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    All Forums | Pro Golf

    The Memorial Picks

    alangrrbs
    PuttForeDough
    sacker17
    AJLightning
    Maddog1987
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 1278
    Posts: 17
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
    Veteran
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    Joined: Aug, 2011
    Posts: 4739
    Posted: May. 30, 2017 - 10:50 PM ET #1

    Did a ton of research on these plays today.  Really hope the hard work pays off.  Went in to a lot of depth on the podcast today...would really appreciate the listen and subscribe.

    I am playing these both first round and full tourney.  I posted the tee times of the golfers this week because last week it was a big deal with the weather.  This week doesn't seem to be a big deal, but here they are in case anyone is wondering.

    Beyong Hun An ov Kevin chappell


    I get the golfer with momentum and the better finish here last year.  Hun An finished 11th at this tournament last year, and coming into the tournament, he’s got two top 10 finishes and a 24th.  Chappell coming off a 35th at the Players, and before that he won at the Valero, and had a 7th at the Masters, but before that nothing inside the top 40.  So I went back and looked at his previous years, and in 2016 he played great at the Valero (4th place), 2nd at The Players…48th at the Memorial.  2015 49th at The Memorial…2014 Missed Cut at The Memorial.  So I just think he doesn’t translate too well to this course despite playing good at a few tournaments recently.


    tee times

    Hun an- 7:30  Chappell-8:48


    Matt Kuchar ov Rickie Fowler


    This is Fowlers last tournament before the US Open, so I’m sure he wants to play really good here, but the fact is Fowler has been bad at this tournament the last 3 years.  He missed the cut the last 3 years.  In 2014 he wasn’t playing great coming into the Memorial, and he missed the cut.  In 2015 he was coming off a win and a 9th place finish…and he missed the cut.  In 2016 he was coming off a 4th and a missed cut…and he missed the cut at The Memorial.  It just seems like no matter what form Fowler is in, he doesn’t play good here.  This year he missed the cut at the Zurich with his partner, and then shot +7 at The Players and finished 60th.  So he’s not coming in on fire.  Meanwhile, Matt Kuchar in the last 9 tournaments here has 8 top 15 finishes, 6 of those top 10 finishes, 4 of those were top 5 finishes, and one of those was a win.  Last year, 4th place here.  Kuchar is coming off of a 12th, and a 9th place finish so he’s in good form right now.


    tee times

    Kuchar-12:54  Fowler-1:16


    Patrick Reed ov Justin Thomas


    Patrick Reed seems to have broken out of his funk, especially with the putter.  He really struggled in the beginning of the year, and even went on a 3 tournament missed cut streak.  However, since the Zurich he’s got a 12th at the Wells Fargo, a 22nd at The Players, and a 20th at the Byron Nelson.  Justin Thomas on the other hand, still struggling.  Shot +7 at The Players, MDF, Only top 20 finish since Hawaii was at the Mexio Championship.  Also, Justin Thomas 2 straight missed cuts at this tournament.  We’ve been fading Justin Thomas a lot this year…I’m going to keep fading.


    tee times

    Patrick Reed-8:04  Justin Thomas-8:26


    Kevin Tway ov Ryan Moore


    Kevin Tway keeps winning bets for us, so I’m going to keep riding him.  Not a huge play, but I love the momentum Kevin Tway has compared to Ryan Moore.  3rd, 3rd, 5th, 20th, 18th his last 5 tournaments for Tway.  Ryan Moore finished 18th at the Valero, and then has kind of fallen off.  53rd, missed cut, 67th his last 3 tournaments.  At the Byron Nelson and Dean & Deluca combined, Ryan Moore shot +14…Tway shot -6.  The reason I’m not making this a big play is because Tway hasn’t played here before, and Moore has played here 11 times.  Decent history here, but only 48th place last year.


    tee times

    Kevin Tway-8:59  Moore-8:04






    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Did a ton of research on these plays today.  Really hope the hard work pays off.  Went in to a lot of depth on the podcast today...would really appreciate the listen and subscribe.

    I am playing these both first round and full tourney.  I posted the tee times of the golfers this week because last week it was a big deal with the weather.  This week doesn't seem to be a big deal, but here they are in case anyone is wondering.

