Derby horses Im on the fence about or now having second thoughts

 Sandman. Biggest mystery for me in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.  Last time I went to the Kentucky Derby 2007 and actually had the winner, it was won by Street Sense who is this horses sire. I think this horse is still green.

Started watching him after he gained ground coming in 3rd in the Gr 3 Street Sense. Followed that with a win in a 125 allowance. In the Southwest where he broke terrible he came out of the clouds that day, back 9 lengths heading into the stretch and still managed to finish 2nd behind Sovereignty and Tistastic but showed this horses grit. Then I picked him to win the Rebel.

Out of the gate with Torres aboard he brought him back farther and farther. By the time he got him going he had way to much ground to make up finishing 3rd. So Casse switches to Jose Ortiz where he was brilliant finishing 1st with his highest speed beyer 103.

Now food for thought

17 post  0-45. Marc Casse as a trainer 0-10. Horse sired by Tapit 0-14 in the Derby. That spells 0-69 

Maybe discard all of that nonsense and just base this horse on his past performance.  Anyone have him in your top three or four?

@vetdrm

 Stay with your convictions. I’m against for three reasons…

- he had an incredible set up in his last race where early fractions were quick

-he’s quirky. What happens in front of 140,000 in attendance?            

- numbers indicate he will bounce

Just like the Super Bowl. We all have opinions. If you have the patience and want to watch the warm ups….

-look for horses that are “washed out”, sweating tooooo much. There are horses that will “lose it” Saturday. Not a good sign

- one sign that most do not know. Sounds like a reach. When the horses come on the track, before they begin their gallop, watch how closely their front and back hooves come within each other. The closer, the better. It is a reflection of how they are feeling.

Good luck!

I was on him too.. but leaning 3rd or 4th at best now… the Japanese rider …with horse out of American pharaoh has caught my eye… not sure favorite is that much better.. that so called racing is fast.. but no traffic for him… leaning sovreinty and the burlap name… burnham something… I will say though I have been playing the Ortiz brothers to make superfecta for a few years now… down prob 2 grand as those can get expensive… but they are due.  Also kinda like jockey who won last year.. he knows that track well… sorry I don’t know all the names.. but I think most can get my jist.  Brian Hernandez I believe is jockey… Hebrides church well.   Anyway.. always fun to try and figure the future. 

I didn't care for the way he lugged out in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby.

@Tygermyke

 Hi Myke! Hope all is well.

@takethecannolis

 Post parade shows me 7/ 8/ 12/ 13

Good luck