jowchoo

(3-1) for the last 15 years.....USELESS

Sorry for posting a thankyou for your query.To berate me for that is beyond explanation.Some sort of complex I guess. Good Luck going forward, I hope this communication has not caused you stress and I will continue to pad my record and my ROI with teasers.....lol

You really are a strange one.................................gl

I added n:D to this query and the result was (0-11) ATS with -9.6 pts along with -9.5<line<-4

thanks spottie, looks to be golden.

1. AFC SOUTH winner....HOUSTON +110 (2%)

2. HOUSTON over 9.5 wins +105 (1.5%)

3. AFC  winner HOUSTON +1500 (.5%)

4. NFC SOUTH winner ATLANTA +240 (1.5%)

5. ATLANTA over 7.5 wins -120 (2%)

6. DENVER over 9.5 wins +110 (1.5%)

7. DIV winner DENVER +400 (1%)

Not a fan of tying up 8% of bankroll on futures but I see VALUE!...................................gl

Hmmmm.

from 2018 till last year is a 7 year trend and the trend is +17.1% which mirrors my 3 year sample.

At what point does a  capper concede that the game has changed thru rules, systems, analytics and the

lines have not kept pace? My 4 week  TEASER regression model has some insurance built in and the juice has

still not caught up....;-)

A lot of talk by seasoned veterans here that last year was clearly an outlier vis a vis ATS outcomes.

I had a sensational year and wanted to look closer at the numbers to protect against a regression if that

might be incoming.So, like everything, in our world, and as Dylan sang "times they are a'changing". Look at gold as an example of

what I am thinking, up 50% quickly after years of sideways action.

Anyways, I have used SDQL protocols in GimmeTheDog's data base and posted in the quiver thread many exciting results for 2024.

Well, I decided to go back to 2022 in order to have a three year sample size and eliminate or confirm whether 2024 was an outlier year.

Many will say that is NOT nearly far enough back to matter, i disagree. My review mirror had been 5 years in the past and now is 3 years.

So, this 3 year window, for me confirms that 2024 was just a continuation of a recent trend. The trend is your friend, until it bumps it's head up against

recency bias and over adjustments line wise. For example, FAVORITES are up 16.5 %, OVERs up 17.1% since 2022.

Subsets:

AWAY FAVORITES:  up 21.2 % and OVER up 37.5%,   DIV. AWAY  FAVORITES:  up 12% and OVER up 48% ;-)

ARTIFICIAL SURFACE AWAY FAV:  up 29% and OVER up 50% ,  GRASS HOME FAV up 11% and OVER 22.7%

AWAY FAVORITES :  with line <-2.5  up 25% and OVER up 30.6%.

Also HOME DOGS with lines greater than 3 and less than 7 (3

have gone down 34.1% ATS wise and OVER has gone up 27.9%

These are all in trend, not outliers for last year!!!!

season>=2023 and p:line<-7 and F and op:AL and line>-11.5.....(14-3) ATS by 7.3 pts

season>=2023 and p:FL and p:line<-7 and F and on:F........(8-0) ATS by 11.1 pts

This is a nice query.

season>=2023 and p:margin>14 and op:margin<0 and F and n:D and on:D and week>5.....(5-0) ATS     (5-0) OU

season=2024 and op:L and AD and n:F and week<16 and line>2.5 and total>41.........(8-1)  OU  12.5 pts

season=2024 and op:L and AD and n:F and week<16 and line>2.5.....(10-2) ATS   8.7 pts

season=2024 and op:rushes<16 and p:L and total>37.5 and week<16...(9-2) ATS

season=2024 and op:rushes<16 and p:L and total>40....(11-2) OU

season=2024 and op:RFD<5 and total<44.5 and op:U and p:O and week<18....(16-1)OU   9.9 pts

Top totals query !!!

season=2024 and PRSW=6 and week>5 and p:L.....(3-17) ATS

season=2024 and op:RY>80 and op:W and p:L and n:D and D and on:D and week>2 and total<46.5....(1-13) ATS ..

.....season>=2024 and tA(3DP)-oA(3DP)>15 and H and week<16....(2-12) ATS  and (3-11)

.....season>=2024 and 3DP-o:3DP>15 and H and week>2 and -13.5<line<2.5 and total<51.5.....(38-10) ATS ...8.7 pts