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Euro 2012....

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Posted: #1401
Quote Originally Posted by bakemcbride:

Headoverheart, in some cases, a bettor may not trust a team they are betting on to win in extra time or penalty kicks.

If, for example, I thought Italy had the weaker goalie, or their starting XI may be tired coming into the match, I may choose to take them in regulation only, and just accept the pushed bet.

I'm not implying anything wi


Dude, the lines are ridiculous.  Set by some crackhead.

Italy in 90 is -106 but Italy to Qualify is -107?

Who the hell would take the -106????

That was my point.
 
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Posted: #1402
Italy and England will go to a shoot out.  Take the tie for +200
 
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Posted: #1403


Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



Dude, the lines are ridiculous.  Set by some crackhead.

Italy in 90 is -106 but Italy to Qualify is -107?

Who the hell would take the -106????

That was my point.


You are clearly misunderstanding what he meant. The -106 wasn't -0.5 in regulation, the -106 was for PK EM in regulation. (draw no bet)

So there is a decision between the -106 and -107.
 
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Posted: #1404
you are the man van.....not your fault the french went out there and laid down like that.

Forza Azzurri !


 
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Posted: #1405

Come on Italy ;o)  Lets show up today, and fill the net!

France was the play, they just forgot to play?  Benzema obviously still thinks he is playing club football as he kept passing the ball to Spaniards?

 
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Posted: #1406
Quote Originally Posted by sharpstick:



You're a fucking moron.  

agree 
 
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Posted: #1407
Can someone explain to me how Spain was -120 to beat France but are now even money to beat Portugal?  That line is hard not to pound Spain...
 
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Posted: #1408
massive line movement towards Italy this morning...
 
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Posted: #1409
Quote Originally Posted by dumped97:

I'm going to side with England tomorrow, a tie is very possible but I'm betting England to get the win in regulation. Also, the under is a great bet but the odds are going to keep me off that play.

Good Luck guys

Euro Record 2-0

Go Portugal Go Home
 
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Posted: #1410
Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Can someone explain to me how Spain was -120 to beat France but are now even money to beat Portugal?  That line is hard not to pound Spain...


France is in a rebuild year and only managed 1 win in a not so tough division. Portugal has a fairly tight team and it's only loss was to the now favs Germany, furthermore Portugals entire Divison was pretty good and they went 2-0-1.

Portugal > France
 
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Posted: #1411
Best of Luck VAN...
 
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Posted: #1412
Arkadymo-

Im with you on this one.  Placed a small wager when I saw that, will wait till to place more until I hear more about the match up.  Looks good though.
 
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Posted: #1413
were we at the same wedding? i was at a wedding yesterday as well...
 
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Posted: #1414
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Congrats to Spain backers.

Im on a losing streak for sure - but just go back in the thread - I knew if the wins turned to losses what would be coming - I have been around covers too long - you get too much credit for winning and too much bashing for losing.

 

Thanks bro and shack those three loses off no  bigge to all the win you have produced

So let the bashing continue....

Im on Italy big tomorrow - 4 units in regulation time at a PK, and 2 units to advance.  Biggest bet of the tournament.

And no - it is not in reaction to losing my last 3 - this money was bet or planned before the quarters started - so bash away - but save the "hes chasing" comments.....

England has clearly been my nemesis this tournament - but I am willing to take a stand against them in a game where I cannot understand the line.

At a wedding - in between reception and ceremony - so limited time but will try to post in the AM.

GL all.  Congrats Spain bettors.

 
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Posted: #1415
^^^^^ was suppose to have thanks for all you do and shake those 3 loses off...It's no bigge with all the wins you have given out..
 
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Posted: #1416
Vanzack, time to break your losing streak - Italy wins today.  Hey I noticed the number of views on your post must be the second highest all-time on covers, I believe the "free porn" discussion (see "General Discussion" forum) is the highest, around 1/4 million and counting, last time I looked, think about it, that's a ton of respect for you. 
 
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Posted: #1417
Quote Originally Posted by gamblingallday:

massive line movement towards Italy this morning...


I must be seeing something different from what you are. The highest I saw Italy on betfair was +105 and now they're -102. Maybe it went higher and I missed it, but +105 to -102 is far from massive.
 
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Posted: #1418
[Quote: Originally Posted by howzuck] Vanzack, time to break your losing streak - Italy wins today.  Hey I noticed the number of views on your post must be the second highest all-time on covers, I believe the "free porn" discussion (see "General Discussion" forum) is the highest, around 1/4 million and counting, last time I looked, think about it, that's a ton of respect for you.   

