The Travelers

Russel Henley +3500

Collin Morikawa +1500

Viktor Hovland +3000

Sepp Straka +3000

Cameron Young +4000     Top 10 +475

Brian Harman +7000        Top 10 +525

I'd like for Morikawa to make a run up the board Saturday. With easier conditions expected this weekend, I think he has better than mid-tier change to gain a few shots on the leaders. Only 22 players have better scores, the leader 7 shots ahead, and half and all but 8 of those players are within 3 shots. 

I liked JT after round 1 (-3) and wanted to take him, but I didn't wake up earlier to make the bet.

I got Cantlay today who I also liked. Selfishly hope Cantlay beats out JT though JT is bred for this course. 

Both JT and Fleetwood were fairly priced after round 1 between 25 - 35 each. I didn't take Fleetwood either though.

Made a Henley bet as well, he is doing as expected and has a win already this year. 

Don't count out Glover he has course history and sits in T13. With several wins, one more good day and he is in contention. At 250-1 (or higher depending when you got him) he is good value.

Hall is a birdie machine in easy scoring conditions. Don' be surprised if he hangs around, despite his lack of T5s.

I've got Jaeger and Burns with long shot if either of them feels like posting a -9.  

On Saturday, Fleetwood beat JT by 6 strokes. On a single hole! On the 13th hole, JT scored a quadruple bogie 9. Fleetwood eagled for a 3. 

Talk about strokes gain/los heads up!

One thing that has my attention:

Scheffler double bogied two holes.

Thomas quadruple bogied a hole. 

This "Easy" course can chew players up on an easy day. Two players that are elite golfers, not to mention both well suited for this course, can struggle.

If the odds going in tomorrow are Fleetwood vs the rest, I might take a chance on a few longshots.

If Fleetwood gets chewed up, then a player 6, even perhaps 7, dare I say 8 shots are in contention.

If this happens, expect players in 2nd-4th to score -4. Maybe they even drag their feet at -3 (Another if, one could easily should another good round).

So that leaves the winning score at perhaps -18 or -19. I can see a player at -7 today shooting -8, -9 or -10 tomorrow. 

The truth is, the round 2 leaders struggled (except Fleetwood). This isn't a high scoring affair yet.

Who played well in this easy conditions? Look at players who had good days 1 and 3. Dock players who had a good round 2.

Dock Fleetwood, McCarthy, Harman, and Day. They like this course windy and difficult. 

Who had a good R1 and R3 (the good conditions?):

Fleetwood -4, -6

Henley -2, -9

Bradley -6, -6

Harman -4, -5

Clark -6, -4

Scheffler -8, +2

Eckroat -8, E

McIlroy -6, -2

J Day -4, -3

Fleetwood, Henley, and Bradley all look good, all playing good.

BUT Fleetwood and Bradley only at -13. Only one far ahead is Fleetwood 

So if they shoot -4s, and Fleetwood does something stupid, the question is how much Fleetwood beats -17 by. 

What are the odds a player shoots -8 or better? Well 3/8 players above have done it. I think odds are better than 100-1. 

I'll take a chance on Clark at 300-1, McIlroy 250-1, Harman 250 -1, Scheffler 80-1, J Day 16-1.

Parlay with Pacers covering (or even outright!) for some fun.

It's a great story line.

Remember the story line? 

Fleetwood doesn't finish.

Good for him if he does.

Great funny story if he doesn't it (if one can have perspective)

There are 12 players within 2 shots of each other (-6 to -8)

4 players are out ahead (-11 to -16)

What if we get a 1/100 chance tomorrow that one the pack finds a way ahead? 1/1000 chance we get a 59?

Let's take a small chance. Scheffler, JT, Hovland can do a miracle if Fleetwood stays at -16. 

Just for fun. $20 on each of them.