Euro 2012....

Quote Originally Posted by spockgato:

good luck and continued success

Thanks Spock.  Write me a poem.  I need some inspiration.

Quote Originally Posted by EddieGordo:

Van when Russia cashes I'm buying a Kilo of Blow with the profits!


Then I'm gonna take the heli over to your yacht and we're gonna have a "Strippers and Coke" party like we used to in the 90's in Ibiza!  Should be a GREAT time!

Oh the 90's.  Me you, beemers, and the supermodels.  Good times.

Should we invite the kid?

Russia is living very dangerously.  I do think it is going to take more than the 1 goal we have.

Arshavins pass set up the Polish goal.

He had a 4 on 3, and gave it away.  Just lazy and terrible.

OOff.

That was a kick to the nuts.

Arshavin was great on the ball until the final pass.  Time after time, he read the wrong pass.

Several times he would win the flank - and there would be a russian standing by himself at the top fo the box but he never rolled it back.

Up until the Polish goal - Russia had them by the nuts - but they let them off the hook - and it would be argued that after theat they were lucky to draw.  But it should have never happened.

Now - imagine Greece VS Russia.  Greece HASto win.  that will be one interesting game.

That game could have been 5-5.

Well - Russia still in decent position to win the group.

Just gotta beat Greece.

I guess we should put the party on hold Eddie Gordo.

Results:
8-2-1 WLP
+10.02 units

11. Denmark / Portugal: Just a reminder – in Portugals last 5 WC and Euro games they haven’t scored a goal in 4 of them. The one that they did score – they scored 7 – and that was against N Korea. They kept this amazing streak going against Germany, coming within an inch of scoring but fate keeping the ball out of the net. This is more than just a bad streak – it is indicative of their “all star” mentality and the inability of their stars to gel and play together. Nani and Ronaldo play like the other is not even on the field. They play in wide positions that don’t end up materializing in goals – plenty of chances – but no finishing.

Denmark pulled off the upset of the tournament – and although I think if that game is played 10 times Denmark only wins 1, they picked the right day for that one. We all saw it – Im not really sure what to say that hasn’t already been said – the Dutch couldn’t finish and had one defensive lapse and that was enough.

I was surprised to see this line at Portugal -.5 at about even. I didn’t think they would be that big of a favorite. But I am sticking to my pretournament thoughts on these two teams – and sticking with my theory that the Dane defense is suspect. I must be crazy to be going with a team that cant score while giving a half goal – but I know what they are capable of – and they might just be being fed the right defense at the exact right time. This is do or die for Portugal – they must win – and I think they get it done. Portugal -.5 +102 for 2 units. (I do sense that this line will move to the better, so half is in now, half I will wait – but this is my official line for the purposes of this thread). Most likely result Portugal 2-0.

12. Germany / Netherlands: Going to keep this one short and sweet – I will be a very interested observer – but I wont have a penny on this game unless something pops up for live betting or HT, and after seeing who wins the first game (see explanation below). I just think the line is set perfectly on both the total and the side – and I think it will come down to a moment or two on one side or the other.

One thing to watch – the Denamark / Portugal game is first (at noon EST), and if Denmark wins or draws – the Dutch really must win or go home. The Dutch will be rooting for Portugal bigtime. If Portugal wins, the Dutch could draw against the Germans and still be alive – but if the Danes win or draw – the Dutch are all but eliminated without a win. Keep in mind – the first tiebreaker out of the group is HEAD TO HEAD. So if the Danes and Dutch tie in points, the Danes go through.

No bet. Most likely result Germany 1 Netherlands 1.

13.  Italy / Croatia:  Italy will feel good about themselves having the beast of the group under their belt – but knowing that the game against Croatia is a must win game.  Italy played basically 3 in the back, with the outside backs moving up almost in to winger roles when play pushed forward.  They were able to do this because of Spains lack of width (read below in Spain preview) – and because of their confidence in DeRossi to play “sweeper” and hold the back together.  This is not the Italian way, but proved very effective against compact Spain.

I question whether they will continue with this formation – but it seems from what I read that they will.  Pirlo played quarterback to perfection – feeding the ball up through space to Cassano and Balotteli – and eventually sprung DiNatale for the Italian goal.  For all of Balotellis ups and downs – the part of him I cant put up with is his lack of movement when Italy has the ball and he doesn’t.  He doesn’t seem to want to move in to space, or take a few steps to make a passing lane open for a teammate.  Some of his actions bordered on the laughable today – from the ridiculous slow motion one on one to the sublime skill he showed to keep a ball in bounds – you just don’t know what you will get.  But the substitution sparked the Italians, and DiNatale might just be in there to stay.

The giveaways from Italy give me pause.  Time after time – they cheaply gave the ball to Spain – and that will eventually cost them unless they shore that up.  Chalk it up to a first game – against the talent of Spain – and I get it, but if they think they can do that for long – they will be out of this tournament sooner rather than later.

Croatia played well against Ireland – but I feel like they got the most out of it and Ireland got the worst of it.  Modric was often pushed back in to a very defensive position – but when he got the ball he started the Croatia moves by almost always choosing the correct outlet to go to.  He wasn’t directly involved in the offense very much – but he always set up the play at the start.  Srna was the man of the match for me – totally neutralizing any Irish threat down the flank. 

I expect to see an open game – and there should be goals.  I see Italy with the possession advantage, the talent advantage, and I think this is where Croatia will sit back and try to counter – and it wont work against a defense like Italy.  Im on Italy Pk and -.5 -101 for 4 units.  Most likely result Italy 3-1.  I also like the over here – but will stick with just the Italy wager

14.  Spain / Ireland:  Spain has spent the last 4 years playing a style that has been very successful for not only winning trophies – but for the skills the Spanish players possess.  But I think their tactics have been figured out – and a blueprint has been created for containing them.

Spain and Barcelona are best when they use width and depth mixed in to the passing game.  If you look at the Italy game – you see no width and no depth – basically a blob about 20 yards by 20 yards moving up the field with 5 or 6 Spanish players trying to move the blob up the field and pass the ball in the net.  There is virtually no wing play to speak of, and there is virtually no separation between the midfield and the strikers (if there was actually a striker).  This worked several years ago – but Italy (and Chelsea) showed that even when faced with the best players in the world, with the most potent passing attack in the world – a one dimentional offense that goes up the middle every time can be contained.  Pack it in, pack it back, and defend in numbers.

Once down a goal to Italy – Spain quickly countered – but it was the same type of move they tried all game – it just happened to spring through and work.  Right afterwards – they brought in Navas for Silva – which was obviously a move to bring width.  Right away – you could see the moves up the right flank with Navas – but the playmaker Silva was gone – and Navas had no target for anything in the middle because of the lack of striker.  Hence – enter Torres – which was really the game changer for me.