The Travelers

Nick Taylor (160-1)

Couple more adds, I think these are just bad numbers. A lot of value down the board this week IMO. Still have plenty of room to add 2-3 more. Write up later 

Russell Henley (55-1)

Daniel Berger (75-1)

Top 20 (ties included):

Russell Henley (+125)

Daniel Berger (+150)

An interesting US Open last week at Oakmont that I personally enjoyed very much but I do see many complaining of the difficulty of the course.  Well those people should be satisfied this week now that we get back to a typical bland, forgiving, TPC setup that we see constantly on the pga tour. Another TPC setup that requires minimal thought and decision making, but I digress. The travelers championship at least is typically a good event overall that attracts a lot of golf fans in the northeast. This event will take place at TPC River Highlands in Connecticut which is a very short, tree-lined par 70 measuring out at just 6,835 yards, among the shortest courses on the pga tour. This really allows shorter players to compete and is partly why I will likely have a big outright card this week of guys at longer odds. River Highlands is a Pete dye design with fairly thick rough, narrow fairways, and tiny green complexes. This event has consistently shown that players who are accurate off the tee, dialed in with their wedges, and have a hot putter are able to separate. I’ll detail below what I’m looking for.

Although nothing at River Highlands is significantly penile, the rough is higher than your average pga tour stop. Players who can keep the ball in the fairway will be able avoid tree trouble and the rough that can cause some minor issues. There’s a reason players like Brian harman, Shane Lowry, and Russell Henley have had alot of success here. While I certainly prefer players that are accurate off the tee, I don’t think off the tee play is the best indicator of success at this event. Given how short the course is and a few holes with dog legs this event typically results in a low driver usage rate where players will club down off the tee at times, decreasing the importance of OTT play, I will be weighing approach play and putting higher than usual as I think you can get away with an average week with the driver. There are a ton of wedges in to greens and players shouldn’t have too much trouble hitting greens out of the rough if they do miss the fairways. I’ll have strokes gained OTT and driving accuracy in my modeling but at a reduced weight, with more of an emphasis on accuracy.

Approach play should be a reliable way to separate here. The majority of approaches will come from 100-175 yards, with an emphasis on the lower end resulting in a lot of wedge shots in. These are very small greens but with this venue not typically playing firm and fast and having pretty benign green complexes players shouldn’t have many issues hitting greens. Players that give themselves the most make-able birdie looks will put themselves in the optimal position for success as usual. This will lead me to take a strong look at long term wedge proximity and recent approach play which will be the highest weight in my modeling.

The around the green areas here are primarily lined with thick rough, and there are some fairly challenging shots to get up and down. The thick rough though does effectively decreases the skill gap given the difficulty of controlling chip shots out of the rough. These are small greens so players will have to get up and down occasionally, but if you are constantly scrambling here you are already in trouble therefore I won’t be weighing around the green play much this week. Given this tournament will likely be won at -20 or better players will have to make a bunch of birdie putts to contend. You can really separate with the putter here as players will see a ton of putts from 5-15 ft on pretty basic green complexes. I am typically not a big fan of putting a strong emphasis on putting stats, but I will absolutely be looking for guys that are in form with the putter and/or good long term bent/poa putters as you see these guys fill leaderboards at this event year after year. 

Continued…

There are some very relevant comp courses to look at this week to get an idea of who plays well on these short, positional golf courses that emphasize accuracy off the tee. Harbour Town, Sedgefield, Colonial, and TPC Deer Run all have a lot in common with tpc river highlands as they all are short tracks that emphasize wedge play and keeping the ball in the fairways. I will be looking at players that have had success on all of these courses. I will also be looking at good par 4 scorers, history in easy scoring conditions, and players who have had success on Pete dye designs/TPC setups. Ultimately what we want here are players that will keep the ball in the fairways, but most importantly in form approach players/wedge play, players with putting upside, and players who have had success on these comparative courses. I’ll be back to add