Posted:
#1
Nick Taylor (160-1)
The Travelers
Views: 996
Posts: 23
Posted:
#4
An interesting US Open last week at Oakmont that I personally enjoyed very much but I do see many complaining of the difficulty of the course. Well those people should be satisfied this week now that we get back to a typical bland, forgiving, TPC setup that we see constantly on the pga tour. Another TPC setup that requires minimal thought and decision making, but I digress. The travelers championship at least is typically a good event overall that attracts a lot of golf fans in the northeast. This event will take place at TPC River Highlands in Connecticut which is a very short, tree-lined par 70 measuring out at just 6,835 yards, among the shortest courses on the pga tour. This really allows shorter players to compete and is partly why I will likely have a big outright card this week of guys at longer odds. River Highlands is a Pete dye design with fairly thick rough, narrow fairways, and tiny green complexes. This event has consistently shown that players who are accurate off the tee, dialed in with their wedges, and have a hot putter are able to separate. I’ll detail below what I’m looking for.
Although nothing at River Highlands is significantly penile, the rough is higher than your average pga tour stop. Players who can keep the ball in the fairway will be able avoid tree trouble and the rough that can cause some minor issues. There’s a reason players like Brian harman, Shane Lowry, and Russell Henley have had alot of success here. While I certainly prefer players that are accurate off the tee, I don’t think off the tee play is the best indicator of success at this event. Given how short the course is and a few holes with dog legs this event typically results in a low driver usage rate where players will club down off the tee at times, decreasing the importance of OTT play, I will be weighing approach play and putting higher than usual as I think you can get away with an average week with the driver. There are a ton of wedges in to greens and players shouldn’t have too much trouble hitting greens out of the rough if they do miss the fairways. I’ll have strokes gained OTT and driving accuracy in my modeling but at a reduced weight, with more of an emphasis on accuracy.
Approach play should be a reliable way to separate here. The majority of approaches will come from 100-175 yards, with an emphasis on the lower end resulting in a lot of wedge shots in. These are very small greens but with this venue not typically playing firm and fast and having pretty benign green complexes players shouldn’t have many issues hitting greens. Players that give themselves the most make-able birdie looks will put themselves in the optimal position for success as usual. This will lead me to take a strong look at long term wedge proximity and recent approach play which will be the highest weight in my modeling.
The around the green areas here are primarily lined with thick rough, and there are some fairly challenging shots to get up and down. The thick rough though does effectively decreases the skill gap given the difficulty of controlling chip shots out of the rough. These are small greens so players will have to get up and down occasionally, but if you are constantly scrambling here you are already in trouble therefore I won’t be weighing around the green play much this week. Given this tournament will likely be won at -20 or better players will have to make a bunch of birdie putts to contend. You can really separate with the putter here as players will see a ton of putts from 5-15 ft on pretty basic green complexes. I am typically not a big fan of putting a strong emphasis on putting stats, but I will absolutely be looking for guys that are in form with the putter and/or good long term bent/poa putters as you see these guys fill leaderboards at this event year after year.
Posted:
#5
Continued…
There are some very relevant comp courses to look at this week to get an idea of who plays well on these short, positional golf courses that emphasize accuracy off the tee. Harbour Town, Sedgefield, Colonial, and TPC Deer Run all have a lot in common with tpc river highlands as they all are short tracks that emphasize wedge play and keeping the ball in the fairways. I will be looking at players that have had success on all of these courses. I will also be looking at good par 4 scorers, history in easy scoring conditions, and players who have had success on Pete dye designs/TPC setups. Ultimately what we want here are players that will keep the ball in the fairways, but most importantly in form approach players/wedge play, players with putting upside, and players who have had success on these comparative courses. I’ll be back to add
Posted:
#7
Everything in so far, I still have room for another outright with most of these being small investments and will add positionals.
Outrights:
Russell Henley (55-1)
Hideki Matsuyama (55-1)
Daniel Berger (75-1)
Akshay Bhatia (80-1)
Nick Taylor (160-1)
Top 10 (ties included):
Tommy Fleetwood (+240)
Top 20 (ties included):
Russell Henley (+125)
Daniel Berger (+150)
Posted:
#11
Quote Originally Posted by Createyourluck:
@Rollz Hey Rollz been following for a while, thanks for all you do here in the forum. Curious on how you play these. Is each play each week a 1 unit bet on outrights and positions or do you mix it up? Thanks and good luck this week, I’ll be tailing a few
@Rollz Hey Rollz been following for a while, thanks for all you do here in the forum. Curious on how you play these. Is each play each week a 1 unit bet on outrights and positions or do you mix it up? Thanks and good luck this week, I’ll be tailing a few
Whats up buddy, positionals are just a standard 1 unit play while the outrights are typically wagered to pay out around $1,500. So depends on the odds with the outrights but id say on average im putting anywhere from 0.1 to 0.75 units per outright. I also try to limit myself to 1 unit total on outright plays just to avoid being overexposed. Ill go just past that if i feel like there is value that i cant pass up but thats generally how i structure it.
Posted:
#12
Quote Originally Posted by Boa33:
@Rollz I like Bhatia this week.
@Rollz I like Bhatia this week.
This should in theory be a great spot for him. I just love that he has huge upside with both the wedges and putter. 5th here last year and 3rd at the players this year which is another positional, pete dye track. Also great in easier scoring conditions, just think a lot lines up for him here.
Posted:
#14
Quote Originally Posted by Boa33:
@Rollz Thoughts on CBez?
@Rollz Thoughts on CBez?
Just took a look, yeah man he makes alot of sense here. He’s gained on approach significantly in 3 of last 4 starts which is a big turn around from him compared to what he was doing prior. Also been good at sawgrass and tpc Deere run. I don’t really think he’s he’s going to win here but this is a golf course he could win in if he has it going. Positional might make more sense. Thanks for sharing I may stick him in some of my DFS lineups
Posted:
#21
I still may pick up an outright have a little room. As Boa mentioned above I am also seeing a wave edge for early morning tee times Thursday just fyi, I’m not restructuring my card over it but will make some adjustments in DFS. GL!
Outrights:
Russell Henley (55-1)
Hideki Matsuyama (55-1)
Daniel Berger (75-1)
Akshay Bhatia (80-1)
Nick Taylor (160-1)
Top 10 (ties included):
Tommy Fleetwood (+240)
Keegan Bradley (+260)
Hideki Matsuyama (+350)
Top 20 (ties included):
Russell Henley (+125)
Daniel Berger (+150)
Akshay Bhatia (+170)
Jason Day (+170)
Posted:
#23
Man what a choke job from Fleetwood, really thought he was going to get it done. Henley was a mistake or 2 away from potentially winning. Was able to get a small hedge down on Bradley to at least profit a little off of Henley mixing.
Was a great week otherwise with 4/7 positionals cashing, 1 unit bettors would have profited about 5 units. I’m a little late on research for the upcoming week may or may not get some outrights up tonight 
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