    Beyong Hun An ov Kevin chappell


    I get the golfer with momentum and the better finish here last year.  Hun An finished 11th at this tournament last year, and coming into the tournament, he’s got two top 10 finishes and a 24th.  Chappell coming off a 35th at the Players, and before that he won at the Valero, and had a 7th at the Masters, but before that nothing inside the top 40.  So I went back and looked at his previous years, and in 2016 he played great at the Valero (4th place), 2nd at The Players…48th at the Memorial.  2015 49th at The Memorial…2014 Missed Cut at The Memorial.  So I just think he doesn’t translate too well to this course despite playing good at a few tournaments recently.


    tee times

    Hun an- 7:30  Chappell-8:48


    Matt Kuchar ov Rickie Fowler


    This is Fowlers last tournament before the US Open, so I’m sure he wants to play really good here, but the fact is Fowler has been bad at this tournament the last 3 years.  He missed the cut the last 3 years.  In 2014 he wasn’t playing great coming into the Memorial, and he missed the cut.  In 2015 he was coming off a win and a 9th place finish…and he missed the cut.  In 2016 he was coming off a 4th and a missed cut…and he missed the cut at The Memorial.  It just seems like no matter what form Fowler is in, he doesn’t play good here.  This year he missed the cut at the Zurich with his partner, and then shot +7 at The Players and finished 60th.  So he’s not coming in on fire.  Meanwhile, Matt Kuchar in the last 9 tournaments here has 8 top 15 finishes, 6 of those top 10 finishes, 4 of those were top 5 finishes, and one of those was a win.  Last year, 4th place here.  Kuchar is coming off of a 12th, and a 9th place finish so he’s in good form right now.


    tee times

    Kuchar-12:54  Fowler-1:16


    Patrick Reed ov Justin Thomas


    Patrick Reed seems to have broken out of his funk, especially with the putter.  He really struggled in the beginning of the year, and even went on a 3 tournament missed cut streak.  However, since the Zurich he’s got a 12th at the Wells Fargo, a 22nd at The Players, and a 20th at the Byron Nelson.  Justin Thomas on the other hand, still struggling.  Shot +7 at The Players, MDF, Only top 20 finish since Hawaii was at the Mexio Championship.  Also, Justin Thomas 2 straight missed cuts at this tournament.  We’ve been fading Justin Thomas a lot this year…I’m going to keep fading.


    tee times

    Patrick Reed-8:04  Justin Thomas-8:26


    Kevin Tway ov Ryan Moore


    Kevin Tway keeps winning bets for us, so I’m going to keep riding him.  Not a huge play, but I love the momentum Kevin Tway has compared to Ryan Moore.  3rd, 3rd, 5th, 20th, 18th his last 5 tournaments for Tway.  Ryan Moore finished 18th at the Valero, and then has kind of fallen off.  53rd, missed cut, 67th his last 3 tournaments.  At the Byron Nelson and Dean & Deluca combined, Ryan Moore shot +14…Tway shot -6.  The reason I’m not making this a big play is because Tway hasn’t played here before, and Moore has played here 11 times.  Decent history here, but only 48th place last year.


    tee times

    Kevin Tway-8:59  Moore-8:04






     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Joined: Aug, 2011
    Posts: 4739
    Posted: May. 30, 2017 - 10:52 PM ET #2

    Ross Fisher ov Bubba Watson


    How can you not bet against Bubba right now?  Since February, the only tournament he’s finished under par has been the Zurich…where he had a partner.  Last tourney he played in, he Missed the cut bad at the Players, and last year here he played this tournament he finished 65th here, and he was playing a lot better last year coming into the Memorial.  Ross Fisher missed the cut at The Players as well, but still finished ahead of Bubba, and last 3 tourneys on the European tour he’s been in the top 10 including 9th last week at the BMW.  Fisher hasn’t played here, but I’m not too worried about that.


    tee times

    Fisher-7:30  Bubba-8:15


    Smylie Kaufman ov Cameron Smith


    I can’t believe we bet against Kaufman earlier this year, and now I’m excited about betting on him, but the results are pretty obvious.  Cameron Smith and his partner won the Zurich, and since then he’s missed the cut two times in a row by shooting +4 at The Players, and +5 at The Dean and Deluca.  Smylie had a bunch of missed cuts, but has really turned it around recently.  35th at the Byron Nelson, 12th at the players, 5th at the Wells Fargo.  Last year at this tournament, Kaufman finished 20th.  Cameron Smith has played here once and missed the cut.


    tee times

    Smylie- 1:05  Cameron Smith-12:43


    Nick Taylor ov Russell Knox


    Odd play here as I’m going to support Nick Taylor here even though he’s played here once and he missed the cut.  But that was back in 2015, and Nick Taylor wasn’t playing good coming into that tournament.  Lots of missed cuts, and finishes outside the top 15.  He didn’t play here last year, but right around this time of the season he was playing better than the previous year, and this year he’s been really good.  Going back to the Shell Houston Open he hasn’t missed the cut, and in those 6 tournaments, 4 of those finishes were top 10’s.  He struggled a bit last week at the Dean and Deluca but still made the cut.  Now let’s look at Russell Knox, and it’s hard to explain whats happened to him.  Since February, he’s played in 7 PGA tournaments, 5 missed cuts, and a 70th place finish.  Last year he was playing good coming into this tournament, and he still only finished 64th.


