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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
I got this online ....... Dogs +6 or larger hit 60% ATS past 20 years. Saw this last year, not sure how those dogs did last year. The sweet spot seems to be +8 to +10..... That was over 70% I think 77% but I don't think it was past 20 years more like 10 to 15 years. I wrote that down but can't find it. This one I got this season. Teams that win by 17 pts or more you fade, teams that lose by 17 pts or more you back. That I got last year has a nice winning ATS record like 60 to 65 %. Personally I don't like fading teams off big wins or losses of only 1 game. But I am aware of this trend. That is bullshxt, and it is not even close. D and line > 5.7 and season > 2005 ATS: 1026-993-45 (-0.7,50.8%) That is slightly positive, but it would NOT cover the vigorish. |
theclaw | 20 |
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Good luck. |
theclaw | 20 |
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TC, will you start a thread for Week 2? The clock is ticking. |
theclaw | 175 |
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
1-0 ATS, won 1 unit Season--- 3-5, lost 2.6 units Packers laid a beatdown on Wash. But Wash did hang in and almost came back to get the cover. 404 yards to 250. 8.4 ave per pass to 3.9 , are u serious 3.9 per pass ? Packers won Passer Rating by 28 pts. PR II had Packers should of won by 17.4 pts. About the same for PR I. The 27-10 score before Wash made their final score was closer to the actual way the game was played. Keep riding this Packers team. NFL.com has Daniels stats vs GB as 200 PY/42 ATT = 4.76 YPPA. |
theclaw | 175 |
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: CLV outgained CIN 327-141 and covered the spread but still lost. I don't think that would be strong enough to qualify as a Top Three Surprise. Scoring only 16 points at home against a weak DEF is not that encouraging. PR II had Browns should of won by 1.38 pts. In other words a very close game .......... |
theclaw | 175 |
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Good stuff. Good luck. |
hoody | 27 |
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@spottie2935 You are certainly a better and more thorough handicapper than I am.
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spottie2935 | 28 |
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Nice hit. |
EastsideBangers | 27 |
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Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
Last week I took advantage of the non Sunday games and a few Sunday Unders. Lucky to make a small profit as Sunday was a dog killa. week2 and I have done more research but I just want to get a thread started tpS(W)<8 and p:DL and HD and p:ats margin<5 and p:points<20 and op:ats margin>0 and opS(W)>4 and n:line<=9 and on:line>-8 and total<47 and week<12 That query is pretty amazing to me. When I have a query with THAT many parameters, it's usually worthless because the sample size is so insignificant. Good luck with NO and TEN (I feel TEN owes me after Week 1). |
spottie2935 | 28 |
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BUF-NYG Over 39.5 and Under 53; it is certainly possible to split THAT middle. Good luck. |
jowchoo | 24 |
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Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win:
@DogbiteWilliams @jowchoo What do you guys do when you have two conflicting queries? Skip the bet? I always skip it if it's just those 2 queries. However, many games have lopsided splits. For example, there might be 15 queries on a game with an 11-4 split. In a case like that I won't let the 4 queries keep me off the other side. |
jowchoo | 24 |
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This query likes BUF-NYJ Over: p:RY > 164 and p:LH and (p:points > 28.5 or po:points > 28.5) and HD OU: 13-3-0 (8.9,81.2%) You might as well stick with BUF-NYJ Over 39.5 Good luck. |
jowchoo | 24 |
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Good luck this week with your high volume of plays. This query likes BUF-NYJ Under: HD and 3.2 < line < 12.2 and p:L and op:W and DIV and (tpS(W) < 6.5 or opS(W) > 12.5) and total > 43.2 and op:P4 > 13.5 OU: 1-10-0 (-7.6,9.1%) I have not bet it; I might wait for a confirming query with a larger sample size or maybe the total will reach the key number of 47 (it's currently 46.5 at Scores and Odds). |
jowchoo | 24 |
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@jowchoo |
DegenVegasLocal | 11 |
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@ROCKON |
DogbiteWilliams | 91 |
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Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:
DBW: I bet you never thought this original post would produce 90 replies.....;-) Absolutely correct. |
DogbiteWilliams | 91 |
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Perhaps you should review the weekly results of your system plays. I think dogs tend to do better in the first 9-10 weeks of the season. |
DegenVegasLocal | 11 |
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@undermysac |
DogbiteWilliams | 91 |
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Congratulations. |
LB_Dirtbags | 66 |
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Fade TB/Take ATL +2 L -1.08 U Fade DET/Take GB -2 W +1 U Fade MIN/Take CHI +1.5 L -1.08 U 1-2 Total loss = 1.16 U I did much better on my unposted plays than my personal thread picks. It's as if Lady Luck is telling me to STFU and stop taking people down with me. |
DogbiteWilliams | 11 |
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