They were the much much better team today. Fricken Greeks got lucky as shit on their one goal. I was TOTALLY pulling for the better team
Erm, it kinda is. It's not about keeping possesion it's about what you do with your possesion. You play your possesions according to the style off football you want to play. So like in Italy's case it doesn't matter that much possesion they have, it's about how many chances they create. They try to play direct, fast paced attacks, so they haven't got as much possesion as a team like Spain because Spain plays easier, shorter passes which makes it easier to keep possesion off the ball.
Erm, it kinda is. It's not about keeping possesion it's about what you do with your possesion. You play your possesions according to the style off football you want to play. So like in Italy's case it doesn't matter that much possesion they have, it's about how many chances they create. They try to play direct, fast paced attacks, so they haven't got as much possesion as a team like Spain because Spain plays easier, shorter passes which makes it easier to keep possesion off the ball.
Well, I actually feel very fortunate after those games.
Obviously the results sucked for me - I had a 3 unit future on Russia I thought was basically cash - but I feel very good about laying off both games. Something just didnt feel right - and I didnt let myself get caught up in the excitement of betting on a side or total that I couldnt convince myself of.
So long story short - pissed that Russia blew it - but it could have been a lot worse for me.
I can't believe what I just saw
Russia not advancing meant really nothing to me. But if the Czech and Poland would have tied - unbelievably - Russia would have won the group.
So needless to say - on that last Poland chance that was cleared off the line - I was on my knees.
When it was 1-0 in both games, it was more important to me that Poland scored than Russia. One Russia goal meant nothing to me, while one Poland goal had Russia winning the group.
Results:
10 - 3.5 - 2 WLP
+10.70 units
1. Greece +.5 at +112 1 unit - WIN
2. Russia to win at +128 for 3 units - WIN
3. Dutch -170 for 2 units - LOSS
4. Germany -.5 -105 for 1 unit - WIN
5. Germany under 2.5 -107 for 1 unit - WIN
6. Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units - WIN
7. Croatia -.5 +120 for 1.5 units - WIN
8. France PK -120 5 units - PUSH
9. Swe/Ukr over 2 -126 3 units - WIN
10. Russia +142 3 units - LOSS
11. Czech PK and -.5 +108 1.5 units - WIN
12. Portugal -.5 +102 for 2 units - WIN
13. Italy Pk and -.5 for 4 units - HALF LOSS
14. Spain -1.5 -110 for 2 units - WIN
15. Ukr/Fra over 2 -120 3 units - PUSH
16. Sweden +.5 -130 1 unit - LOSS
17. Rus/Gre - No bet
18. Pol/Cze - No bet
Futures:
Italy to win the tournament +1425. 2 units
England to come in last in group D anywhere from +500 to +600. 3 units
England not to win the group at -210. 2 units
England to go under 5.5 points in the group anywhere from PK to -150. 3 units
Ukraine to advance from group D +145. 2 units
Russia to win group A +170. 3 units Republic of Ireland to finish last in Group C -125. 3 units.
Denmark to finish last in group B -167. 2 units.
Upcoming:
19. Germany / Denmark: You kind of have to analyze these remaining group games in pairs. What happens in one game certainly affects the strategy in the other. Germany certainly are better than -130 against Denmark. If this was the 2nd group game, I would have Germany - no brainer.
In almost every scenario I come up with, I feel like Germany will not be playing for a draw. Low has already stated that he will not be resting players - but still has to deal with the suspension of one of the best defenders so far for Germany - Jerome Boateng.
On the other side - Denmark also have their own injuries to deal with - impact players Rommendahl and Zimling are out.
I just see problems on both sides of the defense - and the one thing Denmark has impressed me with is their finishing. I think there will be chances on both sides of the field. Im on the over 2.5 -115 for 2 units. Most likely result Germany 3 Denmark 1.
20. Portugal / Netherlands: I am reversing course on this one. I have seen enough of the Dutch to know that the kind of problems they have at the back are not solved overnight. Now - add to that their need to win by 2 goals - and it makes them very vulnerable.
"We need Germany to win but we know from the start we have to win by two goals and I will keep that in mind," said Dutch boss Bert van Marwijk.
"We have to go for it, that's what the tactics are based on. The tactics will reflect that situation."
So I am assuming this means that we will most likely see Huntelaar and Van Der Vart start - and at least Van Bommel and most likely Affelay will be the casualties. But the problem for me is that in the 65 minutes so far in the tournament that they have played this formation has been no improvement over their standard formation. This is a disjointed team - sometimes these situations come down to simple things - and I just see this team as the France of the last WC. There are stories of infighting, Robben was arguing with Van Marwijk for a lot of the second half before being yanked - not to mention his total lack of effectiveness. Im pretty sure that everyone on the planet is aware of his cutback move from the flank to shoot a bender to the far post that is on target one out of every 50.
