DogbiteWilliams

What a fantastic line!  It's currently OKC -6.5 at Heritage.

Good luck.  Go OKC!

These are all incredible because they are so extreme.

TY is rated #1 in the entire NBA in the Assist % (This is an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while they were on the floor.)

TY is rated #179 (Dead Last!) at -2.7 in the Defensive Box Plus/Minus.

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JA is rated #1 in True Shooting Percentage (This is interested and depressing because there is much more chatter about Donovan Mitchell.  Leading scorers get too much credit).

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Check out the NBA Advanced Stats at Basketball Reference:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2025_advanced.html

Have fun.

Congratulations - two wins!

At least I am one game closer to OKC in 6 games.

I should have stressed that only occurred 5 times out of 250 games.

The other five teams must have done something(s) to overcome such poor 3PT %, but some things that only happen 2% of the time are not predictive; they just provide an explanation for this outlier.

I do expect IND to improve in some other area(s) of their DEF tonight, so I did pass.  So many queries favor OKC SU, so I will be shocked if IND wins SU and kills my series bet.

Good luck.

Actually, this query's SDQL is simple and could be guessed by many people with only a superficial knowledge of Sports Data Query Language:

PO = 1 and AF and margin > 2.5 and TPP < 20.5 

In the PlayOffs, Away Favorites that win by a margin of at least 3 points shoot less than 20.5 Three Point Percentage.

You can copy and post the query at gimmethedog.com after clicking on the NBA pulldown link.  For some reason the box score links are not working, but you will have the dates for those 5 games, the two oldest of which are from the 2003 season.  

Game 4 was a huge outlier.  There at 250 games in the Sports Database wherein road favorites won by at least 3 points.  In only 5 games (2%) did the winning team shoot less than 20.5% on 3PT FGA's.

Naturally a sample size of 5 games provides no predictive value.

I need OKC to win the next two games to cash my OKC -1.5 games series bet.  Unfortunately I bet early and had to lay -250, so naturally I envy you.

There certainly is a large enough talent gap to expect OKC to win the next two games.  OKC is -380 for tomorrow's game per Scores and Odds and S&O had OKC -238 on the road Friday.

This is a pretty simple query:

PO = 1 and W and round = 4

SU:   128-0 (11.2, 100.0%)

ATS:  111-12-5 (9.4,90.2%) avg line = -1.83 (Obviously a lot of dogs win SU.)

In the playoffs finals (that's round 4), teams that win SU win by an avg margin of 11.2 points and cover by an average of 9.4 points.  The outright winners cover 90.2% of the games.

What can we expect from a huge favorite?  I looked at OKC and since I did not want to query for only games at -9.5, I used a line band of -7 to -12:

PO = 1 and round = 4 and HF and -6.7 > line > -12.2 (SU 16-6, 72.7%) (ATS 9-10-3, 47.4%)

If we assume that the HF wins 100% of the games:

PO = 1 and round = 4 and HF and -6.7 > line > -12.2 and W

SU:   16-0 (11.2,100.0%)

ATS:  9-4-3 (2.2,69.2%) avg line = -8.97

That average ats margin of only 2.2 points does not provide much confidence even though 69.2% is quite appealing.

Good luck to TC and his many tailers.

KenPom is the current king of NCAABB power ratings.  Joe Fortenbaugh has mentioned those ratings several times on ESPN Bet Live.

My sundial is two days fast.

Congratulations.  OKC won and finally covered on the road.

Assuming OKC wins Game 5, that should bode well for Game 6.

OKC has been horribly weak on the road during this season's playoffs:

SU:   4-4 (-7.1, 50.0%)

ATS:  0-8 (-14.1, 0.0%)

Going 4-4 SU on the road is bad enough, but losing by an average of -7.1 points is atrocious, especially for a team that was -635 to take the Finals.

In the playoffs OKC off a loss was 5-0 SU with an average margin of 19.6 points.

Obviously something's gotta give.

I hope you are right, but I am in dire straits with OKC -1.5 games; I need OKC to win 3 straight to salvage my wager.

OKC's DEF has been a crushing disappointment in this series (or IND's OFF has been spectacular).  My stats show that IND's OFF has rattled off 3 straight games of above-average performances (or one could say that OKC's DEF has underperformed for all 3 games vs. IND).  OKC's blowout win in Game 2 was due to their great OFF stats (or IND's weak stats).

I really want OKC's DEF to finally step up and clamp down in Game 4 to give me a bit of hope going forward.

Good luck tonight; as of now I'm still a pass.

I don't have a third eye, but my psychic wart told me to pass on the game.

No regrets.

Poor FLA.  Teams holding a 3-0 lead after the first period of a Stanley Cup Final game had been 26-0.

I don't know what that portends for Game 5, but EDM must be pretty damn happy - especially after getting crushed in Game 3.  

"they" should have "his lines."

Wow - OKC is still favored, maybe because they'll still be favored in every game.

Factoid from ESPN - when the series is tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 takes the series 33-8 (80.5%).  That makes IND a great value to take the series at +whatever.

They were usually with a point or two of each other.  I think of Sagarin as superior because they were/are used in the NCAA basketball tournament selection and seeding.

I certainly miss his ratings.