We continue to roll along through major season this week with the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. Quail is a golf course we see on a yearly basis at the Wells Fargo and also held a major in 2017. This is a much different golf course agronomically though compared to 2017 and prior as It has been overseeded and went through some renovations. It’s a brutally long track measuring out at 7,626 yards which gives an edge to bombers and elite long iron play. This length along with thicker rough this year, firm and fast undulating green surfaces, short grass areas around the green and a healthy amount of water hazards will present a challenge for all of these guys. If you aren’t long off the tee or solid on approach with the long irons it’ll be difficult to separate on this golf course.
The rough at quail hollow is generally very manageable and rewards a bombs away approach off the tee. I think this year could be a little different as they have decided to grow this rough out almost a full inch longer than normal. By the time the weekend rolls around it should be a chore to be playing out of the thick stuff as it grows to 4 in+. While I still prefer longer players off the tee, the thicker this rough gets the more it favors players that can hit fairways and spike with the long irons in my opinion. Just look at bay hill a few weeks back for instance, another brutally long golf course with thick rough where Russell Henley took over by staying out of the rough and spiking with the long irons/putter. I’m taking more of a total driving approach this week as I want players who have the length to contend, but also tend to hit fairways. This is not to say length is not a huge advantage at this golf course because it is, and there are multiple holes where longer players can take very advantageous angles off the tee. But I believe keeping it in the fairways is a strategy that can work this week as long as these shorter players have long iron upside. Distance off the tee is still preferred, but I’m not crossing shorter players off that have the upside elsewhere in their games.
Approach play will as usual be a big factor towards success. Any golf course that is this heavy on long irons will create an avenue for separation on approach as there are only a handful of players who consistently flash upside with long irons. Players will have a ton of shots from 175+ yards into firm green surfaces which is a recipe for many missed greens on approach. I will be looking for players who are in form on approach and are good long-term long iron players.
Around the green and putting is another important aspect for success at Quail Hollow. As these greens are difficult to hit and this not being a birdie fest due to it being a difficult set up, we’ll see a bit of an uptick in the importance of around the green play. With tight, short grass areas around the green brings increased difficulty in this aspect as well. I prefer players that are serviceable around the green. More importantly, putting has consistently been a great way to separate on this golf course. The majority of winners at this venue do so by spiking with the putter more than any other aspect. These are difficult greens to negotiate as they typically play very firm and fast with undulations, ranking as one of the most difficult courses on tour to gain strokes with the putter. These are also very large green surfaces with typically challenging pin locations which will also have me looking into 3 putt avoidance. Lag putting will certainly come into play this week as guys will end up with a ton of 30+ ft putts.
Continued…
To wrap up, in a perfect world I want good total drivers of the ball who are both long and accurate, great long iron approach players, and players who have a hot putter or have flashed putting upside on firm and fast undulating greens. I’ll also be looking at comp courses such as Augusta National. Congaree, Oak Hill, and Bay Hill. All very long golf courses that demand quality drivers of the ball and positive long iron play, similar to what we’ll see this week. Good history at Quail Hollow is also a positive as this venue is pretty sticky in terms of course history. I’ll be adding plays in here throughout the week 
Howdy Rollz, I did my homework last night. I think I read the same post you did from Edoardo Molinari saying long hitters will be favored, and then 200 yard accuracy, and sand saves were the big three key stats. So I ran stats on: driving distance, driving accuracy, approaches from 200-225, sand saves, scrambling, and then also factored in folks who have been hot in 2025 and folks who have been hot lately.
That led me to generate a list of:
Big favorites I cannot ignore, score well there and score well in all the stats too: Schauffle 20-1, McIlroy 4.5-1, Bryson 9-1 (although not many great stats on him due to LIV, and he's not the best short game player)
Guys who've done well at that specific course over the years, and check at least 3-4 boxes on those stats: Denny McCarthy 175-1, Corey Conners 80-1, Sungjae Im 80-1, Byeong Hun An 150-1, Wyndham Clark 100-1.
Guys who did really well in the right stat categories: Min Woo Lee 80-1, Sepp Straka 50-1, Shane Lowry 50-1, Hideki Matsuyama 45-1, Collin Morikawa 22-1.
