Biscuit

@mjm1012  

@Biscuiteater1  

@D-Town  

In the series total rebounds for both teams is about even.     OKC got out-boarded by 5 in each of the last 2 games.     I think OKC will win the battle of the boards in game 7, and has a good chance to win the game by DD

OKC -9’ +123  (DK)

GLTA

I have alt line for tonight

NYK -9’ +196

I see Indy winning in 6 tho

BOL RR 

Luka should have a better game tonight after scoring just 14 pts in his debut with the Lakers

25+ pts -105

30+ pts +225

1 unit each

GLTA

I like it 

GL

Let’s get it 

GL Fuse 

In 2024 Hurts ranked #3 vs man coverage but only #22 vs zone.   When opponents blitz, Hurts is sacked 13% of the time, highest rate in the league.

on the other side……the Eagles defense ranks 12th on pass plays on 3rd and 4th downs.     On 3rd and 4th down with 6+ yards to go, Mahomes converts 51% of the time.    No other QB in the last 5 years is over 50% in that category.

bottom line, Hurts has done an excellent job of improving his game over the years, but Mahomes has more experience and processes info a little faster, and I think that’ll be the difference in the game

GL with your plays

I’m on it!  

BOL 

I like it

Last SB I cashed a ticket for Mecole Hardman anytime TD for +1600 I think it was.    It was just a hunch.   He had been with the team for a few years, then signed with the Jets who released him, and the Chiefs picked him up mid season because they liked and trusted him to make plays in certain situations.  And he did, at the very end of the game.  

Schuster has a similar story, the Chiefs re-acquired him this season because they like him to make a play or two in certain spots.    Mahomes isn’t afraid to target a variety of receivers, and I can see Schuster getting 2 or 3 chances, at least.

I have 2 small plays at DK for

Over 15’ yds -135

also a parlay +173

Over 16’ yds

GSW ML @ Bulls

as Jimmy Butler returns to Chicago in his 1st game as a Warrior 

BOL

@DogbiteWilliams 

@Cooler999 

@Buffalobob89074 

@undermysac 

@FredLeonard 

@begginerboy 

thanks guys

BOL

The Eagles are a model for how to build an excellent team.    A good QB and defense, but most important, a great offensive line.    I believe the Eagles were gonna be in the SB even if they had to beat the Lions to get there.   Goff is very accurate, but doesn’t move well, and vulnerable to the pressure that Philly can bring.

While Goff is kind of a statue, and Hurts led NFL QBs in rush attempts, Mahomes is somewhere in the middle.    He can run when need be, but what sets him apart from others is his superior ability to read defenses and react to situations as they are unfolding.    Fangio is a master of disguising his defenses, but Mahomes has a fast processor, the ability to quickly understand what the opponent is doing, and make the correct throw.    Or run, if that’s the best option.   His career averages are 20 yds on 3.9 rush attempts in the regular season, but that jumps up to 29.1 yds on 5.4 attempts in the postseason.

Philly often employs 2 high safeties to limit explosive plays, and force the opponent to sustain long drives for scoring opportunities.    Chiefs are OK with that.    They led the league in offensive time per possession, happy to gain 4 or 5 or 6 yards per play while grinding out long scoring drives.    The Eagles 2 high shells allow for a variety of coverages from the same pre snap look, effectively forcing the QB to make post snap reads, and process info quickly.     Mahomes is pretty good at doing that.   Chiefs should have some success with their short and intermediate passing game, which means that Kelce will probably get his share of yards.

Including postseason games the Chiefs are 49-11 in the last 3 seasons.    They were down 7+ pts in 17 of those 49 wins.    That, plus the fact that they’ve won the last 2 SB, means they probably won’t be hurting for confidence, even if they get behind in this next game.     

Another interesting stat is their cumulative turnover differential for the past 3 seasons is -3.     Which means they can “lose the turnover battle” and still have a decent chance to win the game.

Not counting the last Broncos game, the Chiefs incredibly went 15-1 this season, and secured the #1 seed.    An argument could be made that they did this, even though they played the toughest schedule in the league, since each of their opponents were highly motivated to knock off the 2x defending champs.

IMO the Chiefs have had great success in the last 3 seasons because they are a little smarter than their opponents, from coaching staff to QB and the rest of the players.   I think the same is true for this next game, and the reason why I favor them to beat the Eagles in a close game.

GLTA 

I just read that Troy Aikman predicts a defensive battle so he’s probably on your side

BOL 

yeah they said that everyone would be flying around with jetpacks in the future.    What happened with that? 

having an edge in turnover differential isn’t necessarily predictive of a SB win.    Below are the last 13 SB matchups showing regular season turnover differential + team + final score.   I don’t have teams stats from playoff games, though.

2024

+11 PHI

+6 KCC

2023

+10 SFO 22

-11 KCC 25

2022

+8 PHI 35

-3 KCC 38

2021

+2 CIN 20

0  LAR 23

2020

+6 KCC.   9

+8 TBY.   31

2019

+4 SFO.   20

+8 KCC.   31

2018

+11 LAR.    3

+10 NEP.   13

2017

+6 NEP.   33

+11 PHI.    41

2016

+11 ATL.   28

+12 NEP.   34

2015

+20 CAR.   10

-4 DEN.   24

2014

+9 SEA.   24

+12 NEP.   28

2013

0.  DEN.      8

+20 SEA.   43

2012

+9 SFO.   31

+9 BAL.   34

2011

+17 NEP.    17

+7. NYG.   21

chiefs now have the knowledge and experience that comes with winning the last two SB.    That has some value.

@Fuse 

 
eagles 

but now Barkley needs to rush for 170 in the SB  

go Chiefs 

Commandos are discombobulated 

too many away games?

pizza bets, just for grins

Eagles -9’ +143 

Barkley total 611+ rush yds in the postseason (to set a new record) +500

he currently has 324 yds

T Kelce to score 2 TDs in the SB +2000

GLTA today 

maybe Josh Allen could have neutralized the Swift effect by dating Britney Spears