Monday Soccer Plays

Covers Posted Soccer: 124-100 +49.37 units

Soccer has been up and down of late ... win 3 or 4 in a row only to lose 3 or 4 in a row.  That is the nature of the beast in sports betting and if one cannot accept that the average successful stint requires one to maintain 55-57% winners, then they shouldn’t be betting.  Please look elsewhere if you are looking for 70% winners over a prolonged period of time.  My record is reflective of the status since the Start of the European Seasons in late August including the end of the MLS season.  55% overall with a positive 49 unit market isn’t so bad is in keeping with a money making season. 

I only bitch because of a couple private messages I received.  No need to stir any shit so I will leave it be.

Monday EPL Action:

Manchester City v Manchester United over 2.5 -130  to win 2 units

I forwent the 2.75 line and paid a little more juice to play the 2.5 total in consideration of the fact that two of my projections land right on 3 while the others land on 4.

The basic premise of this play is in the fact that Manchester United has pretty much locked up the Barclay’s Premier League crown for this season.  City is simply too far off the leaders to make any serious stab at trying to catch them. 

As a result, a draw does City no good.  Note: Had this game had more importance in the league race, I would probably have laid off the over here because if City needed to keep pace with a draw then I would have expected a cagier, closer game with both teams taking little risk and hanging back.  However, this isn’t the case.  A draw does nothing for City in terms of trying to make a miraculous yet, impossible run at United. 

Therefore, I expect City to be on the attack searching for goals in this one which will leave space for United to launch quick counters. 

Van Persie hasn’t scored in 11 games now, perhaps feeling the fatigue after that torrid start to his season however, this game against their intercity rival could just be the game he breakouts out of his slump and nets a goal, or perhaps two. He will have his chances.

There are no major injury concerns for either side that will affect the scoring outcome and they should both field their best squads. 

Whether Sir Alex decides to start Rooney is a different issue altogether but I just can’t see him going the full 90 minutes without starting him.  If there has is one player that has had success against City it has been Rooney, having scored 4 goals in the last 3 head to head meetings.  Remember, a loss for United won’t be devastating to their title hopes and as such, they should also come into the game playing some relaxed football in a game that should see them create an aweful lot of chances.

I anticipate that both teams will have their fair share of opportunities in this match so it is going to come down to their ability to finish.

Manchester United has scored 39 goals and conceded 15 in their 15 home matches this season in the league for an average of 3.6. Manchester City have scored 20 and conceded 15 in their 15 away matches for an average of 2.33. Based on these numbers alone, the average is pegged at 2.965 or a statistical probability of 3 goals for this game.

United has not conceded a goal in 6 straight league games BUT I have a strong feeling this will end tonight as Manchester City will find the back of the net.(all my models have them scoring).

United have scored 2 or more goals in 22 of their 30 BPL games (73% of their matches). Of those games, they have scored 2 or more in 13 of their 15 home matches. (87%).

Manchester City should come in on a high after netting 4 goals in their last game, albeit against Newcastle but they found their stride after going a few games in which they had plenty of chances but failed to find the back of the net. Their last 3 road games included a 2-0 loss to Everton and a 3-1 setback to Southampton. They barely managed to beat Aston Villa by a 1-0 shoreline, a very poor defensive squad.

As for City, I still prefer and feel, that they have better offensive capabilities when Nasri starts, (as was displayed last week) but Mancini in somewhat stubborn fashion still decides to start Wilner. I think this would be a perfect game to get Nasri involved as he has the potential to set up big plays and score some goals as well.

There’s something about Manchester City v Manchester United though that just wreaks goals.

• OVER 2.5 has gone 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams in all competitions played at Old Trafford.
• Last 6 matches (all competitions and regardless of field) have averaged 4 combined goals per game. Within those 6 games was a 6-1 City Drubbing over United on this pitch, and three 3:2 games. So as you can see, these two teams match up very well together. The earlier season meeting at the Ethiad went United’s way with a 3-2 scoreline with Rooney (2) and Van Persie scoring the United goals.

These two teams average a lot of shots on goal. City averages 18 shots on net per game while United is averaging 16.4 shots on their home pitch with both teams averaging 6 shots on target per game. United concedes an average of 12 shots per game while City concedes an average of 10 per game BUT, they are facing the highest scoring team in the BPL today. United is converting on 15% of their shot attempts. City is converting roughly 10%.

United is playing to seal the deal while City is playing for pride. This script does not have the makings of a cagey chess match game but instead, has all the earmarks of a wide open, fun affair in which City will play for pride and will look to break United. United on the other hand will also be relaxed and expects a barrage to start the game from City and will find many spaces to counter attack.

This should be a fun game and as has been the script of late, a game in which we should see some goals with the title out of reach and a draw really doing nothing for either side.

I "might" have opinion on the Lazio-Roma derby in Serie A. My initial lean is for Roma to win the game. I will analyze it in greater detail a bit later.

Have you ever tried to play 3 goals exactly?