Question for you, I know shit about Soccer but just going off what has happened up until this point doesnt Russia/Poland line seem alot like Denmark/Dutch to you? It would seem there would be alot of people jumping on Russians after first game agianst what I thought was a better team in the Czechs, maybe draw is the play? As I said I no jack about Soccer so assume I am reading to much into this. Thanks and BOL rest of the way.
Sorry guys - very limited time. Appreciate all of the comments, I will get to them all in the morning.
I also am in the process of writing up Wed and Thurs games.....
Strange day - I feel good but that France game still has me frustrated. Moving on....
Results:
7-1-1 WLP
+11.36 units
1. Greece +.5 at +112 1 unit - WIN
2. Russia to win at +128 for 3 units - WIN
3. Dutch -170 for 2 units - LOSS
4. Germany -.5 -105 for 1 unit - WIN
5. Germany under 2.5 -107 for 1 unit - WIN
6. Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units - WIN
7. Croatia -.5 +120 for 1.5 units - WIN
8. France PK -120 5 units - PUSH
9. Swe/Ukr over 2 -126 3 units - WIN
Futures:
Italy to win the tournament +1425. 2 units
England to come in last in group D anywhere from +500 to +600. 3 units
England not to win the group at -210. 2 units
England to go under 5.5 points in the group anywhere from PK to -150. 3 units
Ukraine to advance from group D +145. 2 units
Russia to win group A +170. 3 units
Republic of Ireland to finish last in Group C -125. 3 units.
Denmark to finish last in group B -167. 2 units.
Upcoming:
9. Poland / Russia - Poland came out strong - and played a great first 30 minutes against the Greeks. And then the wall started crumbling. Piece by piece - the Greeks fought their way back in to the game - even after losing a man unjustly. When it was 10 on 11, Poland were at their worst.
Poland abused the right side in that period - overlapping and overwhelming the Greeks with the Dortmund trio down that flank - but it all evaporated after the Greeks organized. There was no plan at that point - everything was long and mostly hopeful that Lewandowski could come up with something on his own. They really struggled once the Greeks settled in to a 4 man defense and 4 man midfield.
We all saw what Russia is capable of. I was actually surprised at the lapse they had in the first 20 minutes of the 2nd half - when the Czechs looked their best. It just seems like the russians are capable of losing the plot at any time during a game - and their old defensive issues can come back.
I like Russia in this game for the right reasons. Im not on them because they won the first game and Poland looked mediocre - I am on them because I liked Russia pre-tournament - and nothing I have seen has made me change my mind. I realize this could be seen as a "square" bet - but so be it - I just see a major advantage all over the field with a Russian team in full form. Once again - would Poland have even qualified for this tournament if they werent hosting? I dont think so.
Im going to take Russia to win outright, and forego the PK handicap on this one. I see goals here - and Im willing to go for it. Russia +142 risking 3 units. Most likely result Russia 2-0.
10. Czech / Greece - Greece looked great in playing from behind, and were somewhat unlucky to not win against Poland. Greece really flipped the switch when Salpingidis came in at HT - he was the spark that they needed. The typically organized Greeks were nowhere to be found in the first 30 minutes - playing horrendous 15 yard gap zig zag back lines that led to chance after chance for Poland.
Greek starting central defender Avram Papadopolous ruptured his ACL after 15 minutes - but stayed in the game for another 20 or so. But he is out. Sokratis (im not going to butcher his last name) is also on the bench because of suspension. But you might argue that they were better without these 2 guys - the loss of Papadolpolous is a big one - on a side that plays out of the back like the Greeks do - he is the quarterback.
The Czechs lost their way against Russia. They were destroyed at their own game - the quick counterattack. Russia got out early and when the Czechs tried to change tactics - it just didnt work for them. Russias pressure on the ball turned it over way too much - Rosicky was pushed back and back by Russia - almost to the point where he was invisible. Once Hubschman was brought in as a sub - they worked much better together - but the task was too tall at that point.
I see the Czechs getting back to what they do - counterattacking - which is exactly what the Greeks do as well. Hubschman should start - and take the pressure off of Rosicky so that he can sit in a more offensive position.
Im going to be on the Czechs at Pk and -.5 +108 for 1.5 units. I could easily see a low scoring draw here - so I feel like covering half of the wager on a draw is smart. Czechs find a way to get it done - most likely result Czech 1-0.
11. Denmark / Portugal: Just a reminder – in Portugals last 5 WC and Euro games they haven’t scored a goal in 4 of them. The one that they did score – they scored 7 – and that was against N Korea. They kept this amazing streak going against Germany, coming within an inch of scoring but fate keeping the ball out of the net. This is more than just a bad streak – it is indicative of their “all star” mentality and the inability of their stars to gel and play together. Nani and Ronaldo play like the other is not even on the field. They play in wide positions that don’t end up materializing in goals – plenty of chances – but no finishing.
Denmark pulled off the upset of the tournament – and although I think if that game is played 10 times Denmark only wins 1, they picked the right day for that one. We all saw it – Im not really sure what to say that hasn’t already been said – the Dutch couldn’t finish and had one defensive lapse and that was enough.
I was surprised to see this line at Portugal -.5 at about even. I didn’t think they would be that big of a favorite. But I am sticking to my pretournament thoughts on these two teams – and sticking with my theory that the Dane defense is suspect. I must be crazy to be going with a team that cant score while giving a half goal – but I know what they are capable of – and they might just be being fed the right defense at the exact right time. This is do or die for Portugal – they must win – and I think they get it done. Portugal -.5 +102 for 2 units. (I do sense that this line will move to the better, so half is in now, half I will wait – but this is my official line for the purposes of this thread). Most likely result Portugal 2-0.
12. Germany / Netherlands: Going to keep this one short and sweet – I will be a very interested observer – but I wont have a penny on this game unless something pops up for live betting or HT, and after seeing who wins the first game (see explanation below). I just think the line is set perfectly on both the total and the side – and I think it will come down to a moment or two on one side or the other.
One thing to watch – the Denamark / Portugal game is first (at noon EST), and if Denmark wins or draws – the Dutch really must win or go home. The Dutch will be rooting for Portugal bigtime. If Portugal wins, the Dutch could draw against the Germans and still be alive – but if the Danes win or draw – the Dutch are all but eliminated without a win. Keep in mind – the first tiebreaker out of the group is HEAD TO HEAD. So if the Danes and Dutch tie in points, the Danes go through.
No bet. Most likely result Germany 1 Netherlands 1.
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