The Genesis

Love Riviera, one early one 

Robert Macintyre (45-1) 0.25u

Did not have any intentions of betting Finau but this is an absurd number on him at a really great course fit. Probly throwing money away but can’t pass up the 225-1

Tony Finau (225-1) 0.08u

Hideki Matsuyama (24-1) 0.35u

Riviera should be a lot of fun this week, we missed out on this golf course last year due to the fires out in California. Just going to give the cliff notes here as i dont have a lot of time. 

Riviera is a relatively long golf course that should play longer than perceived this week due to this area getting a lot rain in the days leading up to the tournament. There were huge downpours of rain there today. Very narrow fairways that are some of the hardest to hit on tour only adds to the edge that can be gained with distance off the tee as these guys will find the rough often and get less roll out. Players that can carry the ball further on a soft golf course will be rewarded with shorter approaches into these tricky green complexes. I'm putting an above average weight on carry distance off the tee in my modeling this week. The majority of approach shots here will come from 150-200 yards, although this place playing softer than usual i think will result in a good amount of shots from 200+ yds as well. Will be looking for consistently high level middle/long iron players. One of the most important keys to success at Riviera is around the green play as these are some of the harder greens to hit on tour resulting in these guys needing to scramble around here a lot. Add in the fact that these green complexes are extremely challenging and will cause players to miss 5-10 footers in bunches; Players that are able to chip it into gimme range from around the green will have a huge edge. Course history tends to hold a lot of weight here as well as players that play well here tend to do so year after year at a higher rate than most pga tour courses. These are really the primary things im looking at this week; distance off the tee, middle/long iron specialists, elite around the green players, and players that have shown they can play well at Riviera. Looking forward to a fun week 

Forgot to add, there are is a healthy amount of tricky greenside bunkering as well, sand saves is another thing im looking at and only adds to the importance of around the green play at this venue. Players that play well in cali, putt well on poa greens, and have good history on these longer, more difficult set ups that place an emphasis on your short game are all added bonuses when trying to narrow down some guys. 

Thanks for the ride up. I haven’t looked at anything yet, but I’m sure you’re more in debt than I but let me check a little bit and see if anybody you pick rings a bell or if you think you know who I should take like I say it is a one and done basically took Justin Rose last week. sorry talking into the microphone. might put $10 on FINAU lol

Help me with the winning score. The last two years have been -17 the year before that was -19 and 2021 was -12. Was it raining in the last two years or good weather? You said it’s been raining a lot, so should we go lower than -17 I’ve been looking at the last four years still trying to look at things thanks 

So far, im on Sugar Shayne. Ill see who else I like tomorrow 

Harris English (40-1) 0.25u

Top 10 (ties included):

Harris English (+250) 0.5u

Robert Macintyre (+300) 0.5u

I would lean toward final score landing around -19 or -20. These greens should be very soft which will help give these guys a lot of birdie looks. I think it’ll play a little easier than usual 

Sounds like wet conditions. This may favor the longer hitters? Cam young/Rory come to mind having good weeks...

Good luck this week Rollz 

Absolutely should favor the longer guys, I think it’ll result in a bump to better approach players as well and decrease the importance of around the green play a little as these greens should be ultra soft and easier to hit this year. Both those guys make a lot of sense. If I could redo it I would maybe just bet Rory and tighten up the card. This should play right into his hands 

Thanks brotha GL!

From my new blog (https://betstories.app/)

2026 Genesis (Riviera CC)
We are still early in the year with a big Signature Event here. This course has consistent results, with similar players winning each year. It’s a 72 entry event, with a cut for top 50 players plus ties.

We are expecting a lot of rain leading up to the event, making scores go low and boosting the results of long hitters.

While putting is difficult on these greens, it has been an important stat for gaining shots. That is, players who don’t putt terribly have an edge. This also helps players who avoid putting by missing the green and chipping it close. Of course, great players who get the ball near the hole will have a greater edge, but that is a harder way to win on the complex greens.

