Charon84

@SPark1

 I'm betting Raiders +3.5 @-114. Dont be surprised if Raiders win straight up.

1-0 (+0.82 units)

Week 2:

Chargers @ Raiders: Raiders +3.5 @-114

Come on! My only bet this week. At least closing line value...-2.5 @-188

-7.0...you lost! ;)

Vera-Tucker injury is big blow for Jets. Timpmann from center to RG, Meyers new center...Steelers D-Line will create havoc

Is there any news on Panthers @ Jaguars I missed out? Line -2,5 changed to -153. Or just big money coming in?

0-0 (+0.00 units)

Week 1:

Panthers @ Jaguars: Jaguars -2,5 (-123)

Are Massey-Peabody ratings for free? I've found on the internet it isn't, but there is a website that publishes Massey-Peabody ratings but they are not up-to-date (from January 29th, 2025).

Does anyone know a good rating model that uses objective stats like rushing/passing yards?

And I don't mean how exactly, but which type of data is used.

@sundance

 Is there an explanation how SM-ratings are compiled?

@sundance

 Thanks!

EDIT: that said, it appears that Inpredictable, instead of Massey, inflates the larger spreads (top 3 and bottom 3) into even larger spreads than the market had.

EDIT 2: does Inpredictable update ratings fast enough? Last one is from december 2024.

@Sidehatch didn't know Inpredictable ratings, but they look good! Thanks.

EDIT: that said, it appears Inpredictable is 

I didn't expect the Over 9.5 for Rams. I think it's too low given the opponents and improvements.

Does anyone know where I can easily look up the average margin of victory for home and away matches in regular season NFL for last 10 years? Team Rankings does come close, but the data includes playoffs.

@vanzack

 Fair point :)

@vanzack

 I love your picks any day. But I can't understand why you keep defending yourself. It's just making me doubting. Shake off the haters, don't give them any attention...

Just messing around with some linear regression but I'm no data scientist and can't figure it all out with Google. My questions:

1. Do you always check box 'Constant is zero'? Viewing video's I think the answer is "yes" but when I do check the R-squared is 0.042 and when I don't it's 0.721.

2. If I add a second stat the R-squared rises to 0.735 but the P-value from the first stat also goes from 8.33E-06 to 0.090? What does that tell me?

(@mods: If this is the wrong subforum please adjust)

I don't know the rule book in all detail but why didn't officials throw a flag on last punt chargers? Punt reciever waives for a fair catch and Chargers player pushes Broncos player into the punt reciever resulting in a muffed punt. Is it just allowed because the player-touch was made by a own player?

I can tell you one thing...count out the Netherlands for WC winners. A lot of first string players don't play a lot or play horrible at this moment...can't see Van Gaal turning this around.