Knockout Rounds thread - only 15 games to go......

Its like someone flipped a switch at 30 mins, Uruguay went from looking good to terrible in an instant.

Lets see how Ghana handles this lead.  Im confident Uruguay will pull at least one back.  We will see.... but we have a very inexperienced Ghana team with a lead - and a dangerous Uruguay team that is desperate  - dont give up hope yet....

the Netherlands train keep rolling along. 

bracks, i'm not betting it at this point, i was just curious what it was at after today's match.

in vanzack's earlier WC thread, we were discussing the futures bet in when it was better than +1000.  still a ways to go though. 

Ive never felt so horrible to win a bet in my life.

Quote Originally Posted by bracks:

Van- Sticking up for an African team?

JK man, its been our running joke all tourney,

I really feel sick about it.

Just about the cruelest thing imaginable in the realm of sports.

yeah, i have to sweat out in last few minutes of the game. But glad Uruguay won the -200 (to advance) for me.

Saturday July 3

59.  Argentina / Germany - Argentina to Advance -137 (5 units) - If this isnt proof that people betting the WC have very short memories, I dont know what is.  Clearly this line is based on Germany's win against England, but I see that as a lot less weighty than most.

Germany comes in with what I see as 2 very good performances, and 2 not so good performances.  In the Australia game and the England game they looked sharp - their passes were crisp - they had possession.  But I dont put any credence in the England performance.  They should have been down tied 2-2 at HT, and their late 2 goals came as a result of England pressing to get the equalizer.  3 of their 4 goals came as total defensive breakdowns, and bad play by the England GK.  So in retrospect, Im not sure why there is so much love from the betting public based on that performance - we all knew England has played terrible and had no defense - and Germany did what they should have done - and the score ended up being more dramatic than what really happened.

Anyone who watched the Ghana game knows that Germany were lucky to win it, and if Ghana could finish at all they would have lost.  There were numerous Ghanain chances at point blank that were just wasted, and England had chances like this too.  I just dont see Argentina missing these.

There are some holes on the German side that will be exploited.  Podolski continues to give the ball away even when unchallenged, it seems that unless he gets the ball in a position where he can put a first time strike on it he is useless.  The defense is anchored by Lahm and Mertesacker, who both have been very good, but has question marks with Boateng and Friedrich.  There can be no questions at the back because Argentina will be creative, crisp, and punish mistakes.  Ozil has looked dangerous - he is truly the spark plug for the German offense, making darting runs and using his speed to create problems - he will be a key to any German success.

Everyone talks about the potent attack for Argentina - but I am most focused on their defense - where there is some good news in that Walter Samuel appears fit to play after recovering from an injury in the SK game.  This is big, and just in time, as my biggest worry coming in to the tournament, and every game since has been Demichellis, who has given me no reason to reconsider my original worries about him.  He has looked bad - there is no way around it - while the rest of the D has looked surprisingly good.  I am hoping that Maradona has seen enough and makes a straight change with Sameul for Demichellis, and leaves otamendi, burdisso, and Heinze (who has been great) in as the defensive unit the rest of the way.  Romero looked very nervy against Mexico, misjuding a couple of balls - one hitting the crossbar.

The midfield and strikers are up with the best in the world, and have shown nothing so far to think any differently.  Argentina finishes their chances.  They put the ball in the net.  I expect Germany to mark Messi all ovver the field (probably with Friedrich) but that just opens up everyone else, and in this case everyone else is more than enough.

Germany  and Argentina met in a friendly back in March in Munich, with very similar teams, and Argentina won 1-0.    They also met in WC06 and Germany won on PK's.

I have a lot riding on this one between my future bet and game bet, but I was surprised to see this line under -200, and I cant pass it up.  To me, it is a perfect betting storm - where Germany had a set of circumstances that made them look better than they really are - and therefore we get a gift line.  Predicted final score Argentina 3 Germany 0.

60.  Paraguay / Spain - Paraguay +1 -103 (1 unit) Paraguay to advance +385 (.5 unit) - Plain and simple, I think this line is way too high.  I think people have forgotten that Paraguay finished tied for second in South American qualifying ahead of both Argentina and Uruguay.  They obviously have issues scoring goals in 3 of their first 4 games - their strikers have been disappointing - Santa Cruz looking old and out of his league.  But their defense has looked excellent, and I am willing to take a chance on an overinflated line that Paraguay can hold Spain.  Yes, I am aware of the talent of Spain, and yes I acknowledge that Spain could win this game by multiple goals - and also that they probably will win this game.  But the line only means that I have to have Paraguay win one out of 5 of these matchups, and I think they do better than that.  Eeryone is on Spain, and maybe rightfully so, but give me those fat odds.  Predicted final score Spain 2 - 1.

GL all