And, this thread doesn't come  nearly as handy either 
 
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Posted: #1419
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



I must be seeing something different from what you are. The highest I saw Italy on betfair was +105 and now they're -102. Maybe it went higher and I missed it, but +105 to -102 is far from massive.


it was at Italy pk -114 earlier this morning but i agree that that is far from huge line movement...
 
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Posted: #1420
lets get em Van
 
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Posted: #1421
Quote Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:


Somehow I dont think so buddy, Vanzack looks for value in a play and when you have a total of 2 with the under at -125, I dont see much value in that. There's more value in the over 2.5 at +170 for that game, All it takes is 1 goal in the first half by either side and that bet is in great shape. 

Here's another angle to look at it, Are you honestly telling yourself that England and Italy wont be able to score 1 on each other at least??? I don't care if both of them play Catenaccio, Both sides have the players to get their team 1 goal and of course 1-1 doesn't mean you lose but you wont win either.

Where you at now, SwishSwish? Told you there was no value in u writing that.

 
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Posted: #1422
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

On Italy -115 to advance myself, good luck Van!

Italy

 
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Posted: #1423
Quote Originally Posted by SnowmanGeezy:

Where you at now, SwishSwish? Told you there was no value in u writing that.


You didn't understand my point mate, I never said I was betting the over nor was I influencing you to bet the over, I merely said there's no value betting the under 2 asian handicap, At the time the under 2 was at -125 and the over 2.5 goals was at +170, From a betting value perspective I said Vanzack would not be betting the under, Mainly because I've seen enough of the guy to know what type of bet's he usually goes. 

Big whoop you won 1 bet, You can beat your chest for the next day or so but remember it's about value at the end of the day and there was NO VALUE in betting the under 2 at -125, Considering how many chances Italy had you can consider yourself pretty lucky that bet wasn't under any threat through out the game, Now run along little boy and go spend your 100's.
 
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Posted: #1424
Quote Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:


You didn't understand my point mate, I never said I was betting the over nor was I influencing you to bet the over, I merely said there's no value betting the under 2 asian handicap, At the time the under 2 was at -125 and the over 2.5 goals was at +170, From a betting value perspective I said Vanzack would not be betting the under, Mainly because I've seen enough of the guy to know what type of bet's he usually goes. 

Big whoop you won 1 bet, You can beat your chest for the next day or so but remember it's about value at the end of the day and there was NO VALUE in betting the under 2 at -125, Considering how many chances Italy had you can consider yourself pretty lucky that bet wasn't under any threat through out the game, Now run along little boy and go spend your 100's.


If you take history into the equation and the tactics of england in this game you most likely had value on the under 2.0, even at -125, although maybe not much - but you could have shopped for a better line than -125.

Occurrence of correct scores in the knockout stages since 1980 through to 2008:

1-1 23%
0-0 20.5%
2-0/0-2 15%
1-0/0-1 10%

That's about 70% chance of winning or pushing the bet, and only 30% chance of losing the bet based on history alone, and then you can take into consideration the tactics of both teams in this game. Italy is somewhat more attacking than they used to be, but england with hodgson is obviously more defense oriented.

Value is NOT about a line being plus money or not.


 
 
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Posted: #1425
Quote Originally Posted by thabeest:



If you take history into the equation and the tactics of england in this game you most likely had value on the under 2.0, even at -125, although maybe not much - but you could have shopped for a better line than -125.

Occurrence of correct scores in the knockout stages since 1980 through to 2008:

1-1 23%
0-0 20.5%
2-0/0-2 15%
1-0/0-1 10%

That's about 70% chance of winning or pushing the bet, and only 30% chance of losing the bet based on history alone, and then you can take into consideration the tactics of both teams in this game. Italy is somewhat more attacking than they used to be, but england with hodgson is obviously more defense oriented.

Value is NOT about a line being plus money or not.



Well said but my theory was this, Do both teams have the players to score 1 goal for their side if they fall behind??? The answer was yes, The fact the line was at 2 was a big turn off for me, Had it been at 2 & 2.5 I would of been interested. 

I mean It's very convenient to now look back in hindsight and say the value was on the under but if Glen Johnson takes that chance in the 5th minute or If De Rossi's shot goes in early on in the game, That bet is in flames because the other side has to open up and then a 1-1 is easily possible which pushes the bet, And I'm not betting to push.

Just my opinion..
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