takethecannolis

@Midnight1

 Absolutely true!
Especially if Johnny V is on board

I had this horse on my radar since the Fall of 2024. Knowing people in the game, the trainer very humbly said he had a special horse. I want to again thank the Covers Crew for the kudos given this way for my Derby write up. For the Belmont Stakes, the pick is the same.

Sovereignty made his trip perfect in Louisville because he was the best horse. Journalism ran really well in the Derby, but was second best. Journalism made a terrific move in the stretch of the Preakness, but was life and death to run down a longshot. I believe the trouble he encountered was because he was not good enough early to get position. Journalism is good, but he’s not Sovereignty. Can Rodriguez go gate to wire? I believe Mott’s charge can run him down.

Sovereignty won at Gulfstream, one of the shortest stretch runs in the country. He won at Churchill, one of the longest stretch runs in the country. Saratoga is almost 64 yards further than GP. This guy is special.          

Fantastic trainer. Underrated jockey, who absolutely fits this horse. On Saturday, I’m physically in attendance at Saratoga, watching Sovereignty.

Wagering wise? I’m not getting the 7-1 from the Derby. Sovereignty owes me nothing after his win in Kentucky. If he is 2-1 or more…win bet. May also fool around with the undercard, leading up to horizontal possibilities with my selection.   

Good luck all!

@takethecannolis

 24-1…..????
Horses can’t read.

CD has a really good card today and it’s fast and firm.

My eyes are on a colt in race 10, the Grade 3 Blame Stakes. Scratched down to a field of 7, I still believe I’ll get at least 6-1 on #10 Tennessee Lamb.         

This 4 year old is 3 for 4 since adding blinkers, only loss on the turf. He went from a NW 1x to a Grade 3 win in his last. Bred to run all day, the 1 1/8 should be no problem. The morning line first and third choices appear to be distance challenged. The second choice, Mystik Dan, could fire here. Yes, he won the Derby on this oval, but nothing since. If history was meant to repeat itself, librarians would be millionaires.

Good luck all. Heading to Saratoga next week!

Preakness 150 is on the docket this Saturday. I went through the PPs a few times. I watched replays.           

I got nothing. Just like Sovereignty, I am skipping the Preakness.

There is a race on the undercard that hit me between the eyes. The Maryland Sprint Stakes is absolutely loaded with speed. Whenever a track has a marquee day, it may be a pool table. First in, first out. I’m counting on a fair racetrack. If so…

I’m interested in Ninetyprcentmaddie. He is the only entrant in the field that shows a good last 1/8th. One start back off a layoff that should sharpen him up. The entries for this Stakes closed the day after his return race and the owners dove in. Stakes placed in graded sprint. If the track is off, he shows a nice 48.3 breeze on off going recently, 2 of 16. Lastly, morning line of 15-1. 

Good luck all!

@justliketoplay

 Thank you and enjoy your winnings!

@justliketoplay

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. 

Glad you hopped on board.

@takethecannolis

 Post parade shows me 7/ 8/ 12/ 13

Good luck

# 10 Nysos…

Three starts to begin the career and not seen in 15 months. Each start won in a jog. Baffert just happens to pick today to bring him back. Still a colt. Does the Silver Fox want to show CD that he’s still got it? Could be a baby Flightline.

The fan in me would love to see Nysos win by10. The bettor in me is putting a few sheckles on Banishing.

Good luck all

I’m gonna just cut to the chase. In my decades of wagering on football and horse racing, I’ve had fun trying to out think everyone. “Summa times you win, and summa times you lose”. Here’s my latest example.

The horse I am on for the Derby broke his maiden in a Grade 3 stakes, coming from last at the top of the stretch to win by by 5 lengths. In his third start. First time routing from the 10 post. His time from the three quarters to the mile mark was 23.3. He then was on the shelf for 4 months. He came back and ran in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. In only his fourth start, he reached for the wire and got up in the final strides as he ran down the leader. Broke his maiden in a Grade 3. Wins a Grade 2 off a layoff.         

Time for the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Without his regular rider, who was injured, a nice rally in the stretch fell short. OK. It was a prep for the equine Super Bowl. The regular rider is healthy and back on board.        

The trainer of this colt trained his second and third dam. Hall of Famer. The post is perfect. The rider is so patient. Maybe you remember how patiently he rode Cody’s Wish in his races? And if the track is off, the bloodlines indicate that this colt can swim!

Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado give Godolphin their first Kentucky Derby winner with Sovereignty.

Thanks for staying with, if you did, my ramblings. I’ll fool around with some horizontal exotic wagers, but my focus is on a win & place wager. Good luck all! Have fun. Hope my posts gave a little insight.

Sandman is a tough take for me on Saturday. He is a very quirky horse. The fact that there will be 150,000 fans in attendance. Not great for Sandman. Lastly, his figures point to, in my observation, a bounce or regression in the Derby.

Good luck!

@vetdrm

 Stay with your convictions. I’m against for three reasons…

- he had an incredible set up in his last race where early fractions were quick

-he’s quirky. What happens in front of 140,000 in attendance?            

- numbers indicate he will bounce

Just like the Super Bowl. We all have opinions. If you have the patience and want to watch the warm ups….

-look for horses that are “washed out”, sweating tooooo much. There are horses that will “lose it” Saturday. Not a good sign

- one sign that most do not know. Sounds like a reach. When the horses come on the track, before they begin their gallop, watch how closely their front and back hooves come within each other. The closer, the better. It is a reflection of how they are feeling.

Good luck!

It truly is the worst betting race of the year, but we all want to play it! Bombs away? Future Triple Crown winner?

So, my first intuitive feeling on this years race is going against Journalism.
Why?

The field size in his last 4 races averaged 6.75 starters. He will now be entering the gate against 19 other horses.

 I’m passing.

To be continued…

Consider every horse that Pietro Moran and Sofia Vives have under saddle

Best of luck!

Shedeur Sanders will make Kordell Stewart look like Roger Staubach… according to reports

Mike Smith was here for a reason , not for a season 

I’m putting on my Dirty Harry persona today…

Do you feel lucky today? Do ya?        

In the 12th race feature at the Big A, my attention is with the 11 horse…Statesman.

West Point bought this guy for $200k at the Fasig Tipton Sales. Physically, he’s a big boy. He will be suited for this two turn distance and the rider is 2 for 2 on his back. There will be speed to run at and he should be coming on the scene at the 1/8 pole. 

Good luck all!

Houston vs Tennessee has two guys that usually play not to lose in a big game, instead of playing to win. I’m siding with Barnes, who might have his last chance at the buffet line with the Vols. He would love to take down Houston, since he coached the Longhorns back in the day.

Michigan State vs Auburn is interesting as these schools have coaches who know how to win in March. On paper, grabbing the points with Sparty is my lean. Free throw shooting, rebounding, and a disciplined team checks the boxes here.

Good luck all!

@gambleforfood

 Woman gets pulled over by highway patrol.

Officer asks her last name.

She says “Gosuh”

The officer asks for her first name.

She responded “Frieda”

The officer, to confirm, repeats….So, your name is Frieda Gosuh?   So she says, thanks, bye bye!     

Bama shot lights out the other night. Ask any guy who played ball at a high level…did you shoot great from the outside at a place where you had done it before? Check.

Alabama also can crash the boards.

Duke has D.

The one thing that is disconcerting is the under/ over line is low.

 I would wait until Sunday for more action, especially if you had TT ML

Good luck!