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#1
Henley v Piercy
The last 2 tourneys, Piercy has been awful. Missed the cut at the Open and the PGA. Henley has played good the last 2 tourneys. -9 at the Travelers, and -4 at the PGA. Going with the momentum here.
Keegan v Dufner
Duftmeister hasn't been terrible, but he hasn't been great. 60th, 22nd, 51st the last 3 tourneys. This is more of a play on Keegan. I've faded him a lot this year, but I think this shorter course fits him great. He will drive the ball great into these shorter holes, and leave himself easy approach shots which should help his putting woes...and I think his putting is getting better. He's made cuts the last 6 tourneys, and has improved his finishes the last 3 tourneys.
Johnson Wagner v Luke Donald
On the surface, you probably say Luke Donald is the easy play...but let's look at the numbers...which will surprise you...cause they certainly surprised me! Luke Donald has missed the cut 4 out of the last 6 tourneys. He hasn't finished a tourney under par since the Valero Open in April! His best finish in the last 7 tourneys is 43rd. Johnson Wagner isn't exactly on fire, but but he finished -15 at the John Deere, and has finished under par 6 out of the last 8 tourneys.
Freddie Jacobson v Graeme McDowell
I have very little confidence in Jacobson. But I have even less confidence in McDowell who has missed the cut horribly the last 2 tourneys...and has one tourney under par in the last 11. He's finished +9, +7, +10, +6. +6, +5, +9...he's been awful. Freddie isn't lighting the golfing world on fire, but he's at least finished under par a few times in the last couple months.
Harris English v JB Holmes
God D*amnitt I hate bets that involve Holmes, but I can't resist. Holmes is so inconsistent...he's gonna miss the cut or finish 3rd. To prove this point, here are the stats. JB Homes has missed the cut 4 times the last 7 tourneys he's played in. The tourneys he made the cut he's finished 27th, 4th, and 3rd. So good luck figuring this guys out. But the last 2 tourneys he's been bad...finishing +4 and +7 at the PGA and the Travelers. English has made the cut the last 7 tourneys, but only has one top 25 finish in those tourneys. So basically we are hoping Holmes misses the cut.
Couple of top 20 finishes I like the odds on...will sprinkle a little on each of these:
Tyrell Hatton +220 (4 straight top 17 finishes)
Jimmy Walker +150 (2 straight top 15 finishes...we think he's dialing in for the fedex cup)
Danny Lee +325 (love the value here...Lee can contend for the win)
Webb Simpson +120 (Webb is playing solid golf now and has 3 straight top 11 finishes at this tourney, and 5 out of the last 6)
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