Course history is a great start since the course is so consistent. Who does well here? Over the last 5 years, the following players have at least 1 Top 15, asterix indicates 2, or at least 1 top 5 placement:

History: Aberg, McNealy*, Rodgers, Cantlay*, Fleetwood*, Finau*, McCarthy, Bhatia, N Taylor, Scheffler, Matsuyama, Schauffele, English, Hoge, J Day, Burns*, Poston, Cole, Homa*, McIlroy, MacIntyre, C Smith, Morikawa, Clark, M Fitzpatrick, Hovland*, CYoung*

Form is always important. Who is playing well this year?

Form: McNealy, Finau, Bhatia, Scheffler, Hoge, Morikawa, McNealy, P Coody

Course fit is very important. This course is good for players who hit it long, have fast club speed, and get high birdies or better percentage. Being a good long distance putter or good chipper helps on the complex greens. Approaches from 150-200 are most important. The story could be P Coody continues monster year. Or Morikawa goes back to back. Or Hoge continues great year. Or Bhatia keeps up food work. Or Finau continues his pace.

Player Fit: Scheffler, Bhatia, Burns, C Young, Hovland, Finau, M Fitzpatrick, A Scott, Homa, McNealy, Clark, Matsuyama, and Rodgers are the top fits.

Odds are key. It doesn’t matter how good a player is if the odds aren’t good. There will be random bounces. Random conditions. We need good odds.

Odds: Over 100-1: Potgeiter, T Kim, Echavarria, Kevin Yu, Hoge, Valimaki, Hoey, McCarthy, Conners, Finau, Rodgers, Theegala.

Over 50-1: A Scott, J Day, Bhatia, P Coody, Lowry, Homa, Kitayama, N Taylor, Hall, Noren, Posten, Clark, Hisatsune

Over 25-1: Cantlay, Gotterup, Morikawa, C Young, Henley, SW Kim, Burns, M Fitzpatrick, Aberg, McNealy, Straka, Hovland

Given the history, form, stats, and odds, What are the stories for this tournament? Almost every player has a chance. Almost all of these guys have either played well here (history), are in good form (recency), or are a good course fit (fit). But who either has good odds to justify risk, or fits 2 or all 3 areas? Who has a story?

Bet Stories: First, let’s look at the long shots. Potgeiter is a great driver. He probably won’t win because of history, but 310-1 beats the odds. Rememember when he beat the field by like 5 strokes was it last year or 2 years ago in a tournament where going long matters? If there is a tournament where being long is key, he is your guy. Echavarria is a good putter at 230-1, Kevin Yu is good off the tee at 230-1, Hoge is having a killer year at 220-1. Valimaki is good off the tee at 210-1. Hoey is a great driver at 155-1. McCarthy is a great putter and decent driver at 135-1. Conners is good in both categories at 130-1. Finau did great last week at 120-1 and good fit, Rodgers is a good fit at 115-1. So, any of these players you would be justified in betting. The odds say it is okay. But because none of them have history, we are unlikely to win. These are players to put $5-$10 if you like any of them, and then add to your position if they enter t20, t10, and t5 as they have a shot to win. These are great players to bet for Round 1 Leader (or any round) or top 20s, especially if distance is an important metric day 1.

Second, let’s look at history. Who has played well here and has good fit or good value? McNealy, Cantlay, Fleetwood, Finau, Burns, Hovland, C Young. Well, Finau just had a great week and is 115-1. Burns and Hovland are both 41-1, better odds than the other guys. The story is these guys have good history and fit and the best odds in the field.

Who truly has great fit? Who has good club speed, distance, gets lots of birdies, and decent putting/chipping? And odds don’t suck? You have Cantlay, C Young, M Fitzpatrick, Aberg, Straka, Bhatia, A Scott, Homa, Clark, Matsuyama, and Rodgers. Well, grab Rodgers at 115-1. Bhatia did great last week and he is 65-1. Straka is 49-1. A Scott is 53-1. M Fitzpatrick is 35-1. Aberg 41-1. The story could be Straka picks up where he left off last year. Or M Fitzpatrick gets going.

Burns – 35-1. Burns was winning last year at a tournament and fell apart on day 4 during bad weather. He has killer history here. He is a birdie machine. Top 30 club speed. He will get a win in ’26 or ’27. Not a great price outright, but good for a Top 10 parlay. I put $50 on him because if he has a good day 1, his price won’t get better.

Hovland – 42-1. Hovland was a points champion 2 years ago. He had wins and top placements. A great player. He has good history here and is a birdie machine.

