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@fts1409 Are you sure FSU will be more motivated than UGA? That's the question. |
fts1409 | 6 |
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Okay the line opened at W Ky favored by 4.5 and now Old D is favored by 4.5 That is a move of 9 points. What gives? All I see is that both teams suck and both teams have lots of opt outs. Does anyone know what's going on here? Thanks. |
Super_Chicken | 18 |
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@kcchief1970 My understanding is that he is no longer listed on the roster and so people assume he won't play in the bowl. But he has not officially announced that yet. There is still a small chance he could play. |
kcchief1970 | 3 |
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@jp1lsu There is a perception by the public that these games are usually close and that you can "throw away the record books". But that is simply not true. Going back to the year 2000 and looking at those 23 games, the better team usually prevails. There have been 9 of those games decided by single digits and 14 games decided by 10 points or more. In fact, 7 of those games were decided by 21 or more, and one game was 45-0. But the fact is these teams are usually more evenly matched than this year. This year Ole Miss has been far superior all year long and I expect them to win by at least 2 TDs. I think the line movement is because the public simply misunderstands this rivalry and the margins of victory so there was some early money on Ms State. |
jp1lsu | 7 |
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@FredLeonard
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FredLeonard | 2 |
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@jezhead I'm going with Ole Miss -10 in this one. Ole Miss has been a far superior team all season long with their only two losses coming to Alabama and Georgia. State has been blown out five times this year and I think it will happen again tonight. This is also a revenge game for the Rebels as State won last year, and I think OM has a huge coaching advantage in this one as well as an obvious talent advantage. Scores vs common opponents: Ole Miss Ms State Alabama 10-24 (L) 17-40 (L) LSU 55-49 14-41 (L) Arkansas 27-20 7-3 Auburn 28-21 13-27 (L) Texas A&M 38-35 10-51 (L)
Good luck with your bets. |
jezhead | 4 |
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@TheLorenaKid I don't know who will start at QB for A&M. Johnson is listed as questionable with hurt ribs. |
Super_Chicken | 15 |
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@JS12 Yes A&M has injury issues at QB. Conner Weigman got hurt early in the year and Max Johnson stepped in. Johnson now has an undisclosed injury and is listed as "questionable" for Saturday. I don't have any info on the next man up. |
Super_Chicken | 15 |
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This is an interesting match-up between an offensive team and a defensive team. Neither team is in contention for any conference title and neither team has any special motivation. The kickoff is at 11 AM and LSU historically plays much better at night. Their fans are not properly lubricated before lunch. But the odds-makers favor teams with a high scoring offense, especially those with a Heisman contender, and that is why the line is LSU -11. I think a fair line in this game should be more like LSU -6, so I will gladly take the 11 points. Let's compare common opponents: A&M LSU Auburn 27-10 48-18 Arkansas 34-22 34-31 Alabama 20-26 (L) 28-42 (L) Ole Miss 35-38 (L) 49-55 (L) Ms State 51-10 41-14
Looks like two evenly matched teams to me. Thoughts?
Super Chicken |
Super_Chicken | 15 |
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@sidthetallkid I agree. I think FSU has better players top to bottom and better coaching. I expect them to win by at least 2 TDs. |
sidthetallkid | 9 |
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@davemsh Tulane beat them last year in the Cotton Bowl. |
1969USC | 17 |
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Bridge you are a good capper but I must ask - is it unusual for your smaller plays to outperform your Bridge plays? That seems to have happened most of the year and continues to happen. What about past seasons?
No disrespect and thanks in advance.
Super Chicken
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Bridge1 | 32 |
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I'm seeing 14.5 at most places now. |
jimrockford22 | 14 |
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@1969USC So you just assume he would leave Oxford for another scary ride at USC? After the way he was treated there last time? Have you ever been to Ole Miss or Oxford? It is extremely nice and he is being paid very well and the team is 9-2. And his daughter and parents are settled there and love it. Just sayin -- don't assume. |
1969USC | 17 |
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@UGACLP1995 And the stats were even more embarrassing than the score. It was a total beat down. But you know, they hired Hugh Freeze and they should have known that he has a history of beating one or two teams every year that he isn't expected to beat, but then he has at least one of these "shit the bed" games every year. That is his pattern. |
UGACLP1995 | 10 |
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Nice work TD, I always enjoy your threads. Where are you getting these early lines? I was expecting the Ole Miss vs State line to be around 7.
Thanks. |
TD21 | 47 |
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I live in Oxford, MS and am an Ole Miss alumnus. I have attended all the OM home games since 1968. I see the line this week is OM -25 to 25.5 and I think that is a little high. This is a sandwich game for Ole Miss, right between Auburn (which was a huge game with Hugh Freeze now there) and Texas A&M, which is a "must" win game for the Rebels. And after A&M comes Georgia in Athens. So I don't expect a spirited effort against Vanderbilt. I look for Ole Miss to run the ball a lot and maybe even rest some starters. Vandy is not a great team but they haven't lost by more than 24 all year. Here are their scores in their other SEC games (all losses): KY 28-45, MO 21-38, FLA 14-38, GA 20-37. Plus Vandy had a bye week last week and will come in well rested. Of course Ole Miss could possibly blow them out (that's why they call it gambling) but if the line is over 23 I would certainly take the points in this one. These are my thoughts. Good luck with your wagers. Super Chicken
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Super_Chicken | 6 |
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@WahooS I think the line (Ole Miss -6.5) is about right on this one. Auburn has some talent but they are hurting at QB. Regardless I think Hugh Freeze will probably find a way to keep this one close. But the Rebels likely have too much firepower in the end and will win the game. |
Super_Chicken | 18 |
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Hey guys, I don't post too often but I'm a long time Covers addict. I love college football and I see value in this game. Here we have two teams, one strong on defense and one strong on offense, who are very evenly matched and the current line is USC -7 but that seems way too much. I think the line should be more like USC -3. Utah has played a tougher schedule. They’ve played three pretty good teams (Florida, UCLA and Oregon State) and beaten two of them. USC has played only two decent teams (Colorado and Notre Dame) and beaten one of them. And I'm not sure how much you can read into that Colorado win, since the Buffalos have been so unpredictable. USC is coming off a big emotional loss to Notre Dame (48-20, not very close) and now they have to get their heads on straight and play a very physical Utah team. That's quite a challenge. I will gladly take the 7 points here, but I welcome feedback and insight from the top cappers on Covers.
Thanks.
Super Chicken
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Super_Chicken | 18 |
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Love the TCU write up. Thanks. |
CFBLMONSTER | 20 |
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