Jersey Dude's Daily Footy

It's the 1st of a new month, so what is better than beginning a new betting system, using new handicapping criteria and money management?

The odds posted will be the average odds shown at Oddsportal, if not mentioned otherwise. (I only use Pinnacle and “Bet In Asia” -this is a brokerage, so I get usually better odds than these.)

I will post all the scheduled time starts for matches in Central European Time (CET), as when it is possible, the matches will be centered in Europe.
Starting bankroll is 100 units, "U" = Units.

Warning:
Do not follow, because for now I am starting with a small bankroll of $1,000.
I will up it just if things are looking good in the long run.

Day 1 / Tuesday, Jul 1, 2025

2 matches to look at, with some important data:

Real Madrid - Juventus:
First 11's market value: 833.2M € vs 282.1M € => Real Madrid is 2.95 times more valued.
First 11's median age: 24.9 years vs 24.8 years => identical.
Domestic competition record in finished season:
Spain 1: Poz. 2 with 84 pts (2.21 pts per game) vs Italy 1: Poz. 4 with 70 pts (1.84 pts per game)
Champions league last season: Real has been stopped in 1/4 finals by Arsenal, Juventus has been stopped in 1/16 finals by PSV.

Dortmund - Monterrey:
First 11's market value: 244.6M € vs 41.6M € => Dortmund is 5.88 times more valued.
First 11's median age: 26.6 years vs 30.6 years => Dortmund average player is 4.0 years younger.
Domestic competition record in finished season:
Germany 1: Poz. 4 with 57 pts (1.68 pts per game) vs Mexico 1 (Clausura): Poz. 7 with 28 pts (1.65 pts per game)

Other things to consider:
Monterrey playing very close to Mexico => huge Mexican support, almost zero Dortmund support.
The Real match will be in Miami, with roof just over all seating areas, so field will experience high temperature => teams do not want to go to overtime
From all 4 team which wants more to win a trophy, to repair something from their ended season?
Yesterday both games ended in shockers, the huge underdogs advancing => today is less possibility for shock results.

I do not see Real losing this one, however, it still may pull a stinker and go to extra time.
So we I go wit a parlay.

Play for today:

FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid - Juventus @ 21:00
1.6 U: Parlay: Real Madrid 0 1.35 + Over 1.5 1.23 (resulting odds = 1.66)

"So we I go wit a parlay." = So I go with a parlay. 

Damn! No matter how hard I check something when I post some longer text, it's almost impossible that I ever post without typos.

@jersey_dude

At half time I don't like what I see, it gives me the impression that there may be only 1 goal in this one. So far the heat and humidity is killing the game, besides Real having too few creative ideas on attacking.

Who are de idiots who put a match like this at 3 PM local time in the Florida heat and humidity?

Real Madrid - Juventus => 1:0
1.6 U: Real Madrid 0 1.35 + Over 1.5 1.23 => L 1.6 U

At halftime I said that heat and humidity will keep score probably just at 1 goal, but my final conclusion is that the Juve goalkeeper, Michele Di Gregorio, singlehandedly destroyed my parlay.

I mean how crystal clear it is, when he was "player of the match" with a rating of 9.3, while the Juve team's average rating was 6.94. The next highest rated player of the match was Valverde of Real, with a rating of 8.4. Real had 21 total shots, Di Gregorio having 10 saves. (All data is conform sofascore.com .)

These being said, it is also important to note that Real's forward play was not a world beater today, ...not at all. This combined with the impotence of Juve harming the Real goal, resulted in they not breaking much sweat to try to go up 2:0, after they went ahead with 1:0.

Before this game Real other matches in this Cup were 1:1 (Al Hilal), 3:1 (Pachuca) and 3:0 (Salzburg).
In the next game, the quarterfinal against Dortmund I guess I will either combine the "Over 1.5" in a parlay, or make a biggish single play of the Over 1.5.
I think it is slim chance for that one going again 1:0, with Real having another uninspired kind of attacking play, and Dortmund's goalkeeper pulling another "Di Gregorio".

Day 2 / Friday, Jul 4, 2025

FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras - Chelsea @ 03:00, Jul 5
USA 1: Colorado Rapids - Sporting Kansas City @ 03:30, Jul 5

2.8 U: Parlay: Chelsea 0 1.41 + Colorado Rapids 0 1.32 (resulting odds = 1.86)

Chelsea over?

@Seahawks14

Yeah, I thought about taking the Over 1.5 in the parlay instead of Colorado, but after how went my first parlay, I was afraid to not getting a repeat...

Palmeiras - Chelsea => 1:2
Colorado Rapids - Sporting Kansas City => 1:2

2.8 U: Chelsea 0 1.41 + Colorado Rapids 0 1.32 => L 2.8 U

Overall: L 2 => L 4.4 U

WTF was this Colorado - Kansas City??
Stats conform "Sofascore":
Ball possession: Colorado 67% - Kansas City 33%
Expected goals (xG): Colorado 3.64 - Kansas City 0.82
Big chances: Colorado 9 - Kansas City 1
Total shots: Colorado 24 - Kansas City 5
Goalkeeper saves: Colorado 0 - Kansas City 7
Goalkeeper rating (this is the key to all this): Colorado 5.5 - Kansas City 7.7
The Colorado keeper was by far the worst rated player from all players of the team, Colorado average rating is 6.96, the next worst player had 6.3.

