LAGameofInches

@River_fish

Huh? My win?!? First off I didn’t bet it nor write that afterwards guy. I’m just super familiar with pitchers made comment stating Kelly has that tendency.  Secondly why would I come into his thread after a game lost and selfishly gloat about a win?!  Regardless, I didn’t even play it. Just followed his threads and he had dropped 2 of 3 NRFI last night so was trying to help. How you read anything different means you don’t even comprehend comments 

Wow you really think all those games are going UNDER when we are in the year of the overs?  I hope you win them all but I'm just surprised you have neglected the overs today.  Not sure how the Orioles will hit Skenes 

wish I hadn't been correct on this.  good luck with the SD NRFI 

@Raiders22

Yes, it is correct.  No better place to look for those stats than MLB.com.  They have only lost 20 games by ONE run which, after subtracting from their overall 105 losses, leaves 85 losses by more than one run.  Another analytic which says the same thing is that 81% of their losses have been by more than one run.  

Just sharing this in a sport where the analytics should be the basis for your wagering (given bullpens, errors, and horrible umpiring), this is one I might ride the rest of the way.

@s1ick

I've seen it.  And actually went against it b/c it was so high and it cashed.  Rare but has happened.

Yes, this NRFI is a tough bet especially this late in the season with pitchers wearing down.  I've watched Kelly get hit in the 1st then crush the rest of the way, wish it were someone like DeGrom on the bump 

I have posted this in other threads but have made a nice little mint on it.  If you go against the Rockies every game you will have won a TON more than lost, obviously.  But even with 105 losses the price to play against them is always going to be expensive.  BUT...they have lost an INSANE amount of those 105 games by MORE than 1 run, despite which ballpark they play in.  In fact, they are a mere 17-20 in ONE RUN games meaning- doing simple math here- they have lost 85 games by more than one run.  Think about that...most teams don't even lose 85 games let alone lose them by 2+ runs.

It's not 100% obviously, but is a money maker week after week and will be for the remainder of the season.  You will give back some coin in the occasional wins but you will not be as exposed as playing against them on the ML and, tbh, they have only lost 20 games so far that don't fit into this situation which is meager given how awful they are.

Just wanted to share this angle as well 

Dodgers won, on run line as again the Rockies get blasted, and on Team Total last night.  Freeland won't keep them any closer tonight.  Good luck 

Also took this last night.  Peralta really solid during day games and imo an underdog for Cy Young.  Good luck 

@Premian

They will be crushing tonight.  I might take TT over for the LAD as well that's how strongly I feel about it. Which would be good for all LAD plays :). Good luck 

I just wrote in another thread...wait for it....only 20 of the 104 losses by the Rockies have come by LESS than 2 runs.  Remarkable plight.

And thanks for backing me yesterday with SKOAL.  Got back to 5-5 after dropping 5 units in one sitting on Sunday NFL.  Which is extremely rare so I'm confident a bounce back week is upcoming .

Until then I will visit the MLB forum and see any opps to cash.

Thats craziness dropping that type of coin.  I have made quite a bit of cash going against the Rockies -1.5 since they only 20 of their 104 losses have come by less than one run.  That is TRULY incredible if you do the math.  

@Brooklyncapper

Do you consider the OVERS too?  Seems as though not vetting that side of the play out makes it really tough to cash nightly especially given the bullpen distress and horrible umpiring (rated the worst in history of MLB this year!).  

I've been off the forum while concentrating on football so also not sure your current record since you used to always post it.  Apologies if it's in the past couple threads.  I tailed you for a bit and got crushed (no blame, was my own fault since I continually cite bullpen meltdowns and errors leading to runs) so I'm just curious as to where things stand. 

Also, at least imo, Tucker is not that big a loss since he has been dismal since ASB, only just recently coming out of a slump.  I worry more about Striders close to 5 ERA and 12 losses. I agree that Horton is really solid. 

I'd really love the Mets to get into the playoffs but they have to find a way of beating Philly or else they are going to see their lead shrink even more so.  And I personally have zero for the Phillies so hoping the Diamondbacks take care of them next weekend but the Mets need to win tonight and help themselves!

@Cranky_Hank

And Brewers.  I like Quintana to bounce back tonight as well.  Texas is good at home and needs the W's but so do the Brewers and they, Milwaukee, are the far superior team.  Even if the Rangers had guys like Semien and Seager 

SKOAL!

I took them as well. They are quite good bs LHP as opposed to Texas vs southpaws 

@Macwestie1

 Thanks and same to you 

it will go over he's not the same guy and the Phils can hit at home 

YTD (NFL):  4-5 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 1-2 ATS)

I'm starting to believe maybe the FH is my way to go given I'm 4-0 playing those angles and dropped 5 units (2 big play losses) on FG plays yesterday during the day.  I was at the baseball game and the service was spotty (so was the action) and I couldn't post my afternoon play on the Rams at home.  Sean McVay was 5-1 in home openers and I thought the line was a bit low.  I did post the Ravens FH last night vs. full game as I know this team very well and was not confident they wouldn't self combust at the end of the game as they have so many times over the past couple years, especially early on in the season.  And....well, they did just that, very similar to losing the opening night game last year vs. KC by a toenail, literally.

Tonight's play is setting up to be unfavorable in this forum but I just keep thinking back to a couple of years ago, when Matt Rhule was super hyped up and took over in Carolina only to have much of the same take shape.  I know that Ben Johnson, the new Bears HC is legit, just look at how inept the Lions were in his absence, but I'm not sure playing against a team that knows his offensive schemes well and that more or less own the Bears having gone 7-1 SU against them over the past 8, is enough to back them.  Of course there will be loads of Bears backers as there seem to be quite often in these "big games" featuring them, but I think they are going to come up short again tonight.  The line is super short and I also am not sure about JJ McCarthy but I think we see him run quite a bit and that be the difference here.

For me, only one way to play this game...

MINNESOTA ML (-110):  No real feeling on the total but I just don't see the Vikings and Justin Jefferson losing this prime time opportunity 

No BIG PLAY tonight gonna get back to .500 and re-assess.  I'm still a bit dazed from losing all 3 plays in the early games yesterday but I did learn a bit about a few teams that I will take to the bank moving forward.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

both those teams are 38-30 NRFI in the situation for tonight (road/home)

Got crushed today and not happy about a few things including the Dbacks game going super long and them losing the way they love to lose with the bullpen blowing it.  Anyways, posting this and playing it:

BALTIMORE FH (-110)

that was a big play but after this AM I laid off a bit so going to keep it simple.  After all it's only week 1.  Will update record later as always tail or fade good luck to all...

Great start for that OVER.  Ok, I'll stop let's assess when games finish.  Thanks everyone and hope you all have a very profitable day