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63-69 overall

Current bankroll $7,339 We also have a pending bet on the Yankees to win the series. $203. The series are tied 1-1

This is a bankroll after doubling $5K into $10,391 and withdrawing $2,500.

2-1  +$924

On one hand I'm frustrated from the Phillies playing against their fans. On the other hand thou - I know they will pay us back . They already did once. 

Simulation Engine Blueprint: Martingale Strategy Analysis

?? 1. Simulation Loop (10,000 runs)

Each run simulates the entire strategy from April 28 to January 1, 2026.

?? 2. Strategy Inputs (from Master Data Sheet)

From MLBMLATSmart sheet:

• Source D = System (e.g., "Game Totals", "Series ML", etc.)
• Source U = Win/Loss ("W" or "L")
• Bets are triggered by previous result and strategy conditions
• Teams tracked: dynamically determined each day

?? 3. Bankroll Logic

• Starting Bankroll: 55 mBTC, increase with doubling cycle and withdraw half the profits
• Current Bankroll: 70.5 mBTC
• Withdrawn: 27.5 mBTC
• Unit Size: 2 % of bankroll at start of each sequence (adjusted dynamically for HighBankroll sheet)
• Stake Multiplier: MartingaleX3 (i.e., stake ×3 after each loss, reset to 1 unit after a win)
• Cap versions: Stop increasing after Martingale stage 3/9/27/81 depending on the sheet
• Outcome-based Betting:
• Win: bankroll += win amount
• Loss: bankroll -= bet amount

?? 4. Metrics to Track per Run

• Final bankroll
• Total profit
• Total number of bets placed
• Max Martingale stage reached
• Longest losing streak
• Number of busts (bankroll = 0)
• ROI
• Average bet size
• System success (per category: Totals, Run Line, Series ML, etc.)

?? 5. Output: System Performance Comparison

We’ll generate:

• Table ranking all systems (by avg. ROI, risk, bust %)
• Graphs: bankroll progression, bet volume, risk curves
• Best performers by risk-adjusted return

?? Optional Add-ons:

• Filter by team (simulate just Mets or Dodgers, etc.)
• Add stop-loss rule (quit system if bankroll drops 50%)
• Add streak protections (don’t bet if 2+ in a row losses)
• Run with/without flat odds vs decimal odds
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https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/linemovement/nyy-at-bal/341690

That's the whole line and odds history book by a book. While I am not going to promote any book here - you can find an answer to your question right here on Covers. And those odds were not the best I could get cause at some point they even became +111

Oh. Now I see what you mean. Yeah. +105. Happened before too that I posted wrong odds on the pick but when summing up a day the mistake was always corrected. Sorry for my typo. Part of the system testing is determining which way is more profitable? Betting flat with Decimal odds or betting using American odds where you either bet minus whatever to win the whole unit or bet the whole unit to win by plus money odds.

Sorry for a confusion thou. You were absolutely right to call me out on that (now I sound like my machine :)

Tuesday

NY Yankees ML  -135  $608

NY Yankees -1.5 +205 $450

PHI Phillies -1.5  -116  $134

A side note: I appreciate each and every person going out of his or her way and not only reading our posts - but also actively participating if it is by commenting or by engaging in a constructive discussion. However - please note that I am running this system regardless... I know for a fact that sports betting markets are not absolutely efficient and can be exploited with financial success. Time is on our side as technological advances allow us quick access to public domains storing data that with modern technological tools can be crunched with efficiency. Only thing that can stand in our way is our own nature and lack of discipline.

Thank you for your thorough comment. While I'm not sure if your suggestion -as you mentioned -  was embedded in a constructive criticism in a form of advice - or [quote] a suggestion how to organize my/our idea and package it  the way it will work[end quote] requires me to agree to receive it - here you go - please, write it right here in detail and I promise I will examine it.  I am open to any suggestions and opinions that will improve our system. 

2-3  +$80

61-68 overall

Current bankroll $6,538 - $+$80 - $203 (pending pick on series between the Yankees and the Orioles. Orioles are leading 1-0))  = $6,415

This is a bankroll after doubling $5K into $10,391 and withdrawing $2,500.

Monday

NY Mets ML  -167  $752  +$450

NY Mets -1.5  -115  $173   +$150

Under 9.5  -111  $167  -$167

NY Yankees ML  -135  $203  -$203

NY Yankees -1.5  +120  $150  -$150

NY Yankees to win the Series -135  $203   Pending. The Orioles are leading 1-0 in a 3 game series

As I already mentioned - that was my bad. I confused the machine by feeding NY Yankees vs BAL Orioles which in machine understanding means that Yankees are a home team. My feed overrides data entered previously by me and gathered by a machine, cause the last entry overrides previous ones if they contradict. Now, I had a feature that allowed machine argumentation, but that was interfering with the productivity as the machine was simply stopping confused in a maze of IFs and the latency was occurring. So, let me tell you that the latency is the biggest enemy in decision making when it comes to trading and betting as the linear progression puts you in the end of the que. Su, we decided to deactivate it till we would develop fully generative machine - machine that initiates

Tonight game 1: 

NY Yankees ML  -135  $203

NY Yankees -1.5  +120  $150

NY Yankees to win the Series (in some books it is called Mini Series) -135  $203

Yes, sometimes I am confused. And the machine puts me in the place. It is not yet generative AI, nor the quantum computing self thinking model. It is based on Large Language Model and my input - as of my colleagues' and grad students - is a mathematical one. 
Therefore it is analysing based on what it is fed

ME:So, you are not only predicting a Yankees win - you predict a sweep?

MACHINE:

Based on the data you provided and the pitching matchups we've analyzed, the Yankees' dominance in both offense and pitching does suggest they are likely to win the series. However, while they seem heavily favored, a sweep isn't a guarantee.

The Orioles have Tomoyuki Sugano in Game 1, whose consistency might keep the game close, and Cedric Mullins is capable of delivering a breakout performance at the plate. A victory in Game 1 or Game 3 (if Baltimore leverages its strengths strategically) could prevent a Yankees sweep.

That said, the simulation predicts the Yankees winning the first two games with their superior roster. If Game 3 tilts in their favor, it would result in a sweep, but the Orioles have enough talent to make it competitive. It's not set in stone—baseball always has room for surprises!

Game 3 based on the matchup between Carlos Carrasco and Cade Povich:

Pitching Matchup:

Analysis:

• Carrasco (Yankees): While his 5.26 ERA highlights vulnerabilities, Carrasco's ability to induce key outs in pressured scenarios will be critical. Backed by the Yankees' offensive powerhouse, he might mitigate his occasional struggles.

• Povich (Orioles): A left-hander with promising strikeout numbers (23 K in 25 IP), Povich has a chance to challenge the Yankees lineup. However, his high WHIP (1.72) and tendency to give up hits could spell trouble against a formidable Yankees offense.

Impact on the Game:

1. Yankees Offense vs. Povich: Players like Aaron Judge and Ben Rice thrive against left-handed pitching, which could make Povich's task particularly difficult.

2. Orioles Offense vs. Carrasco: Cedric Mullins and Ryan O'Hearn offer potential to exploit Carrasco's vulnerabilities, especially with runners on base.

Simulated Outcome for Game 3:

The Yankees' offensive depth gives them an advantage, even with Carrasco on the mound. Predicted outcome: Yankees win 7-4, with Judge and Volpe leading the charge against Povich. The Orioles might still show signs of fight, leveraging Mullins’ contributions.