Sibenik - Had this game circled for two weeks. After getting their asses kicked by Rijeka, Gattuso got into a pretty contentious but fun-to-watch back-and-forth with TV pundit Josko Jelicic in the on-field postgame interview. Great to see Gattuso's infamous temperament underlying his undying competitive passion still in full bloom after all these years lol. Rijeka had an unexpected slipup yesterday, leaving the door open for Hajduk to erase their last performance and take a slim lead at the top. Fully expecting the hosts to take care against relegation-bound Sibenik in the 1H.
Plays: 1H over 1 (live)/over 0.75 (live if the opportunity even presents itself)
Palmeiras/Botafogo - These two have had some significant clashes the past couple seasons both domestically and continentally with Botafogo finally getting through last season after faltering infamously a couple seasons ago. The visitors have made some significant changes to their lineup since capturing the double last season but still have some offensive firepower in Igor Jesus. Palmeiras is coming off that disappointing loss to Corinthians and has had some issues in front of goal recently but still have Vitor Roque who came back to South America after a listless spell in Europe. Was expecting a cagey and slow 1H but think we saw a goal minimum in the 2H, especially after the host’s goalless draw last game.
Plays: Over 1 (-130)
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Palmeiras/Botafogo - These two have had some significant clashes the past couple seasons both domestically and continentally with Botafogo finally getting through last season after faltering infamously a couple seasons ago. The visitors have made some significant changes to their lineup since capturing the double last season but still have some offensive firepower in Igor Jesus. Palmeiras is coming off that disappointing loss to Corinthians and has had some issues in front of goal recently but still have Vitor Roque who came back to South America after a listless spell in Europe. Was expecting a cagey and slow 1H but think we saw a goal minimum in the 2H, especially after the host’s goalless draw last game.
Been a while since I’ve been able to post but finally got some time
Real Madrid/Arsenal - Contrary to what probably a good percentage of people might think, I immediately felt after the first leg that the second leg falls perfectly into Arteta’s gameplan. His MO in this competition over the past few seasons has been to grind out the game on the road, not concede, and basically win the tie at home. They masterfully completed the first half of that job and surviving the next ninety minutes to move onto the semis may arguably be the “easier” part for the Gunners since they’ve accomplished this in Europe so many times before. Now I’m not discounting RM’s possibility of making a comeback as this competition is notorious for crazy things happening AND the Madridistas own this competition but I’m expecting Arsenal to concede 70-80% of possession and set up in a low low low block to frustrate Madrid and dare the hosts to find the net THREE times. And the EPL Masters of the Dark Arts will do everything they can to slow this game down and make it as disjointed and uncomfortable as possible: fouls, time wasting, all that jazz. Francois Letexier will be in charge of keeping order and he’ll have his work cut out for him as both sides have plenty of characters who have penchants for earning yellow cards. This is the same ref who handed out 6 yellows and a red in the second leg of Roma/Porto in this season’s EL. As far as goals go, I’m not sure what to expect without watching the first 10-15 minutes of the game but after seeing both legs today going well over the total, I wouldn’t be surprised if the games today aren’t as high scoring, especially with Arsenal and Inter nursing leads. With RM having to chase and dominating possession, the shots market for defenders hold a ton of value as there will most likely be a ton of corners and set piece situations from fouls. We saw a similar situation yesterday with Villa as both Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres had two shots with one on target including the former getting on the scoresheet and the latter assisting on one. I think Rudiger, who’s already compiled a list of critical and clutch goals for Madrid, has the potential for a huge day. As does Jude, who, too, has a highlight reel of significant goals for Madrid in under two seasons for the Blancos.
Plays: Over 4.5 cards (-115), Rudiger 2+ shots (+240), Rudiger 1+ SOT (+400), Rudiger to score (+1000), Bellingham 1+ assist (+600)
Inter/Bayern Munich - Think this game will see more goals than the other quarterfinal but again not confident. Inter rarely get dominated in possession at home but I rate both teams evenly and Bayern did outshoot Inter in Germany 20-10. With Bayern chasing (and most likely chasing all game), Kane should see the field the full ninety. I don’t think he gets the 5-6 looks he normally does against inferior opposition, but he should see 3-4 opportunities, which for him generally is on target.
