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#1
US Open Plays
Has been raining in Ardmore for for the better part of the last week and storms are in the forecast for tomorrow and Friday, but the course drains pretty well besides a few spots from what I have been reading. People think this might lead to some lower than normal scores for a US Open but I disagree. Id be surprised if the winning score was much better than 5 under par. The weekend weather looks to be great, and with these narrow, sloped fairways, the rough will be hit a lot. Right now it is already at 5.5 inches they are saying and with more rain tomorrow it could only get longer. Hitting the fairways is going to be crucial to be able to take aim at these tough PIN positions which are going to be purposely placed in difficult spots to compensate for the shorter holes. Fairways hit and the ability to get up and down are two of the main things I am looking for this week. Par 3 scoring should be huge also as there are some serious monster par 3s
To Win bets
Graeme McDowell 20/1 (.5 U) - His history at the US Open speaks for itself as a former champion and perhaps should have won a 2nd as well. He has won twice this year but one was on the European tour. He would be 1st in fairway percentage hit if he qualified with enough rounds on tour this year. He should have plenty of birdie chances this week and knowing what it takes to win a US Open makes me really like him this week
Lee Westwood 28/1 (.5U) - Yes he has not won a major, but going by the stats I find important this week he is a likely contender - 40th in fairways hit, 27th in Par 3 performance, and most importantly his wedges are money around the green as he is 3rd on tour in getting up and down. His up and down capabilities should really help him at Merion this week. Just hoping no mental breakdown occurs.
Jim Furyk 40/1 and Henrik Stenson 50/1 (.25 unit each) - two guys who hit the ball straight and have always been really solid ball strikers. We should have plenty of birdie opportunities from both of these guys and if they are putting should be in the mix come sunday. Plus, Furyk's past history at US Opens definitely helps
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 20 - Yes (+105) - 1 unit ... like him to play well this week but dont love his odds to win. I think this is a must play at + odds
Tournament H 2 H
David Toms +110 over Stewart Cink - Risking 3 Units
This is my big bet for the tournament. Love the matchup. Toms playing well and is top 30 in fairways hit and is decent around the green. Meanwhile Cink is 120+ ranked in accuracy off the tee, par 3 scoring and scrambling around the greens. Id doubt he even makes the cut this week at Merion.
Furyk -110 over Sergio - 2.2 units to win 2 units
I really like Furyk this week. Sergio can have problems off the tee although he has straightened out his putter as of late so I think his head may not be on straight and could be distracted having to answer fried chicken questions all week.
I am not playing any first round matchups due to the uncertainty of getting the round in tomorrow because of the water but I will post Daily Matchups I play in the later rounds.
Good luck
Has been raining in Ardmore for for the better part of the last week and storms are in the forecast for tomorrow and Friday, but the course drains pretty well besides a few spots from what I have been reading. People think this might lead to some lower than normal scores for a US Open but I disagree. Id be surprised if the winning score was much better than 5 under par. The weekend weather looks to be great, and with these narrow, sloped fairways, the rough will be hit a lot. Right now it is already at 5.5 inches they are saying and with more rain tomorrow it could only get longer. Hitting the fairways is going to be crucial to be able to take aim at these tough PIN positions which are going to be purposely placed in difficult spots to compensate for the shorter holes. Fairways hit and the ability to get up and down are two of the main things I am looking for this week. Par 3 scoring should be huge also as there are some serious monster par 3s
To Win bets
Graeme McDowell 20/1 (.5 U) - His history at the US Open speaks for itself as a former champion and perhaps should have won a 2nd as well. He has won twice this year but one was on the European tour. He would be 1st in fairway percentage hit if he qualified with enough rounds on tour this year. He should have plenty of birdie chances this week and knowing what it takes to win a US Open makes me really like him this week
Lee Westwood 28/1 (.5U) - Yes he has not won a major, but going by the stats I find important this week he is a likely contender - 40th in fairways hit, 27th in Par 3 performance, and most importantly his wedges are money around the green as he is 3rd on tour in getting up and down. His up and down capabilities should really help him at Merion this week. Just hoping no mental breakdown occurs.
Jim Furyk 40/1 and Henrik Stenson 50/1 (.25 unit each) - two guys who hit the ball straight and have always been really solid ball strikers. We should have plenty of birdie opportunities from both of these guys and if they are putting should be in the mix come sunday. Plus, Furyk's past history at US Opens definitely helps
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 20 - Yes (+105) - 1 unit ... like him to play well this week but dont love his odds to win. I think this is a must play at + odds
Tournament H 2 H
David Toms +110 over Stewart Cink - Risking 3 Units
This is my big bet for the tournament. Love the matchup. Toms playing well and is top 30 in fairways hit and is decent around the green. Meanwhile Cink is 120+ ranked in accuracy off the tee, par 3 scoring and scrambling around the greens. Id doubt he even makes the cut this week at Merion.
Furyk -110 over Sergio - 2.2 units to win 2 units
I really like Furyk this week. Sergio can have problems off the tee although he has straightened out his putter as of late so I think his head may not be on straight and could be distracted having to answer fried chicken questions all week.
I am not playing any first round matchups due to the uncertainty of getting the round in tomorrow because of the water but I will post Daily Matchups I play in the later rounds.
Good luck
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