*Joga* -Discussion- How can we all be better gamblers? Picks also!

Greetings Covers Pals!

Like almost anything else in life, sports betting can be as casual or as serious as you want it to be. You can be the occasional bettor who just gets bored and needs some action to pass the time or a meticulous sports analyzer who spends hours watching games, reading all the news, analyzing stats, etc. in order to have a shot at a profit.

I like to think of myself as a hybrid between the two described bettor types. I have my days where I spend the day analyzing matches, stats, and whatnots and I also have my days where I see a game about to start and go with my gut feeling just to “have something to watch.”  As all of you out there should know, there’s no “perfect system” to be on the positive side of the wager every single time.  Heck, most professional gamblers hit around the 55% mark, so what’s the outcome that us, mere mortals, can hope for?

For me, the way to out-smart (maybe “out-luck”) the books is by finding value in either dogs that you like to win the match or, mostly exclusively in the beautiful world of footie, favorites that you love to win the game and pay a positive ML.  For those of you who know me, I’ve had 2 “eras,” for lack of a better word, posting at Covers.  The first one, last season, had me running hot for extended periods of time (aside from my arch nemesis, Liga MX) but, culminated in me losing my way a bit at the end. I still had a positive units record at the end, but nowhere near where I had gotten it to. I analyzed the data after and here’s what I came up with:

1) The goal is to end your day in the plus side. It doesn’t matter if its $1 or $10,000, if you’re up, you’re up.

2) Ride the hot streaks + pick your spots if you feel like upping your wager, but always bear in mind the point made above.

3) Cold streak? Stop! Go back to the drawing board, take a few days if needed until a match comes up that you really like. Never pick a game just to pick the next game. Lower your wagers.

My second “era” was not as successful as the first.  After taking a break, primarily because I’ve been so slammed with work that I hardly have time to actually cap some of the games, I realized the following:

I wasn’t following any of the 3 points that I had learned from my previous “era.” 

1) The goal was to “bet the next game” most of the time. 

2) While I did ride some hot streaks, I maxed out wagers too often and if 2 or 3 of those didn’t pan out, there I was having a losing day after being up a considerable amount.

3) When a cold streak faced me, I would pick the next game I liked and pound it with a max wager, usually creating a disastrous result.

All of the above are recipes for disaster. Yet, I can’t say I’m happy I lost all of those units, but I’m grateful for the opportunity to learn from that experience and become a more mature sports bettor.  This pastime, profession, or occasional entertainment industry, regardless of how it fits in your case, needs one thing above all else from the bettor in order to become a success: Discipline.

Yes, there is luck involved, skill, knowledge and a bunch of other things, but if you’re not disciplined, you might as well be tossing out 100s from a window. I became much undisciplined in the last few months and I’m changing that starting now.

I was wagering on too many games and that made me lose track of what I was doing during the day (especially if I was out doing something else rather than watching the action). This way of gambling will be new to me, but I’m going to take it one game at a time and I’m going to limit myself to losing up to 1.60 units from my initial bank on any given day.

What does this mean?

Say I bet 1.60 to win 1.60 on Team A and they lose. That’s it, I’m done for the day. It doesn’t matter how much I like another game, I’m out.  Though this will be hard to cope with, some days you start and lose 5 in row.  This will take care of that.

Now, say I bet 1.60 to win 1.60 and I win. Now I have 3.20 available for that day if I want to. I can bet all 3.20 on one match or have several bets. 

The idea here is that we’re going to now measure how good of a sports gambler I am by really putting my skills to the test.  If I can’t keep my head above water at 0.500 W PCT, then I’ll realize very early that I need to change my tactics, without losing most of my bank.  If, however, I start winning some matches, then I’ll build my bank enough in order to be able to pick my spots and up my wager when I feel it’s warranted.

 I’m not saying this is the way to go, nor am I guaranteeing success. This is part 3 of my sports-betting journey and I’m merely documenting it here in hopes that it will be successful and that it will help some of you out there.  In order to respect the process and not try to chase some (now) meaningless record that had me losing more than winning, I will start my record with a clean slate here. What’s the difference if the ones before were also my picks, you may ask?  Well, I was really shooting from the hip on a very good amount of games. I was overwhelmed with work and other things that I disrespected the sport and it ended up biting me in the behind.

Every pick from here on out is being made because I would’ve capped the game.  That’s pretty much it.

Discussion and opinions are encouraged! 

...and of course, I "messed up" and wagered "to win 1.60" which had me risking 1.76 units.. Oh well, not the end of the world, but won't happen again.

I line moneyline straight up betting. Over/Under goal very unpredictable.

Adding: 

BOL

Maximus1978 

Great stuff thanks. 

good discussion i think gambling is like being professinal athleate u have to eat breath and sleep gambling  if u wanna be good at it . most of us have jobs which gets in a way i think i belive if i quit my job now i would be a lot better off. so many times i wanted to do it but just cant pull the trigger hope one day i can work up the courage to do it and just focus on gambling . also being in right frame of mind is also important if u are having bad day better of not gambling when you are emotional u make dumb desicions . just gotta have a routine u have to take time to reset go outside exercise eat something good gotta have good people around u and if u can do all those things where u wont put so much pressure on your self i think its possible to be great gambler but who got that kinda discipline probably nobody

Dinho - Yup.. I'm with you there and I agree (to your Real Madrid point), mismatches are not dictated by the name of the team or the line that Vegas gives out. I've seen plenty of mismatches where the team with the upper hand is even the underdog at times and identifying those matches is part of the success formula. FuboTV rocks!! haha