Both my parlays were singlehandedly destroyed by the goalkeepers: in the first one the keeper had a super good performance and in the second one the keeper had a horrible performance. 

Day 3 / Saturday, Jul 5, 2025

FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid - Dortmund @ 22:00
5.2 U: Parlay: Real Madrid -0.25 1.43 + Over 2 1.20 (resulting odds = 1.716)

I have taken the Real -0.25 for in case of they would be shitting the bed, and going draw in 90 minutes, to lose just half wager.

Real Madrid - Dortmund => 3:2
5.2 U: Real Madrid -0.25 1.43 + Over 2 1.20 => W 3.723 U

Overall: W 1 - L 2 => L 0.677 U

Day 4 / Sunday, Jul 6, 2025

Norway 1: KFUM Oslo - Bryne @ 14:30
Sweden 1: Djurgarden - Degerfors @ 16:30

3.4 U: Parlay: KFUM Oslo 0 1.35 + Djurgarden 0 1.28 (resulting odds = 1.728)

KFUM Oslo - Bryne @ 14:30 => 1:1
Djurgarden - Degerfors @ 16:30 => 5:1

3.4 U: KFUM Oslo 0 1.35 + Djurgarden 0 1.28 => W 0.952 U (odds = 1.28)

Overall: W 2 - L 2 => W 0.275 U

Day 5 / Monday, Jul 7, 2025

Euro Women: Portugal W - Italy W @ 21:00
1.2 U: Parlay: Italy W -0.5 1.61 + Over 1.5 1.32 (resulting odds = 2.125)

Portugal W - Italy W => 1:1
1.2 U: Italy W -0.5 1.61 + Over 1.5 1.32 => L 1.2 U

Overall: W 2 - L 3 => L 0.925 U

Day 6 / Tuesday, Jul 8, 2025

Champions League: Levadia (Est) - RFS (Lat) @ 18:30
Champions League: Vikingur (Fai) - Lincoln Red Imps (Gib) @ 20:00
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense - Chelsea @ 21:00

1.8 U: Parlay:
RFS 0 1.28 + Vikingur/Lincoln Under 3.5 1.32 + Chelsea 0 1.22
(resulting odds = 2.06)

Levadia (Est) - RFS (Lat) => 0:1
Vikingur (Fai) - Lincoln Red Imps (Gib) => 2:3
Fluminense - Chelsea => 0:2

1.8 U: RFS 0 1.28 + Vikingur/Lincoln Under 3.5 1.32 + Chelsea 0 1.22 => L 1.8 U

Overall: W 2 - L 4 => L 2.725 U

This is ridiculous!   
I have the talent to have an offer on the schedule of 10 games to be played on the day in the Champions League qualifications, and when have only 2 matches which will go "Over 2.5", I am picking the "Under whatever" for the match which will be the highest scoring one. The other "Over 2.5" match had 4 goals. What would be the odds for this?
I am done messing with any kinds of goal totals for a while.

Day 7 / Wednesday, Jul 9, 2025

Champions League: Zalgiris (Ltu) - Hamrun (Mlt) @ 18:00
Champions League: Shelbourne (Irl) - Linfield (Nir) @ 20:45
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG - Real Madrid @ 21:00

2.6 U: Parlay:
Zalgiris 0 1.24 + Shelbourne +0.5 1.26 + Real Madrid +1.25 1.26
(resulting odds = 1.969)

Zalgiris (Ltu) - Hamrun (Mlt) => 2:0
Shelbourne (Irl) - Linfield (Nir) => 1:0
PSG - Real Madrid => 4:0

2.6 U: Zalgiris 0 1.24 + Shelbourne +0.5 1.26 + Real Madrid +1.25 1.26 => L 2.6 U

Overall: W 2 - L 5 => L 5.325 U

You can never account for in your capping if a team does not show up for a match, or practically does not give a shit about the competition. Real Madrid should be ashamed of themselves, they checked big time both these boxes!

No matter if PSG-s current form is clearly better, but in normal conditions on a neutral ground PSG should never beat Real with more than 1 goal, if both teams play to their strengths. Yesterday's player ratings (team average) in "Oddsportal" were: PSG 7.46 - Real 6.39, ...go figure! I would be surprised if Real had ever such a lover rating than the opponent in any recorded match.

All this said, I am making some totally cringe plays so far, no good either to follow or to fade, by being all just parlays.

Day 8 / Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

Euro Women: Finland W - Switzerland W @ 21:00
Euro Women: Norway W - Iceland W @ 21:00

4 U: Parlay: Switzerland W +0.5 1.29 + Norway W +0.25 1.41 (resulting odds = 1.819)

I like it.  GL on the parlay.

@chaka1