Portugal will absorb and absorb pressure. They will not win the possession battle, but will have better chances up front - and when Ronaldo and Nani have those breaks - there is nobody I will feel more confident on the ball. They have struggled because they have played pack back defenses - and they have been getting the ball to shallow and need to make 30 yard runs to get in the box against multiple defenders. I just see them having much more space, much less defenders - and they will take advantage.
Ronoldo refused to play defense. Against Denmark - it was amazing. He NEVER drops back, which leaves tons of space in the midfield on his side. Denmark was unable to take advantage of this - and of course - he was pretty much not able to take advantage of his offensive position either. But I see this as being the key to Portugal scoring here - he will be annoyingly high but once Portugal get the ball, I expect there to be immediate 25 yard passes up to him. He should have plenty of opportunity to redeem himself on the offensive end in this one - with far less pressure and far less men waiting for him.
Portugals defense has been good - Pepe, Contrao, and Alves have played well - and yes they did shut off a few times against Denmark but they were very solid against Germany. Contrao has really had an impact on games going forward - but I dont think we will see him in such a rush to get forward in this one - I think instead the back line will pick their heads up to see a waiting Ronaldo and make the pass back to front - only to sit back and wait to defend the next Dutch attack.
Im on Portugal PK +103 for 4 units. Most likely result Portugal 2 Holland 1.
Well, getting possesion is a defensive task and I thought I was commenting on the turnover issue which happens when Italy actually has possesion, so a little confused...
I think your trying to say less turnovers leads to more possesions leads to more chances. That is not true, a lot of the time it happens a team with less possesion gets more and especially bigger chances, because they give a high risk/high reward type of pass.
Well, getting possesion is a defensive task and I thought I was commenting on the turnover issue which happens when Italy actually has possesion, so a little confused...
I think your trying to say less turnovers leads to more possesions leads to more chances. That is not true, a lot of the time it happens a team with less possesion gets more and especially bigger chances, because they give a high risk/high reward type of pass.
But the problem with Italy's turnovers has been the position they have turned it over from, and how exposed it leaves them almost immediately. Go back and watch the Spain game. There were throw ins and free kicks that the Italians just inexplicably gave away that IMMEDIATELY put them at risk of a goal. Croatia was similar.
I understand your point - although in this case the turnovers were not harmless. It is fine to turn the ball over in an offensive position when you are fortified on defense, but to give the ball away in the midfield when you are pusing your outside fullbacks up on almost every possession - is suicide. Counters have too much space.
In this formation that Italy is using - they need possession and cant turn it over. They are too vulnerable at the back. What is the point of playing 3 in the back if not to give yourself an extra players in the offensive side of the field - which mean opportunities through possession.
While I understand your point, I dont feel like it applies to this Italian team - go back and watch.
GL to you too.
Results:
10 - 3.5 - 2 WLP
+10.70 units
1. Greece +.5 at +112 1 unit - WIN
2. Russia to win at +128 for 3 units - WIN
3. Dutch -170 for 2 units - LOSS
4. Germany -.5 -105 for 1 unit - WIN
5. Germany under 2.5 -107 for 1 unit - WIN
6. Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units - WIN
7. Croatia -.5 +120 for 1.5 units - WIN
8. France PK -120 5 units - PUSH
9. Swe/Ukr over 2 -126 3 units - WIN
10. Russia +142 3 units - LOSS
11. Czech PK and -.5 +108 1.5 units - WIN
12. Portugal -.5 +102 for 2 units - WIN
13. Italy Pk and -.5 for 4 units - HALF LOSS
14. Spain -1.5 -110 for 2 units - WIN
15. Ukr/Fra over 2 -120 3 units - PUSH
16. Sweden +.5 -130 1 unit - LOSS
17. Rus/Gre - No bet
18. Pol/Cze - No bet
Futures:
Italy to win the tournament +1425. 2 units
England to come in last in group D anywhere from +500 to +600. 3 units
England not to win the group at -210. 2 units
England to go under 5.5 points in the group anywhere from PK to -150. 3 units
Ukraine to advance from group D +145. 2 units
Russia to win group A +170. 3 units Republic of Ireland to finish last in Group C -125. 3 units.
Denmark to finish last in group B -167. 2 units.
Upcoming:
19. Germany / Denmark: You kind of have to analyze these remaining group games in pairs. What happens in one game certainly affects the strategy in the other. Germany certainly are better than -130 against Denmark. If this was the 2nd group game, I would have Germany - no brainer.
In almost every scenario I come up with, I feel like Germany will not be playing for a draw. Low has already stated that he will not be resting players - but still has to deal with the suspension of one of the best defenders so far for Germany - Jerome Boateng.
On the other side - Denmark also have their own injuries to deal with - impact players Rommendahl and Zimling are out.
