C8675309

The top 5 picks in Circa millions all lost.

I had a horrible opening week, 10 bets, currently 2-6 ATS. I’ve been doing this a long time, sometimes the bounces just don’t go your way. It’s a long season! Good luck to everyone 

@sudshead

 Not sure exactly what you are saying, but the contest works like this...

1) You must submit 5 picks weekly vs the contest lines

2) lines for the week are released Thursday morning and remain static

3) picks must be submitted by cutoff time Saturday and cannot be changed once entered ( or earlier if choosing Thurs game etc.)

4) Sunday morning around 0400 all contest selections are available to view,

most people use the same 'handle' every year, for example Dana White is 'UFC Guy' so you can view anyone's submissions approx. 6 hours before kickoff

Anyone here playing this year? I live in Las Vegas so it's a lot easier not having to go the proxy route.

I really enjoy doing my own handicapping and making my contest picks, but i concede that there are some people/groups just a hell of a lot better than me, so while it would be a stretch to call it a system, I've at worst made back my entry money the last few years by following a few professional bettors or whoever is really hot in the contest, I go to the Circa site on Sunday morning around 0400 to see what their contest picks are and then assuming the line hasn't moved on/off a key #, I bet the same with my phone account and then back to bed. Work smarter not harder.

I wouldn't put much stock in splits until next Thurs or Fri, but I just checked this morning and Draft Kings is:

KC  56% bets,  53% handle

LAC 44% bets, 47% handle

WAS 58% bets, 35% handle

NYG 42% bets, 65% handle

CIRCA is:

KC 38% bets, 50% handle

LAC 63% bets, 50% handle

WAS 38% bets, 94% handle

NYG 62% bets, 6% handle

Broncos 

@Indigo999

 I’m new here, when you say 1.5 units does that mean 1.5% of your bankroll?

@Indigo999

 While I don’t blindly bet, I too am a contrarian bettor, splits are quite useful and recency bias is a real thing.When you walk into a sports bar I’m the quiet guy in the corner almost always rooting against the house. 

@Indigo999

 Where did you hear that 4% of bettors win?

I personally don’t put much stock in trends, but good luck to you.

My first bet on the NFL, I lost my milk money in the third grade ( 1971) I can still remember that dry peanut butter sandwich. I’m a little sharper now and have learned to bet numbers and not teams. The last few years have been pretty good for me so I’m going to give the Circa Millions a shot this year. I look forward to meeting you all as the season goes on.