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Not streaks, NET imbalances.If a team has gone net 4 to the over,then tease the total over and play UNDER. Teasers will still be available at the old prices but line shopping and multiple outs will be necessary.I still believe current iterations of NFL rules and philosophies necessarily change significant historical successes and maybe the post 2018 sample size becomes more relevent.I will also suffer if this year in the NFL even remotely follows last year. |
Indigo999 | 36 |
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In the last 4 years: Each year there are 32 team ats records for sides and totals. Over these 4 years that equates to 128. When a team runs in the same direction (ov ov ov ov) or ( W W W W ), a few things happen. Vegas adjusts their numbers creating value against the recency bias auto bettors and contrarian punters surface as bottom feeders. They hold their noses and go the other "side or total" Well, when totals got an imbalance of 4 to the over then ONLY 12 times did it NOT regress (12/128 ..93%) and this is without points from teaser. Teams running a winning imbalance were (23/128..82%) regression. This sharply rises when coupled with insurance teaser points. Suppose team A has a +4 winning ats record at some point in the season and is now a pick on the road with the total at 37.5. This situation is GOLD as the points are at a premium on game where teams are projected to score low and Vegas has tried to stop the bleeding of free money for the auto bettors.
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Indigo999 | 36 |
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Putting some final touches on my thoughts as to why I believe regression handicapping is a must tool in long term nfl success, especially when combined with the insurance of extra points offered with teasers. The value of these points drastically increases when the total in a potential game wager is LOW! Some books have sussed this out and have increased the vig ;-( As the modern game evolves some historical successes go away and some new ones emerge. The large sample sizes previously coveted can be replaced imo by smaller new modern trends sample sizes. Vegas has and will always misplace some values on certain conditions , this can be gleaned with SDQL historical analysis and when they are discovered it is glorious. Back later with more specific data.
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Indigo999 | 36 |
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@Indigo999 Thank you for these. Care to share your querry text? I understand if the answer is no! |
Indigo999 | 36 |
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@Indigo999 Yup. I thought Dobbs flashed enough last year to be given some consideration. Too bad for Jefferson who is arguably the most TALENTED wideout in the game |
Indigo999 | 36 |
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Got a feeling this thread will become very popular by season's opening. Some things that cross my mind at this time are: 1. That the prop market will become drastically more relevant as VALUE can be identified easier. A potential problem could be wager limits being small. 2. With 2 team teasers being exposed as a player friendly wager (ROI wise) ,the books making these more expensive. I guess Wong was right. I have been optimistic with heading down that road and aggressively deploying capital with (regressive anchor 2 team teasers) 3. I am stubbornly sticking to developing a metric for (LOS) line of scrimmage as a tool to use in historical technical analysis. 4. Hoping to isolate some gold from SDQL querries and paying attention to geopolitical chaos and it's effect on players' performances, I believe outstanding season long sustained form will be adversely affected. |
Indigo999 | 36 |
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indigo: If you were going to build a LOS (line of scrimmage) team ranking, what weighted stats would you employ? While I totally agree like you that qb/coach aspect is numero uno for consideration, I also think there is room for value in identifying a historical LOS ranking. You previously showed some interest in this idea. Winning surely is connected to the power in the trenches, but this has basically gone untested. THOUGHTS? |
Indigo999 | 189 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: Indigo999 said: Thanks for the nice words.....I'm thankful I had a good playoffs...the regular season was abysmal for me as non-divisional away Sunday dogs from week 2 to week 17 had 15 out of 16 non-winning weeks (week 11 they went 3-0-1 ATS) if you can imagine that, going 30-45 ATS in its entirety. They should be back to their usual lucrative selves next season. AD and not DIV and season=2023 and 18>week>1 and day=Sunday and week The AFC West and NFC Central should be the two best divisions in football next season....I may look to take those teams in out-of-division games. Chiefs, as mentioned I'll look to fade as they've been poor against the spread when defending a title, and should be doubly difficult for them defending two consecutive championships.....they will be favored in 90% of their games. Mahomes, I'll predict it here may have serious injury problems for the first time in his career.....he turns 29 years old in September which for that year can be a difficult time in one's life. ******* I checked AD and season: 48.5% this season and 12 of the last 15 were higher than that. Chalkbites had an unusually good season. I don't bet many futures, but I did have this reaction to your thoughts on upcoming strength in the AFC West and NFC Central: If overall improvement in those divisions is priced into higher futures lines would there be potential value in the Unders because they have to play each other twice? Take a look at a team's ov/unders on "Division Wins",... not a very popular bet, but William Hill offers it. Should be available later in the year closer to pre-season.
Great heads up....THANKS |
Indigo999 | 189 |
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Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
I9, I enjoyed the observations and research in Comments #166 and #167, but for some reason my upvotes did not register. This comment expresses my appreciation.
Ditto professor,always processing is a wonderful thing...THX |
Indigo999 | 189 |
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replied to
Presidential Greatness Project Expert Survey ranks Biden #14!! ...Obama #7 ...GWBush #32 ...Trump ranks DEAD LAST!
in Politics Quote Originally Posted by thirdperson:
No surprise several polls of presidential experts rank Biden above average and Trump among the worst presidents. Biden has been a great president despite pandemic and mess inherited from Trump. His presidency has been productive, stable and scandal free. He is a decent hard-working guy who wants to serve his country. An dedicated administrator who is effective in governing. Working intelligently to solve problems with compromise and compassion. He cares about justice, people and democracy. In contrast, Trump doesn't care about about those things. He seeks presidency to enrich himself, avoid accountability and pursue revenge. He is a pathological liar, career criminal, insurrectionist and traitor who sides with US enemies. He wants to be a dictator and destroy democracy. His presidency has been dysfunctional, chaotic and full of scandals. Novemberl election is a choice between good and evil.