C Young – 30 -1. The odds are low for an outright, but here is a t10 parlay option. He has good history, gets birdies, top club head speed, and long distance. Besides form, he is a great bet.

Finau – 115 – 1. The number can’t be ignored. He played great last week (especially putting). History. Club head speed.

Homa – 74 – 1. The best odds in the field for his history.

Clark – 88 – 1. The very best odds in the field given balance. He has a top 15 placement in last 5 years. He has club head speed. He has driving distance. He can putt long distance great (he set a course record at Pebble Beach last year due to putting).

P Coody – 67-1. He has had an extraordinary year and is a great driver. No history though. Another guy to put a few bucks on and add to if he gets to the top of the board. He can win this if happens to be a year that history matters less. Need to have at least one guy on your cared like this.

Aberg – 41 – 1. Aberg has been quiet lately. However, he has history and gets birdies and good club speed.

Rodgers – 115 – 1. He has history and good distance. Not a bad number.

What’s the story? Most likely? Course is soft, being long helps this year. Distance is key. Proximity is more important. History matters in understanding the greens and approaches. So, Hovland, Burns, C Young should do well. Of course Matsuyama, Scheffler, Cantlay, Fleetwood should be in the mix. But maybe a guy with better odds like Finau, Clark, Hovland win. More likely a McNealy or Burns though.

The story could be, though less likely, distance trumps all this year. Potgeiter, Aberg, Rodgers, P Coody have big weeks.

I like the strategy of parlaying 3 guys with good history in top 10. Mix up 3 of Hovland, Burns, Young, Fleetwood, Matsuyama, Cantlay, Hovland, McNealy, and Burns.

I also like betting Finau, Rodgers, P Coody, Homa, Clark at their decent odds.

I put some r1 leader bets on Potgeiter, P Coody, Valimaki, Hoey, Burns, McNealy as well.

Watch out: Hisatsune (playing great) 94-1.

If my card is doing good, I hope to put BIG BIG bets on Fleetwood, Cantlay, Schauffele, C Young, Matsuyama, Hovland, and Burns.

My favorite story? The great guys play great and we nail some top 10 parlays.

What do you think the story will be? Who do you like for top 10 parlays?

Couple positional adds..

Top 10 (ties included):

Tommy Fleetwood (+170) 0.5u

Hideki Matsuyama (+170) 0.5u

Lottery tickets:

Yu, rodgers t10 and Bhatia, aberg t5: $10 for $50k

Potgeiter t10, finau and p Coody t5 $10 for $20k

Scott mcnealy homa t10, c young, cantlay, schauffelr t5, $20 for $200k.

These likely won't hit.. but I believe it's the strategy this week. Outright odds suck. But because of course consistency, these t10 parlays are way to go if you can make a few good ones. Pick reasonable guys and put $100 on it perhaps. 

Full card, gl all

Outrights:

Hideki Matsuyama (24-1) 0.35u

Matt Fitzpatrick (37-1) 0.20u

Harris English (40-1) 0.25u

Robert Macintyre (45-1) 0.25u

Tony Finau (225-1) 0.08u

Top 10 (ties included):

Tommy Fleetwood (+170) 0.5u

Hideki Matsuyama (+170) 0.5u

Matt Fitzpatrick (+250) 0.5u

Harris English (+250) 0.5u

Robert Macintyre (+300) 0.5u

Mav McNealy (+300) 0.5u

I have rai as round leader for $530. They are offering $350 to cash out. Thoughts? Hedge. cash. or ride?

I picked him up this morning at +10500 for $5 when they said it was clean and place. He is the most accurate driver in both 24 and 25, though he is not long.

I would think you’d be safe but it should be very soft and easy for those guys when they resume round 1. If it were me I’d just let it ride though there’s a reason the book is offering a cash out. GL!

I let it ride (it was a $5 bet, come on). Almost lost it actually, but got the $180 split. 

Bet:

Fleetwood Top 5 (he is smiling a lot)

P Coody T 10 (he is in form, good fit for course)

Min Woo Lee T5 . Most scary leg. But he is the one who might hit it 2' from the hole on 10. Or save it if he doesn't. I want him if we are going to a playoff.

Also, I bet Scheffler for the first time in 3 years.

$25 sees $2000 if he wins.