    tee times

    Nick Taylor-7:53  Knox-12:43


    Billy Hurley ov Martin Laird


    Martin Laird has started to slip recently, and if you look at the last few years, Martin Laird doesn’t play good at the tournament this time of year.  Lot of missed cuts and finishes outside the top 50.  In 2015, in May he started a run of 4 tournaments with 2 missed cuts and finishes outside the top 40.  In 2016, starting in May he started a run of 4 tournaments with 3 missed cuts and a 65th.  In 2017, here we go…starting in May, already two missed cuts and a 42nd, and last 2 times Laird has played here he’s missed the cut.  Hurley on the other hand hasn’t missed the cut since the Masters, and while hasn’t been lights out, he’s finished ahead of Laird in the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in, and the last time Hurley played here was 2014, and he made the cut and finished 37th.


    tee times

    Laird-12:21  Hurley-1:27


    Emiliano Grillo ov Charl Schwartzel


    Pretty simple play here.  Schwartzel has a wrist issue…Missed cut a couple weeks ago, Withdraw last tourney.  Grillo is playing good.  10 Straight made cuts, an 11th, and 24th the last 2 tournaments, so he’s in good form…finished 11th here last year.


    tee times

    Grillo-1:38  Charl-1:38

    Reply

    Ross Fisher ov Bubba Watson


    How can you not bet against Bubba right now?  Since February, the only tournament he’s finished under par has been the Zurich…where he had a partner.  Last tourney he played in, he Missed the cut bad at the Players, and last year here he played this tournament he finished 65th here, and he was playing a lot better last year coming into the Memorial.  Ross Fisher missed the cut at The Players as well, but still finished ahead of Bubba, and last 3 tourneys on the European tour he’s been in the top 10 including 9th last week at the BMW.  Fisher hasn’t played here, but I’m not too worried about that.


    tee times

    Fisher-7:30  Bubba-8:15


    Smylie Kaufman ov Cameron Smith


    I can’t believe we bet against Kaufman earlier this year, and now I’m excited about betting on him, but the results are pretty obvious.  Cameron Smith and his partner won the Zurich, and since then he’s missed the cut two times in a row by shooting +4 at The Players, and +5 at The Dean and Deluca.  Smylie had a bunch of missed cuts, but has really turned it around recently.  35th at the Byron Nelson, 12th at the players, 5th at the Wells Fargo.  Last year at this tournament, Kaufman finished 20th.  Cameron Smith has played here once and missed the cut.


    tee times

    Smylie- 1:05  Cameron Smith-12:43


    Nick Taylor ov Russell Knox


    Odd play here as I’m going to support Nick Taylor here even though he’s played here once and he missed the cut.  But that was back in 2015, and Nick Taylor wasn’t playing good coming into that tournament.  Lots of missed cuts, and finishes outside the top 15.  He didn’t play here last year, but right around this time of the season he was playing better than the previous year, and this year he’s been really good.  Going back to the Shell Houston Open he hasn’t missed the cut, and in those 6 tournaments, 4 of those finishes were top 10’s.  He struggled a bit last week at the Dean and Deluca but still made the cut.  Now let’s look at Russell Knox, and it’s hard to explain whats happened to him.  Since February, he’s played in 7 PGA tournaments, 5 missed cuts, and a 70th place finish.  Last year he was playing good coming into this tournament, and he still only finished 64th.


    tee times

    Nick Taylor-7:53  Knox-12:43


    Billy Hurley ov Martin Laird


    Martin Laird has started to slip recently, and if you look at the last few years, Martin Laird doesn’t play good at the tournament this time of year.  Lot of missed cuts and finishes outside the top 50.  In 2015, in May he started a run of 4 tournaments with 2 missed cuts and finishes outside the top 40.  In 2016, starting in May he started a run of 4 tournaments with 3 missed cuts and a 65th.  In 2017, here we go…starting in May, already two missed cuts and a 42nd, and last 2 times Laird has played here he’s missed the cut.  Hurley on the other hand hasn’t missed the cut since the Masters, and while hasn’t been lights out, he’s finished ahead of Laird in the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in, and the last time Hurley played here was 2014, and he made the cut and finished 37th.


    tee times

    Laird-12:21  Hurley-1:27


    Emiliano Grillo ov Charl Schwartzel


    Pretty simple play here.  Schwartzel has a wrist issue…Missed cut a couple weeks ago, Withdraw last tourney.  Grillo is playing good.  10 Straight made cuts, an 11th, and 24th the last 2 tournaments, so he’s in good form…finished 11th here last year.


    tee times

    Grillo-1:38  Charl-1:38

     
    PuttForeDough
    PuttForeDough
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    Posted: May. 30, 2017 - 11:19 PM ET #3

    Thanks for the effort. Get um this week. 

