Oct 2 1W-0L (+$200)Oct 3 4W-10L (-$685) 20W-30L (+$35) YTD.All the draw/ml plays killed me on Oct 3rd. I struggle on how to bet dogs in soccer. I'm not sure whether I should just play them on the Asian line or sprinkle a little on the ml and then you also have the draw possibility. I'd welcome any advice or opinions from any of the soccer cappers on how they play dogs and if it's worth playing larger money lines and dogs. Soccer really is a whole different animal as far as betting goes because of the draw possibility. Thanks!Parma pk +100
I don't have the numbers to proof my point, but I feel that football (European) is completely different from betting on American sports because of one reason: there are no salary caps. I once read a research that the big American sports total salary spend by a club was a bad predictor of what position a team would end up in the ranking at the end of the season. For football (European) this was the other way around: Total salary spend was a very good predictor of the final standings. So the point I want to make is that the differences between teams in football are so much bigger than in the american sports that I think the favorites are even undervalued. Just look at the big teams like Manchester City, Liverpool, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus, Ajax, PSV; they barely lose any matches in their domestic leagues. So my strategy is to look for home favs in very good spots. Although yesterday Fenerbahce screwed me over: 24 attempts and still lose 0-1. Well that can happen.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bigdoubleplay:
Oct 2 1W-0L (+$200)Oct 3 4W-10L (-$685) 20W-30L (+$35) YTD.All the draw/ml plays killed me on Oct 3rd. I struggle on how to bet dogs in soccer. I'm not sure whether I should just play them on the Asian line or sprinkle a little on the ml and then you also have the draw possibility. I'd welcome any advice or opinions from any of the soccer cappers on how they play dogs and if it's worth playing larger money lines and dogs. Soccer really is a whole different animal as far as betting goes because of the draw possibility. Thanks!Parma pk +100
I don't have the numbers to proof my point, but I feel that football (European) is completely different from betting on American sports because of one reason: there are no salary caps. I once read a research that the big American sports total salary spend by a club was a bad predictor of what position a team would end up in the ranking at the end of the season. For football (European) this was the other way around: Total salary spend was a very good predictor of the final standings. So the point I want to make is that the differences between teams in football are so much bigger than in the american sports that I think the favorites are even undervalued. Just look at the big teams like Manchester City, Liverpool, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus, Ajax, PSV; they barely lose any matches in their domestic leagues. So my strategy is to look for home favs in very good spots. Although yesterday Fenerbahce screwed me over: 24 attempts and still lose 0-1. Well that can happen.
JVH it's funny you mention that. I was reading an article a couple of weeks ago about how soccer dogs aren't really worth the value your getting with them in the long run especially compared to the main American sports. Now obviously dogs do win in soccer so you gotta pick your spots. The article was basically saying in the long run it's really fools gold and broke it down a lot more eloquently and scientifically than I ever could attempt to here. It never mentioned anything about salary caps but i could definitely see that playing a role. Thanks for the input and GL to you!
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JVH it's funny you mention that. I was reading an article a couple of weeks ago about how soccer dogs aren't really worth the value your getting with them in the long run especially compared to the main American sports. Now obviously dogs do win in soccer so you gotta pick your spots. The article was basically saying in the long run it's really fools gold and broke it down a lot more eloquently and scientifically than I ever could attempt to here. It never mentioned anything about salary caps but i could definitely see that playing a role. Thanks for the input and GL to you!
JVH it's funny you mention that. I was reading an article a couple of weeks ago about how soccer dogs aren't really worth the value your getting with them in the long run especially compared to the main American sports. Now obviously dogs do win in soccer so you gotta pick your spots. The article was basically saying in the long run it's really fools gold and broke it down a lot more eloquently and scientifically than I ever could attempt to here. It never mentioned anything about salary caps but i could definitely see that playing a role. Thanks for the input and GL to you!
There is this concept called 'the favorite longshot bias'. Might be worth looking into that. Gl with your picks!
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Quote Originally Posted by Bigdoubleplay:
JVH it's funny you mention that. I was reading an article a couple of weeks ago about how soccer dogs aren't really worth the value your getting with them in the long run especially compared to the main American sports. Now obviously dogs do win in soccer so you gotta pick your spots. The article was basically saying in the long run it's really fools gold and broke it down a lot more eloquently and scientifically than I ever could attempt to here. It never mentioned anything about salary caps but i could definitely see that playing a role. Thanks for the input and GL to you!
There is this concept called 'the favorite longshot bias'. Might be worth looking into that. Gl with your picks!
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