Knockout Rounds thread - only 15 games to go......

Agreed.

Great to hear.

vanzack Thanks for all of your time  and effort. Great Job! 

Game Picks

Current Record 24-12
Up 50.34 units, Down 22.37 units
TOTAL - Up +27.97 units

Futures... 

Current Record  8-10
Up 20.8 Units, Down 17.4 units
Total Up +3.4 units

PENDING FUTURES:
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)

Monday June 28

51.  Netherlands / Slovakia - Netherlands -1 -114 (90 minutes) (2 units) - Is this the game the Dutch implode?  History might say yes, but I dont think Slovakia can provide even marginal opposition here to allow it.  Slovakia's big scalp is knocking out Italy, but I cant help looking at a group that was very weak (New Zealand, Paraguay) that Slovakia (until Italy) only managed a draw and a loss.  I am tossing out the Italy performance as punching way above their weight - and returning to those first two games - when they proved that they couldnt hold a lead against NZ, and then really got dominated by Paraguay.  In those two games, Slovakia managed 4 shots on goal.  4 shots in 2 games, including one against NZ!!  I realize they played as good as they could against Italy, but Im willing to put my money up that they cant do it again.  Strba is out on a suspension - and that is significant to me as he has been a rock in the Slovaks midfield.

Holland come in clicking in all parts of the game - not only scoring goals, but also only letting in 1 in the 3 games they have played so far.  That is the surprise to me, the lack of quality chances against them - I knew they would score - but their defense has been nasty and smothering.  They have quality finishers.  I cant overstate this - how many one on ones have we seen that the offensive player panics and shoots it right at the keeper?  It sounds obvious - but quality finishing cant be overrated - and the Dutch will finish you off.

I see the Dutch putting constant pressure on the Slovaks, scoring before HT, and then not letting off of the gas - and the Slovaks will try to push and get punished.  The Dutch have a tough road ahead (probably Brazil next), but they dont lose here.  Final score prediction - Holland 3 Slovakia 0

52.  Brazil / Chile - Brazil -1 +114 (90 minutes) (3 units)  - I was very impressed by Chile against Spain.  Down 2-0, and down to 10 men, they fought hard and pulled a goal back, but more importantly really looked sharp in the process with quick short passes, great dribbling (I read a stat that Sanchez has dribbled more than anyone in the tournament), and good ball control.  Unfortunately for them, their GK Bravo was called on to make some plays - and we all saw what happened with that.  The problem for Chile going forward is what happened in the first 21 minutes against Spain - 3 yellow cards (one led to red).  Estrada got the red - which means he is suspended for the Brazil game - but this was his first game and he wont be missed to badly.  The real problem - and I dont think this can be understated - is the fact that Ponce and Medel are suspended for the Brazil game - and guess what?  They are the two central defenders for Chile - their constant throughout the tournament so far in the middle defense - on a team that cant lose anything on defense to begin with.  I think this is a big deal - how can you plug in 2 new central defenders in the middle of the tournament - against Brazil no less - and expect good things to happen?  I dont.

Brazil is Brazil - what do I need to say that hasnt been said - Kaka is back from suspension, Fabiano is fine and will play - same with Elano.  The only crack in the armor of Brazil that I see is their lack of finishing so far, surprisingly only scoring 5 goals in their first 3 games, but even that might be a stretch.  Not many weaknesses here.

Brazil and Chile have a long history together, as they play each other often in South American qualifying.  In the last 4 years, Brazil is 6-0-0 against Chile - both home and away - and has outscored Chile 25 - 3 (yes, 25-3).   I cant ignore all of this - I want to like Chile here - but think they get spanked.  Final score prediction Brazil 3 Chile 0.

GL ALL.

Van:

Love Netherlands; this is the sleeper team and can acutally win the world cup! Almost noone giving them any chance to do it!

Argentina.  

Netherlands tomorrow.  I'll probably follow your Brazil play as well.  Good luck.

Yeah - they could definitely do it - but I have seen this movie before and it hasnt ever ended well for the Dutch....

.

Cant read these line moves - I dont think they mean anything...

4 down, 3 to go....

Argentina!!!

Would you hedge your Argentina to win the WC if they get to the final to face possibly Brazil where they will have a tough game ? Or indeed if they get to the semi final

Have to wait and see - if circumstances change - I will be more than willing to look in to any possible wagers....

Opening line....

Argentina -135 to advance over Germany

UH BOY.....

van,

i love reading your writeups



I cant overstate this - how many one on ones have we seen that the offensive player panics and shoots it right at the keeper?  It sounds obvious - but quality finishing cant be overrated - and the Dutch will finish you off.

Thank you sir.

Very nice to know that someone is actually reading it.

Good job again Van on Argentina.

First time writing in the thread but win or lose your analysis has been fantastic. Keep up the good work man! Thanks!

HOLLAND BRAZIL

Any player shown a red card +198

I'm really looking hard into this prop.  I'm not usually an off the wall prop type of player but this one is hard to overlook.  Chile has look undisciplined thus far in the World Cup with yellow cards and there is also some animosity between these two teams I believe.  3 Red Cards in their past 2 matches against each other.  Just food for thought. 

Why "UH BOY"?

Did you expect the line to be bigger?

How do you see the line moving?

If you didnt have a tourny bet on Argentina how would you bet the game?

Howard Webb (England) is the assigned ref.

He has reffed 2 games so far - Spain / Switz had 4 yellow cards, and Slovakia / Italy which had 8 yellow cards.

I think he is the best referee in the Premiership.

Just FYI.

Uh boy because I love Argentina in this game - but I have some difficult money management decisions ahead of me.  I dont want to have too much on one game, so Im going to have to figure it out - but Argentina to advance at -135 is easily a big bet for me.

I expected the line to be much bigger - I think it is held down because of what Germany did today (people have already forgotten Ghana and Serbia) - and what they did today was against a JV team.  So yes - I did think the line would be MUCH higher - and I have no idea which way it will move.

I agree he is a good ref - he will need to take control of this game if it gets chippy, which I think it will.  I have a full writeup in my own thread I am about to post if you wish to read it.  But I will definitely be on this prop, just thought I'd point it out since you seemed to have stumbled across the same alarming thing that I found - Chile's discipline is their achilles heel.