PeAceMaKer7690

Course looks tricky.

Wind is picking up.

Henley hits it low under the wind. You can see when they report max apex of the shots. Henley's is lowest. Nice advantage for him.

He also kills in easy conditions. 

With advantage of hitting in down fairway consistently, this rough is penile.

I think Henley wins.

I just put $250 on all the long shots so hoping someone shoots 59 and beats Fleetwood.

He has 2 bogies through 3. Love the storyline Fleetwood can't finish on PGA tour.

I know he will get a win one of these days, but I hope it isn't today.

Great summation.

Sounds like if you were to bet it is Pacer +7

There are 12 players within 2 shots of each other (-6 to -8)

4 players are out ahead (-11 to -16)

What if we get a 1/100 chance tomorrow that one the pack finds a way ahead? 1/1000 chance we get a 59?

Let's take a small chance. Scheffler, JT, Hovland can do a miracle if Fleetwood stays at -16. 

Just for fun. $20 on each of them.

It's a great story line.

Remember the story line? 

Fleetwood doesn't finish.

Good for him if he does.

Great funny story if he doesn't it (if one can have perspective)

One thing that has my attention:

Scheffler double bogied two holes.

Thomas quadruple bogied a hole. 

This "Easy" course can chew players up on an easy day. Two players that are elite golfers, not to mention both well suited for this course, can struggle.

If the odds going in tomorrow are Fleetwood vs the rest, I might take a chance on a few longshots.

If Fleetwood gets chewed up, then a player 6, even perhaps 7, dare I say 8 shots are in contention.

If this happens, expect players in 2nd-4th to score -4. Maybe they even drag their feet at -3 (Another if, one could easily should another good round).

So that leaves the winning score at perhaps -18 or -19. I can see a player at -7 today shooting -8, -9 or -10 tomorrow. 

The truth is, the round 2 leaders struggled (except Fleetwood). This isn't a high scoring affair yet.

Who played well in this easy conditions? Look at players who had good days 1 and 3. Dock players who had a good round 2.

Dock Fleetwood, McCarthy, Harman, and Day. They like this course windy and difficult. 

Who had a good R1 and R3 (the good conditions?):

Fleetwood -4, -6

Henley -2, -9

Bradley -6, -6

Harman -4, -5

Clark -6, -4

Scheffler -8, +2

Eckroat -8, E

McIlroy -6, -2

J Day -4, -3

Fleetwood, Henley, and Bradley all look good, all playing good.

BUT Fleetwood and Bradley only at -13. Only one far ahead is Fleetwood 

So if they shoot -4s, and Fleetwood does something stupid, the question is how much Fleetwood beats -17 by. 

What are the odds a player shoots -8 or better? Well 3/8 players above have done it. I think odds are better than 100-1. 

I'll take a chance on Clark at 300-1, McIlroy 250-1, Harman 250 -1, Scheffler 80-1, J Day 16-1.

Parlay with Pacers covering (or even outright!) for some fun.

On Saturday, Fleetwood beat JT by 6 strokes. On a single hole! On the 13th hole, JT scored a quadruple bogie 9. Fleetwood eagled for a 3. 

Talk about strokes gain/los heads up!

I'd like for Morikawa to make a run up the board Saturday. With easier conditions expected this weekend, I think he has better than mid-tier change to gain a few shots on the leaders. Only 22 players have better scores, the leader 7 shots ahead, and half and all but 8 of those players are within 3 shots. 

I liked JT after round 1 (-3) and wanted to take him, but I didn't wake up earlier to make the bet.

I got Cantlay today who I also liked. Selfishly hope Cantlay beats out JT though JT is bred for this course. 

Both JT and Fleetwood were fairly priced after round 1 between 25 - 35 each. I didn't take Fleetwood either though.

Made a Henley bet as well, he is doing as expected and has a win already this year. 

Don't count out Glover he has course history and sits in T13. With several wins, one more good day and he is in contention. At 250-1 (or higher depending when you got him) he is good value.

Hall is a birdie machine in easy scoring conditions. Don' be surprised if he hangs around, despite his lack of T5s.

I've got Jaeger and Burns with long shot if either of them feels like posting a -9.  

There were great odds available for these guys all day.

The books did not respect the variance with the delay and rain.

I sadly had no cash to bet.

Burns hurt me to. I got him at 70-1.

I wish he took a drop from the water ruling instead of hitting it.

Love Lowry at 45-1. ARe you kidding me? In form, has course history, and great fit for hard courses. 

McIlroy is good at 12-1. You said link style, nice.

I don't like Rahm at his price.

I love Bradley at 90-1. Conners 60-1. Henley 65-1. Burns 80-1. 

Might add Straka, Fleetwood, English, Abergy, or Griffin to my card.

nah i like him. great year. mac is good too. could go either way. bhatia does well on hard courses.

wait, what if fleetwood actually wins this week?

and parlays with a european favorite?

$$$$

can't leave Rai off.... great long iron player at 50-1

and Henley! 50

Short card (if needed): best bets

Fleetwood 25

Conners 30

Lowry 35

Berger 35

Lowry 35-1 I forgot from my list.

I love my card. Has 13 names on it. I added Taylor even though he doesn't meet my criteria only based on superstition! So take that as you like. 

Morikawa 16

Fleetwood 25

Conners 30

Berger 35

Matsuyama 35

SW Kim 40

Henley 50

Rai 50

Bradley 50

Thompson 90

Glover 110

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Surprisingly, the best value on the card is Bradley at +50 as he is a good all around player, even though he is not my gut fit.

Fleetwood seems to be a great price at 25 as he is a great fit for the course. Probably needs to lead after day 1 to win so I will bet him r1 leader.

Morikawa and Lowry rate great, but Lowry better price. 

SW Kim looks good here and having a good season. 

Henley may be the best price and best player, with a win already this year.

Rai and Glover are good prices for their fits here. 

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Small field, good looking card

you know who could win this?

Thompson (+9000)

He is good around the green and hitting fairways.

Watch out.

curious to see if Matsuyama not hitting fairways will hold him back... or if he has a good week hitting fairways.

will see what happens day 1.