I just see problems on both sides of the defense - and the one thing Denmark has impressed me with is their finishing. I think there will be chances on both sides of the field. Im on the over 2.5 -115 for 2 units. Most likely result Germany 3 Denmark 1.
20. Portugal / Netherlands: I am reversing course on this one. I have seen enough of the Dutch to know that the kind of problems they have at the back are not solved overnight. Now - add to that their need to win by 2 goals - and it makes them very vulnerable.
"We need Germany to win but we know from the start we have to win by two goals and I will keep that in mind," said Dutch boss Bert van Marwijk.
"We have to go for it, that's what the tactics are based on. The tactics will reflect that situation."
So I am assuming this means that we will most likely see Huntelaar and Van Der Vart start - and at least Van Bommel and most likely Affelay will be the casualties. But the problem for me is that in the 65 minutes so far in the tournament that they have played this formation has been no improvement over their standard formation. This is a disjointed team - sometimes these situations come down to simple things - and I just see this team as the France of the last WC. There are stories of infighting, Robben was arguing with Van Marwijk for a lot of the second half before being yanked - not to mention his total lack of effectiveness. Im pretty sure that everyone on the planet is aware of his cutback move from the flank to shoot a bender to the far post that is on target one out of every 50.
Portugal will absorb and absorb pressure. They will not win the possession battle, but will have better chances up front - and when Ronaldo and Nani have those breaks - there is nobody I will feel more confident on the ball. They have struggled because they have played pack back defenses - and they have been getting the ball to shallow and need to make 30 yard runs to get in the box against multiple defenders. I just see them having much more space, much less defenders - and they will take advantage.
Ronoldo refused to play defense. Against Denmark - it was amazing. He NEVER drops back, which leaves tons of space in the midfield on his side. Denmark was unable to take advantage of this - and of course - he was pretty much not able to take advantage of his offensive position either. But I see this as being the key to Portugal scoring here - he will be annoyingly high but once Portugal get the ball, I expect there to be immediate 25 yard passes up to him. He should have plenty of opportunity to redeem himself on the offensive end in this one - with far less pressure and far less men waiting for him.
Portugals defense has been good - Pepe, Contrao, and Alves have played well - and yes they did shut off a few times against Denmark but they were very solid against Germany. Contrao has really had an impact on games going forward - but I dont think we will see him in such a rush to get forward in this one - I think instead the back line will pick their heads up to see a waiting Ronaldo and make the pass back to front - only to sit back and wait to defend the next Dutch attack.
Im on Portugal PK +103 for 4 units. Most likely result Portugal 2 Holland 1.
I don't think I ever remember seeing such an informative thread here
Do you ever remember a SOCCER match that finished with that golden of a scoring opportunity
I don't think I ever remember seeing such an informative thread here Do you ever remember a SOCCER match that finished with that golden of a scoring opportunity
Agree with everything said abount van..
Thanks bro much apperiated..Keep up the good work.
But the problem with Italy's turnovers has been the position they have turned it over from, and how exposed it leaves them almost immediately. Go back and watch the Spain game. There were throw ins and free kicks that the Italians just inexplicably gave away that IMMEDIATELY put them at risk of a goal. Croatia was similar.
I understand your point - although in this case the turnovers were not harmless. It is fine to turn the ball over in an offensive position when you are fortified on defense, but to give the ball away in the midfield when you are pusing your outside fullbacks up on almost every possession - is suicide. Counters have too much space.
In this formation that Italy is using - they need possession and cant turn it over. They are too vulnerable at the back. What is the point of playing 3 in the back if not to give yourself an extra players in the offensive side of the field - which mean opportunities through possession.
While I understand your point, I dont feel like it applies to this Italian team - go back and watch.
I agree with you that Italy gave up some costly interceptions against Spain, but I do believe the factor Torres had more to do with it. Before he came on they had a pretty solid lid on the defence, but when Torres came on he showed us the weakness of the Italy defense. They can't cope with pure pace and agility. And against Croatia I didn't see a lot of chances for Croatia of those turnovers. They scored when Chiellini was caught positionally moronic and had some long distance shots.
About the 3-5-2 formation, I actually thought they would only play it against Spain, because it makes a lot of sense to get an extra defender behind two central defenders to cope with the through balls and general centrefield play of the Spanish while also creating spaces where Spain is vulnerable, in the corners. I didn't see a lot of use for it against Croatia, where they would have been better off in my opinion playing 4-4-2 with De Rossi playing on Modric.
You do have a point that with this formation against good teams they can get caught out on the wingback positions, but Motta should do a better job cleaning those holes.
BTW I loooooove your analysis on the Holland game and am also heavily leaning Germany over. You bring a lot of very insightful stuff to the forum and back up your picks with solid analysis, great job man.
Now lets get that dough with Portugaaaaal
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