What a LOAD of shit!!!Look in the mirror you imbecile. |
fubah2 | 323 |
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replied to
Presidential Greatness Project Expert Survey ranks Biden #14!! ...Obama #7 ...GWBush #32 ...Trump ranks DEAD LAST!
in Politics Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove:
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par: I think most of us already knew Trump is ranked last and most likely will keep that title for several decades That's still too high!
Make sure to get a clown's big red nose to wear before you get your new plandemic clotshot. This new IQ test is just too difficult....haha |
fubah2 | 323 |
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replied to
Presidential Greatness Project Expert Survey ranks Biden #14!! ...Obama #7 ...GWBush #32 ...Trump ranks DEAD LAST!
in Politics Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
(*Mondo thanks to our forum fact checker, Thirdperson, for uncovering this new research) BREAKING NEWS ... In recognition of Presidents Day, 2024, New Expert Poll Ranks Biden as 14th-Best; ...With Trump polling WORST President! NY TIMES - A new poll of historians & scholars coming out on Presidents’ Day weekend ranks Joe Biden as the 14th-best president in American history, just ahead of Woodrow Wilson, Ronald Reagan and Ulysses S. Grant. The newest survey puts Biden well ahead of Trump, who places dead last as the worst president ever!
Like Hiliary's 98% chance to win in 2016 your bullshit fake polls fool NOONE!!! |
fubah2 | 323 |
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
“However if this same game were to be played 10 times SF would win 9 and by DD pts 5 times. VERY very much an outlier.” This is absurd. I think with the FanDuel legal era of bettors flooding the market…..this is the new norm. Watching the same game I watched and it’s either always rigged or “their” team should have won by double digits. This was a great game between imo the two best teams in each conference. And they went and duked it out into almost a second OT. KC had like 12 total yards in the first Q and they still piled up almost 500 total yards on that defense. More first down, more rushing, more passing yards. Better efficiency 3rd and 4th down. Where is this SF blowout?? Yes they muffed a punt. But Pacheco also fumbled inside the 5. I keep hearing it was rigged. Or why didn’t SF run the ball?? MCCAFF HAD 31 TOUCHES!!!!! This was one good football game. Andy Reid made 1-2 more adjustments than the opposing coach who actually admitted he didn’t know the f’n OT rules. And 3 time SB mvp Mahomes. Made ONE more play than a 2nd year kid who was drafted 282nd. If they play 10x it probably is 5-5. Maybe 6-4 KC. (Or even 7-3 with some of those injuries piling up). 9-1 SF. smh
Did you even see the 1st quarter. The line of scrimmage was owned by 9ers, it was not even close. If that replicates in 10 games the game script is 180 degrees from what eventually happened. If the PAT is not blocked , the outcome WOULD have different, but you forgot about that 1 point play. I hae watched every single SB and that my friend was an outlier result by a magnitde. It is a travesty that CMC did not win MVP and I blame Shannihan for the loss. |
DogbiteWilliams | 29 |
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DBW: I watched very closely, and the effort to recover the fumbles seemed normal. However if this same game were to be played 10 times SF would win 9 and by DD pts 5 times. VERY very much an outlier. |
DogbiteWilliams | 29 |
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Quote Originally Posted by fade_the_mush:
You don't want to take the red pill. Take the blue pill and go back to sleep.
Careful!!! numbnuts NR114 will chime in with his disapproval and some inane comment! |
calicappin | 8 |
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replied to
May we all take a silent moment tonight to pray for the safety of all innocent people attending and working at Superbowl 58 tomorrow
in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by NR114:
And Covers Moderater ban me please. Because this forum is fucking useless at this point
I'll second this motion....Later tough guy!! |
packersbackers | 35 |
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replied to
May we all take a silent moment tonight to pray for the safety of all innocent people attending and working at Superbowl 58 tomorrow
in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by NR114:
@jowchoo Jow seriously? You want to promote religion, your political beliefs or conspiracy theory’s.. join Facebook. suck a big. Dc. K
OK tough guy who lives in LV. A guy who says covers has been shit for the last 10 years and then JOINS. Who joins a place that they think is shite I will tell you, a LOSER, a hypocrite, go sign up for another fresh BOOSTER......lol |
packersbackers | 35 |
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replied to
May we all take a silent moment tonight to pray for the safety of all innocent people attending and working at Superbowl 58 tomorrow
in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by NR114:
Put this is the General Discussion Posts like this is why Covers has gone so bad over the last 10 years. Are you serious with this?
you waited 10 yeas to join? Maybe your opinion is useless? |
packersbackers | 35 |
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replied to
May we all take a silent moment tonight to pray for the safety of all innocent people attending and working at Superbowl 58 tomorrow
in Penalty Box Something very bad is going to happen, and I only pray for the sake of tens of thousands of innocent people that it doesn't happen tomorrow.
Absolutely!! There WILL BE false flags this summer,that is a certainty The present administration and the odious stooge so called in charge WANT a civil war and a nation wide lock down. They will spare NOTHING to achieve this!! I will pray it is not during this SB!! |
packersbackers | 35 |
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Good Luck sir your insights and mastery of SDQL is awesome. Although I am on the 9ers ( I think the universe will reward CMC with a historic game as I believe he has been a truly great unrewarded RB thusfar in his career) |
Indigo999 | 189 |
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