Just getting ahead of a couple numbers for the last major of the year. Normally wouldn’t do this for an open given how important weather/tee times can be for this event, but I don’t think these numbers will last on a couple guys that I think have the skillset to make some noise at Royal Portrush.
Will have a write up within the next couple days 
Russell Henley (60-1)
Nick Taylor (170-1)
He's playing some of the most consistent golf of his career right now. Thought 170-1 was a bad number considering that. Not likely to win obviously and only has 2 appearances in open championships, both missed cuts. But liked that he played well in scotland this past week,just thought it was a good value for a guy that actually wins golf tournaments. Additionally, I think accuracy off the tee will be huge this week and hes rating out as one of the most accurate guys in this field in the past year for me. If he can avoid the trouble and hit greens like he has been I think he can compete. He does everything well which should be rewarded on a course like this.
Super excited for this week at Royal Portrush. The open is always one of the best weeks of the year, just a different brand of golf than we’re used to seeing which is extremely refreshing. I know we got a sniff of it this past week at the Renaissance club, but that’s not a true links course as it is really manufactured to appear as one. Portrush on the other hand is an 137 year old golf course with extreme natural rolling dunes cultivated by time. Just rewatched some of the 2019 open at Portrush and man is it a beautiful landscape that truly requires a lot of thought rather than just point and shoot golf that we have unfortunately grown accustomed to in the states. Portrush is a par 71 Harry Colt design measuring out at 7,381 yards this year according to the GCSAA sheet, a bit longer than we saw previously in 2019 with some added length on a couple of the more difficult holes from that event. The turf is the typical fescue grass that we see on links courses with 2 in thick rough for the first 6 ft off the fairway on average, followed by some truly brutal fescue grass areas that players will surely want to avoid. This along with penile pot bunkers, tricky uneven lies, extreme mounding, severe green contours, and more than likely windy conditions will serve as the primary defenses of this golf course. While the course is right out in front of you if you can avoid some of this trouble, that’ll still be a tough ask for the majority of the field. I’ll detail below what I think the best path for success will be at The Open this year, but here’s a hint (you need to be sharp everywhere) 
You will not want any part of players that are susceptible to big misses off the tee at Portrush. I don’t think having distance off the tee here is big enough of an advantage to prioritize it this week, instead I’ll be prioritizing accuracy given the brutality that will occur on wayward drives, not to mention the pot bunkers that will cause a real penalty contrary to most pga tour bunkering. The extremely overgrown fescue grass areas and gorse bushes will serve as a death sentence. Maybe im being a little hyperbolic and there is a little breathing room with the 6 ft of moderate 2 in rough, but if you’re hitting it outside of that with any consistency you have no chance. With that said, these fairways are quite narrow and all players should face atleast a little adversity due to this, but the guys with tighter dispersion patterns this week will absolutely have the edge. Therefore, I’ll be prioritizing quality recent off the tee play with a heavy emphasis on accuracy. We saw this play out in 2019 with Lowry and Fleetwood finishing 1st and 2nd, 2 of the more accurate players on tour.
Approach play will also be a significant focus of mine this week. These are small green surfaces with some very creative and severe contours. The winner this week will almost certainly have the irons dialed in order to hit some of the small quadrants needed for manageable birdie looks. When missing these greens; players will face some high degree of difficulty chip shots with even small misses at times running out into the unpredictable brush, which effectively increases the importance of approach play in my opinion in order to avoid some of these shots. One important thing to note, a lot of these green surfaces are raised. Typically on a links course you can often play low running shots into very large greens which can allow some of the lesser iron players to shine, this isn’t really the case this week with these elevated, small green surfaces requiring higher trajectories in order to hold approaches.
Continued…
I really think you want quality iron players at Portrush. This course will ultimately test the whole bag in terms of proximity into greens, therefore I will solely be looking at recent approach play rather than specific proximity numbers.
With the fact that these are small, contoured greens and that we’ll likely see some weather given this is the open, you’re going to get a lower greens in regulation percentage. Players will have to get up and down a fair bit from difficult bunkering and tricky green side areas into elevated surfaces. I really don’t want any part of players that struggle around the greens at this venue. The Texas wedge will be available at times, but I think far less than your average links course. Players that have a quality around the green game will be set up for success. I’ve mentioned how these greens are extremely sloped and will be difficult to putt on as well. I also don’t necessarily want players that have zero putting form. Depending on weather, I’m guessing we’ll see a winning score in the mid to high teens so you will have to make some birdie putts to contend. Players that are in form with the putter and have had some success putting on links courses in the past should get a nod here.
There’s clearly a theme here that you don’t really see a lot on the pga tour, I think you need to have every aspect of your game working to contend on this golf course. Accuracy off the tee and recent approach play are probably the most important skills to have here, but I like a balanced skill set for the players I’m backing this week. I don’t think there’s a lot of courses that stack up to this one in terms of similarities. Looking at past open championship success, past success in windy conditions, and recent form are all worth checking out. It’s probably worth waiting to see what the weather is going to do and when guys are teeing off before constructing a full card. That’s all I’ve got, stoked for this week it’s going to be an amazing watch! 
Hideki at 90-1 is a ridiculous price for his pedigree. He’s obviously not playing well right now and his driver scares me, but definitely intrigued at that number. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if he won an open at some point in his career. Im a hideki guy though so maybe a little bias in this statement
@TRAIN69
What’s up train,
Man that would be a big list, but I will jot down some of the notable guys on the top half of the odds board that I personally have zero interest in. No way this will come back to bite me in the ass 
Justin Thomas*
Min Woo Lee*
Joaquin Niemann
Sam Burns
Keegan Bradley
Cam Smith
Nicolai Hojgaard
Tony Finau
Dustin Johnson
Max Greyserman
Love Rahm, I kind of regret not starting my outright card there. But I’m sure I’ll have plenty exposure to him in DFS depending on ownership.
Straka makes a lot of sense and I might end up wrapping up my card with him. Worry a little bit with him around the greens here; but there’s a world where he just hits more greens than anyone else in the field and doesn’t have to get up and down too much
I would add Aldrich Potgieter and Wyndham Clark to this list as well. Primarily guys that I think are just too wild off the tee to compete at this golf course with a couple exceptions.
I agree with you. I think glover could be a good low owned DFS play this week. Good chance he will be in some of my lineups as well!
Sorry man not sure I understand the question the way its worded. I dont venture into the head 2 head market, but if your asking if round and tourney matchups are both available then the answer is yes, you can find both.
If anyone is wondering I have been monitoring weather. Keep in mind this has been changing rapidly and probably will change again before thursday as this is Ireland and weather is bipolar. With that said as of now it definitely looks like the best time to be on the golf course will be friday PM with very benign winds. Guys that tee off early on thursday might be a good look, but I say this with very little confidence given the fact that weather changes on a dime off the coast of Northern Ireland.
Another outright add, Just an absurd number on hideki and gives me room to potentially add 1 more. I really like this golf course for him if he can manage to drive it on the planet, its a big if but im more than willing to find out at these odds. I have some interest in the 6-1 for him to top 10 as well
Hideki Matsuyama (90-1)
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