Honestly, I'd be a little surprised if Byeong Hun An doesn't finish in the Top 10. Another interesting stat is that the guys who are leading in driving distance also are not as accurate on their drives or their 200 yard shot, so it fits the old video game stereotype of the farther you drive it the less accurate you are.
I normally don't like betting Rory or Bryson as their odds are cost-prohibitive, but here their advantages are difficult to ignore.
Lastly, I should note that in years past Schauffle has been consistently Top 5 in 200-yard accuracy. It's what led me to bet him last year.
@Sidehatch
Hey buddy, I did not read that article actually but it will be a very popular take this week. It’s hard not to like those guys at the top and I don’t think betting the “Without scheffler, Rory, Dechambeau” market is a bad strategy this week. Although im not sure if I’ll go that route.
I’m totally with you on byeong hun an, his driver allows him to do things here that most others can’t. I like the majority of these names you mention to play well this week with the exception of maybe lowry and straka. I had Min Woo, Conners, and Reed in consideration as bigger longshots that I think could win this event.
Thanks for stopping by with some of your research my man, love it! 
I hear you on Straka and Lowry. My rule is it’s hard to win a tournament at all, much less be in it two weeks in a row! That being said, Lowry and Straka have been on the radar for other reasons in 2025, so I didn’t want to exclude them. That being said, neither are big driver distance guys so they are at a disadvantage.
I am not anti-Scheffler, but his odds are generally cost-prohibitive. Usually if I take any big name, I’ll take 1 big name at most and skip the rest. This week I added McIlroy and Decheambeau to the list solely to control damages in case they win.
Thanks for your posts and your insights, they are genuinely appreciated!
Fwiw, Molinari’s post is on Golf Digest, but you won’t be surprised based on what you already know. Here’s the link (hope it works)
https://www.golfdigest.com/story/players-2025-3-shots-you-need-to-win-the-players-championship-stats-tpc-sawgrass?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=golfdigest&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR5Ae6wKRRq8pb20jDDJRi--VmLNrJPY_NaXYHBGrXos-DwRySJgSDreDjjskQ_aem_70MmJNzx1tSgXqPV1rkD0Q#
Couple things: The Lead After Round 1 and Win Odds on DK are great.
Straka or Lowry 450 -1 (lowry ranks #24 r1, straka in 60s)
Henley 500 - 1 (Henley ranks #11 in round 1 scoring average)
JT - 150 -1
I like these because if these guys aren't in first your other bets are live, and if he is in first, you are hedged.
Outright - Big
Cauley 200-1
Mitchell 130-1
Olesen 250-1
Hodges 400 -1
No one has to ever beg me to bet Hovland! Clearly my most profitable player in golf, can't believe you led with him...
Hidecki is a good play also. Had a bad round Sunday, if memory serves me correctly, I remember him doing the same thing before a win the next week.
He was practicing in a monsoon so you know he's into it.
Outright card is done, will sprinkle in more positionals today. Here’s everything in as of now
Outrights:
Ludvig Aberg (24-1)
Victor Hovland (45-1)
Hideki Matsuyama (45-1)
Tyrell Hatton (45-1)
Min Woo Lee (90-1)
Top 20 (ties included):
Joaquin Niemann (+130)
Tyrell Hatton (+160)
Corey Conners (+200)
Min Woo Lee (+250)
I think Cauley is a good look and will have him in Dfs. Henley also is getting slept on this week, he won on a relatively similar course at bay hill not long ago.
Made some uncomfortable clicks in the outright market this week with Aberg and hovland not playing to their standards. Just think their skill set gives them a ton of upside on this golf course. Last time I took Aberg with bad form he ended up winning at Torrey pines, another long and difficult golf course. Despite their form I at least know they both have the nuts to win a big event on a difficult set up
He’s finished top 20 at the masters and multiple top 30’s in majors. I think it’s pretty clear that he’s a different player at this point in his career though. Just think this is a perfect golf course for him, if he can’t do it here then maybe it is a mental thing in big events but I’m willing to pay to find out on a course that values all of his strengths
I certainly don’t hate it, he’s striping the irons as well as he ever as. Not sure if I’ll get there but he does make some sense here
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