LAGameofInches

That will do.  Quick W probably should have crushed this game but really, Dortmund is so hard to predict.  Now I can go cook dinner in peace 

Hahaha well of course I should have played the FH 

I'll not be greedy and be happy with two more for the rest of the game but I did state Dortmund would get an early one ;) 

I'm biting, no way do I think that this game is as obvious a snooze fest as most will imagine.  In fact, I think they will get closer to 4 goals than 3.  Maybe I'll be eating my words later but for tonight I will be pulling for this Dortmund team to wake up.  Monterrey is a very strong side especially defensively but if Dortmund can get an early goal, that will change the game flow.  And I think they will do that:

OVER 2.5 (-130) DORTMUND/MONTERREY

tempted to also go over the FH as I think Dortmund, as stated above, will be very motivated to get out of the gates quick.  but with the way this tournament has been going, I'm going to stick with what I have and hope I'm right about what I thought.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to alll....

BTW I know these aren't over but outstanding work.  And I'm tough to please.  

Just please keep it going through the ASB thats' when I can start back up again 

Well I do admit the guy nailed it with Springer prediction and knew Fried would get hit today 

yeah but brutally lost that 1st half they could have easily had a goal the Juve keeper is quite awesome, only reason this wasn't a larger victory for RM.

@football_007

 Once again pointless to correct something you don’t fully read. FRIED is 6-2 not the NYY. So yeah maybe his con no decision was a Yankees loss. Not sure the point mine is he’s quite great on the road. Did you also cross check the ERA ???

I have to think?!?  We are not bros. For context I can’t play or post in baseball bc I used to work on that side for a book so I’m not guessing and I am thinking. Good luck anything is possible I agree but fried is even better this year in NY if you somehow look at real stats. Not just hoping guys like Springer play and manage to hit Mr Unhittable 

Great reading of the spread @MrBator

Gausman is 10-10 lifetime vs. the Yankees and a touch over 3.5 ERA.  So if Fried is dominant the game goes under and the Yanks should still get close to 5 runs today making the -1.5 on the road somewhat appealing. 

When you look further into the numbers Fried is 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA in road affairs and even more sublime during the day where he is 5-1 with a 1.19 ERA.  Tough to argue with that.

Conversely Gausman is 3-2 with a 4.54 ERA at home and a quite pathetic 2-4 with a 5.15 ERA in day games.  Not exactly on the same level and just makes it more compelling.

Good luck hope the data helps guys 

Turning a new leaf into a new month.  We had an exceptional June and end of May, only really losing once along the way.

One of those losses was Juventus' last game as maybe I didn't have the foresight to realize they would give up 5 goals for the first time in over 30 years!  The bad news for them is they have to play Real Madrid but the good news is I think they would have been eliminate by Al Hilal just the same as Man City was.  Even better news for Juve is they most likely will not give up nearly 5 goals tonight.

But...they are the inferior squad and, just as I had predicted last time, Xavi Alonso, the new Real Madrid coach, loves to take it to teams in the first frame and get ahead.  He's made a living do so at Leverkusen and has already started at Madrid where they are unbeaten in the first halves of this tournament.  Though all those goals have come after 30 minutes of play, showing just how sluggish this team has been out the gates the past couple of years.  

I hope to see Mbappe back today but his absence would not be felt by Real Madrid imo.  I also know, having had pancreatitis, how tough it is how painful it is so I feel for him.  Probably will come on in the second half and maybe that's why the FH line is so generous.  But there is ZERO way I do not jump on this with the value baked in.  Getting + odds with a manager who makes a priority out of the FH is a no brainer for me.  Not saying this play is a lock, none are, but with the quality that RM will be putting on the field, I do not think playing a tough Juventus side will make a difference.

REAL MADRID FH (+125)...BIG PLAY!!!:  I realize the big plays have been few and far between here but the total for the first half is 1.5 and juiced to the under so that shows me they are planning on at least a goal in the opening frame and given the analysis above, I feel strongly it will be RM as the victors.

REAL MADRID (-125):  Dani Carvajal and Mbappe are back and will give a much needed boost if it comes to that off the bench and in the second half.  I think the RM defense is strong tonight and I don't see RM losing here or even having to play extra time.

Hard to box a game so be careful as I really do like both plays.  Hoping everyone has a profitable day I also like the later game.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

No problem.  Should be a few goals in the second half as well they will end up burying this squad maybe Al Hilal scores a consolation.