Plays: Kane 3+ SOT (+600)
Will most likely play something live. These are longshots but CL lends itself to some tasty opportunities (hit a +200 and +390 Guirassy prop today but had a severe case of FOMO for not going through with a +800 prop that would’ve cashed). Rather take a chance than kick myself at the end for missing out.
Wishing everyone good luck on their plays
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Been a while since I’ve been able to post but finally got some time
Real Madrid/Arsenal - Contrary to what probably a good percentage of people might think, I immediately felt after the first leg that the second leg falls perfectly into Arteta’s gameplan. His MO in this competition over the past few seasons has been to grind out the game on the road, not concede, and basically win the tie at home. They masterfully completed the first half of that job and surviving the next ninety minutes to move onto the semis may arguably be the “easier” part for the Gunners since they’ve accomplished this in Europe so many times before. Now I’m not discounting RM’s possibility of making a comeback as this competition is notorious for crazy things happening AND the Madridistas own this competition but I’m expecting Arsenal to concede 70-80% of possession and set up in a low low low block to frustrate Madrid and dare the hosts to find the net THREE times. And the EPL Masters of the Dark Arts will do everything they can to slow this game down and make it as disjointed and uncomfortable as possible: fouls, time wasting, all that jazz. Francois Letexier will be in charge of keeping order and he’ll have his work cut out for him as both sides have plenty of characters who have penchants for earning yellow cards. This is the same ref who handed out 6 yellows and a red in the second leg of Roma/Porto in this season’s EL. As far as goals go, I’m not sure what to expect without watching the first 10-15 minutes of the game but after seeing both legs today going well over the total, I wouldn’t be surprised if the games today aren’t as high scoring, especially with Arsenal and Inter nursing leads. With RM having to chase and dominating possession, the shots market for defenders hold a ton of value as there will most likely be a ton of corners and set piece situations from fouls. We saw a similar situation yesterday with Villa as both Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres had two shots with one on target including the former getting on the scoresheet and the latter assisting on one. I think Rudiger, who’s already compiled a list of critical and clutch goals for Madrid, has the potential for a huge day. As does Jude, who, too, has a highlight reel of significant goals for Madrid in under two seasons for the Blancos.
Plays: Over 4.5 cards (-115), Rudiger 2+ shots (+240), Rudiger 1+ SOT (+400), Rudiger to score (+1000), Bellingham 1+ assist (+600)
Inter/Bayern Munich - Think this game will see more goals than the other quarterfinal but again not confident. Inter rarely get dominated in possession at home but I rate both teams evenly and Bayern did outshoot Inter in Germany 20-10. With Bayern chasing (and most likely chasing all game), Kane should see the field the full ninety. I don’t think he gets the 5-6 looks he normally does against inferior opposition, but he should see 3-4 opportunities, which for him generally is on target.
Plays: Kane 3+ SOT (+600)
Will most likely play something live. These are longshots but CL lends itself to some tasty opportunities (hit a +200 and +390 Guirassy prop today but had a severe case of FOMO for not going through with a +800 prop that would’ve cashed). Rather take a chance than kick myself at the end for missing out.
Thanks and sorry about the late reply. If I’m up and playing with house money, I try to take advantage of that and still put a unit on each of the bets minus the Rudiger ATS (0.6 units) since the odds are in the double digits. With the odds the way that they are, any of them hitting minus the 2+ shots would put me in the green.
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@Andalouse
Thanks and sorry about the late reply. If I’m up and playing with house money, I try to take advantage of that and still put a unit on each of the bets minus the Rudiger ATS (0.6 units) since the odds are in the double digits. With the odds the way that they are, any of them hitting minus the 2+ shots would put me in the green.
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Really lucky on that last gasp goal by Kean 
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