    Reply
    Thanks for the effort. Get um this week. 

     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Joined: Aug, 2011
    Posts: 4739
    Posted: May. 30, 2017 - 11:24 PM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by PuttForeDough:

    Thanks for the effort. Get um this week. 


    Thanks man.  Really dug deep with the research this week.

    Going to be honest and say I pu$$ied out of taking Day ov Matsuyama.  Day's last tournament, he looked sharp and back on track.  Wonder if he's recovered from the mental scars of his Mom's situation, and if he's back on track.  I didn't take that bet this week, but I don't blame anyone if they want to support him.  If he gets going, there's going to be a short window of him being a value.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by PuttForeDough:

    Thanks for the effort. Get um this week. 


    Thanks man.  Really dug deep with the research this week.

    Going to be honest and say I pu$$ied out of taking Day ov Matsuyama.  Day's last tournament, he looked sharp and back on track.  Wonder if he's recovered from the mental scars of his Mom's situation, and if he's back on track.  I didn't take that bet this week, but I don't blame anyone if they want to support him.  If he gets going, there's going to be a short window of him being a value.
     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posts: 1595
    Posted: May. 31, 2017 - 8:53 AM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


    Thanks man.  Really dug deep with the research this week.

    Going to be honest and say I pu$$ied out of taking Day ov Matsuyama.  Day's last tournament, he looked sharp and back on track.  Wonder if he's recovered from the mental scars of his Mom's situation, and if he's back on track.  I didn't take that bet this week, but I don't blame anyone if they want to support him.  If he gets going, there's going to be a short window of him being a value.

    Thanks for the effort. Takes time to do the research and the write-up. 
    Love the reasoning and gonna ride your picks. 
    Funny u mention Day because I'm gonna go with a Day this week in an event played in his backyard and seems he may be back on track while Matsuyama not as sharp as earlier this year. 

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


    Thanks man.  Really dug deep with the research this week.

    Going to be honest and say I pu$$ied out of taking Day ov Matsuyama.  Day's last tournament, he looked sharp and back on track.  Wonder if he's recovered from the mental scars of his Mom's situation, and if he's back on track.  I didn't take that bet this week, but I don't blame anyone if they want to support him.  If he gets going, there's going to be a short window of him being a value.

    Thanks for the effort. Takes time to do the research and the write-up. 
    Love the reasoning and gonna ride your picks. 
    Funny u mention Day because I'm gonna go with a Day this week in an event played in his backyard and seems he may be back on track while Matsuyama not as sharp as earlier this year. 

     
    AJLightning
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    Posted: May. 31, 2017 - 9:40 AM ET #6

    Good work buddy!  

    Random thought (more like "Deep Thoughts" by Jack Handey)....

    golf handicapping can be like golf in real life in the sense of over thinking your shots or more commonly know as "paralysis by analysis"

    A lot of the time you can just look at the line and know it's not right. And it get's you thinking "what in the he*l is the bookmaker thinking here!"
    Reply
    Good work buddy!  

    Random thought (more like "Deep Thoughts" by Jack Handey)....

    golf handicapping can be like golf in real life in the sense of over thinking your shots or more commonly know as "paralysis by analysis"

    A lot of the time you can just look at the line and know it's not right. And it get's you thinking "what in the he*l is the bookmaker thinking here!"
     
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: May. 31, 2017 - 12:41 PM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

    Good work buddy!  Random thought (more like "Deep Thoughts" by Jack Handey)....golf handicapping can be like golf in real life in the sense of over thinking your shots or more commonly know as "paralysis by analysis"A lot of the time you can just look at the line and know it's not right. And it get's you thinking "what in the he*l is the bookmaker thinking here!"


    Any play or plays you're referring to?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

    Good work buddy!  Random thought (more like "Deep Thoughts" by Jack Handey)....golf handicapping can be like golf in real life in the sense of over thinking your shots or more commonly know as "paralysis by analysis"A lot of the time you can just look at the line and know it's not right. And it get's you thinking "what in the he*l is the bookmaker thinking here!"