Thanks guys. Should be an entertaining game. 

Well, sometimes the games you win are the ones you don't play.

Last night I was about to back the USA but then thought they are so young and imbalanced but playing on home soil has a serious advantage as they had never lost to Costa Rica.  BUT, that didn't mean that extra time wouldn't come into play thereby killing my wager.  Well, as we saw, it sure did and I'm sure glad I didn't post that game and ruin the sublime run we are on.

As for INTER, I was going to start a thread on them.  When teams lose their coach, especially in soccer, things completely change.  In fact, it is rare that teams change coaches mid way through the year and find success having done so as so many playing styles and strategies are so dependent on the squad.  And when those game plans change, well, the squad needs to also pivot.  In the case of INTER, they are/were Inazghi's squad.  They now are being helmed by Christian Chivu who has shown me nothing in game planning from the touch line.  I have him less than 70% to finish the entire year off and I think will struggle to motivate players like Thuram who can get into lulls and out of game flow.  INTER will be a HUGE fade this year in Serie A as they will be heavily favored and, as stated, I think will be incredibly overrated based on coaching, not talent.

So while I'm happy I didn't play those games, I'm looking forward to the tilt upcoming.  Simone Inzaghi's new team, Al-Hillal, take on Man City in a game which will send the winner to play Fluminese.  Irony is, Inzaghi has been terrible vs Pep and now is manning a team that allows him to pad his bank account, but I don't think the scoreline.  At least not tonight.  Pep will have these guys motivated, he completely wants to win this tournament, and I think the chemistry of Man City will be even better than last time out.  That game saw my first loss in a bit as I had pitted a low scoring affair. Today I'm going to lay off the goals, and back the team that is better and will come out fired out to grab the lead:

MANCHESTER CITY FH (-160):  I know, these prices are sometimes hard to drop but the -160 has been very favorable for cashing in this tournament at least and I just think they have so much more firepower on display than Al Hilal who I expect to be chasing the game.  They are also out their captain and top goal scorer in Salem Al Dawsari.

We will see about Real Madrid tomorrow but for now I hope to see many of you at the window.  If it's too rich, maybe parlay it with another play but baseball is a total joke for wagering especially this year so be careful.  Though I cant' see Philly and Zach Wheeler losing tonight.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Great record, lot of juice.

I like the OVER 9 in the game between NYY and Toronto.  Simply put, neither pitcher has had much if any success against their opponent.  I think people will get caught up in a Scherzer vs. Rodon matchup and the latter is only 2-2 with a 5.02 ERA agains the Jays.  Add to that the trend has greatly favored the OVER when these two square off and that would be my play.

Good luck on Philly tonight Wheeler should mow down just a hefty price

Prob worth an UNDER in that game as well.  Plus the under is 3-7 when these two square off.  Good luck on your plays today 

They will probably score two more in the second half and that will be all.  Maybe FLamengo gets one meaningless other goal or puts some pressure on Bayern?  Either way Flamengo is cooked.

Missed posting this Am, go figure.  But will get this one in because this is really a mismatch.  I like the Flamengo story but they will not have faced a side as strong as Bayern Munich and if reassurances are needed, they have them on their bench.  Flamengo has been scoring in the 2nd halves more than the first but I'm not sure I want to back too much first half action in case the styles clash and produce a bit of a snoozer.  If not, it will because Bayern have broken down the Flamengo defense.  I mean come on, even LAFC tied them and you saw what happened with Inter Miami this morning.  I think the game will be respectable, but I just don't see Bayern faltering as I think they really do want to win this trophy.  Maybe a 2-0 final to Bayern, if I'm trying to be even more accurate one scored in each half.  Long shot I nail that exact play but I will be trying to nail down:

BAYERN MUNICH (-160):  Hefty price but I've picked my spots and I just don't see them putting up a total dud with the likes of Musiala and Guerreriro on the bench should they be called upon, which they will be.

Play this one with confidence but the price is too high for a big play on my end.  See you all at the window!  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

@Brooklyncapper

Yeah so nuts how quickly teams fall due to the plethora of injuries. I also think they need Vientos’ bat back and Baty has been not very good 

Must be hard not to back your Mets?  Burrows looks ripe for a killing today.

Marlins 2-22 vs. LHP.  Just saying.