    Any play or plays you're referring to?
     
    AJLightning
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    Posted: May. 31, 2017 - 1:55 PM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:



    Any play or plays you're referring to?

    Love the first two!!  

    Then comes Reed/Thomas....

    All I will say is this week is a second shot track! Proximity is key....IMHO

    Check the stats on those two and Moore/Tway....what do you see?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:



    Any play or plays you're referring to?

    Love the first two!!  

    Then comes Reed/Thomas....

    All I will say is this week is a second shot track! Proximity is key....IMHO

    Check the stats on those two and Moore/Tway....what do you see?
     
    AJLightning
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    Posted: May. 31, 2017 - 2:03 PM ET #9

    It was really this comment that got me thinking:

    Did a ton of research on these plays today

    Basically what I was trying to say was don't over think it. It can be as simple as first glance at the line and it pops right out at you! 

    You've been doing so good man, so if that's what it takes, then keep on doing what you do. But sometimes TOO MUCH research will get you all f'ed up!

    Hope I don't come across as douchy or anything...just think the more minds in here talking is better for all of us!
    Reply
    It was really this comment that got me thinking:

    Did a ton of research on these plays today

    Basically what I was trying to say was don't over think it. It can be as simple as first glance at the line and it pops right out at you! 

    You've been doing so good man, so if that's what it takes, then keep on doing what you do. But sometimes TOO MUCH research will get you all f'ed up!

    Hope I don't come across as douchy or anything...just think the more minds in here talking is better for all of us!
     
    Maddog1987
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    Posted: May. 31, 2017 - 3:05 PM ET #10

    Thanks for the post.  I know you started well last week... hope you end up as well.
    Reply
    Thanks for the post.  I know you started well last week... hope you end up as well.
     
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: May. 31, 2017 - 3:11 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

    It was really this comment that got me thinking:Did a ton of research on these plays todayBasically what I was trying to say was don't over think it. It can be as simple as first glance at the line and it pops right out at you! You've been doing so good man, so if that's what it takes, then keep on doing what you do. But sometimes TOO MUCH research will get you all f'ed up!Hope I don't come across as douchy or anything...just think the more minds in here talking is better for all of us!


    Lol...I don't think you're douchy. Far from it. Always appreciate the comments. I've learned that my research is better than my gut reactions to the lines. So I try and do as much research as I can.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

    It was really this comment that got me thinking:Did a ton of research on these plays todayBasically what I was trying to say was don't over think it. It can be as simple as first glance at the line and it pops right out at you! You've been doing so good man, so if that's what it takes, then keep on doing what you do. But sometimes TOO MUCH research will get you all f'ed up!Hope I don't come across as douchy or anything...just think the more minds in here talking is better for all of us!


    Lol...I don't think you're douchy. Far from it. Always appreciate the comments. I've learned that my research is better than my gut reactions to the lines. So I try and do as much research as I can.
     
    bertski
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    Posted: May. 31, 2017 - 10:46 PM ET #12

    hey   andy checked ur thread    gonna play a couple just for tomorrow

    JB HOLMES   OV BUBBA 

    GRILLO   OV  SCHWARTZEL   

    GOOD LUCK MAN

    Reply

    hey   andy checked ur thread    gonna play a couple just for tomorrow

    JB HOLMES   OV BUBBA 

    GRILLO   OV  SCHWARTZEL   

    GOOD LUCK MAN

     
    AJLightning
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    Posted: Jun. 1, 2017 - 12:56 PM ET #13

    Moore   

    I'm shocked at his play today
    Reply
    Moore   

    I'm shocked at his play today
     
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jun. 1, 2017 - 5:37 PM ET #14

    How about Day?
    Wow is he awful or what?
    Reply
    How about Day?
    Wow is he awful or what?
     
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Jun. 1, 2017 - 11:30 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

    Moore   

    I'm shocked at his play today

    Shocked by a lot of the play today we saw from guys...lol
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

    Moore   

    I'm shocked at his play today

    Shocked by a lot of the play today we saw from guys...lol
     
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Jun. 2, 2017 - 11:30 PM ET #16

    Scott ov Koepka 3rd round
    Reply
    Scott ov Koepka 3rd round
     
     
    bertski
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    Posted: Jun. 3, 2017 - 12:42 PM ET #17

    ANDY   I tailed ya  with  Scott   also  playing   HU NA  over  PHIL  -105    and  KUCHAR  OV KISNER   -140 


    Reply

    ANDY   I tailed ya  with  Scott   also  playing   HU NA  over  PHIL  -105    and  KUCHAR  OV KISNER   -140 


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