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McIlroy not to win Irish Open

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Hey guys,

I am reading this forum for quiet a long time now but didn't participate so far. I like the fact, that there are some good punters here and good quality in the golf picks.

I am in the betting business for quiet a long time now and would say that I have a fair knowledge of golf.

However, there is one question, which I hope can be answered from one of you guys.

I want to bet against McIlroy at the Irish this week either in the Winner market or in the Top5 market. The odds at bet fair.com are 6.5 for a LAY in the winning market and 2.6 for a LAY in the Top5 market.

I now want to know which of the two odds is better or has more value in it. Intuitive, I would say that the LAY in the winning market is the better bet, because of the following reason. Another bookie offers 1/4 odds for places 1-6 and has a winning odd of 6.0 for McIlroy. I assume, this would be equal to an odd of 1.5 for the places 1-6. Transferring this odd to Betfair, I would probably get a LAY odd of 1.8 for the first six places. Compared to the LAY odd of 2.6 in the current Top5 market, this would definitely be the better options and the LAY Top5 pick doesn't look good any longer. 

Hence, I would probably LAY McIlroy in the winning market for about 6.5, which is about 1.18 for "McIlroy not winning the Irish".

My question now is, if someone of you can explain me how to compare the odds of the different markets best. I am not asking for personal opinions on the pick, but only for the mathematical comparison between two markets.

As I am not a native speaker, I hope that you can understand my question and can hopefully give me an answer.

Thanks in advance!
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
I will do my best here and I have a buddy that ran "Proper" books on betfair for golf netting a bunch of $$$$$.  The way I understand it is u are offering someone else 6.5-1 on him winning and 2.6-1 on him top five. I am never a believer in big chalk and have done no capping for the Irish open. In this situation you may wanna offer a 6.3-1 on a winner and 2.3 on a top 5 and split your situation up. It also depends on your bankroll. A larger bankroll can lay 6.5 whil a smaller bank roll has no value there because he cannot create a large enough return. Hope this helps
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
as stated above that bet mostly depends on your bankroll!!!!    if u r trying 2 play him not 2win but get a top 5  U R CRAZY!!!   i know this isn't exactly what u wanted but best of luck...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Thanks for the answers so far.

Of course, it is NOT that I want to lay him in the winning market and back him in the Top5. That would be crazy 

My Bankroll is high enough to lay him in the winning market. It is just the question, which pick is better depending on the odds. However, the size of the bankroll has nothing to do with the value.

I don't think that he will finish under the Top5 anyway, but that is not the point, because I just want to know, which odds have the better value and how to compare odds from different markets.

And yes, I offer someone 6.5-1 for winning OR 2.6-1 for Top5. I will probably lay him in the winning market, as those odds place a bigger value for me than the Top5 odds, considering Luke Donald had lay-odds of 2.9 in last weeks Canadian Open  that was also a gift! 

Thanks again, maybe there will be some other answers, how to mathematically compare to different markets.


Cheers.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #5
You didn't pick a good forum to ask this on. Most US gamblers aren't price sensitive, or even know what that means. To answer your question, I have done the maths and they are both VERY similar in terms of price value.
 
Captain
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by fgcteam:

Thanks for the answers so far.

Of course, it is NOT that I want to lay him in the winning market and back him in the Top5. That would be crazy 

My Bankroll is high enough to lay him in the winning market. It is just the question, which pick is better depending on the odds. However, the size of the bankroll has nothing to do with the value.

I don't think that he will finish under the Top5 anyway, but that is not the point, because I just want to know, which odds have the better value and how to compare odds from different markets.

And yes, I offer someone 6.5-1 for winning OR 2.6-1 for Top5. I will probably lay him in the winning market, as those odds place a bigger value for me than the Top5 odds, considering Luke Donald had lay-odds of 2.9 in last weeks Canadian Open  that was also a gift! 

Thanks again, maybe there will be some other answers, how to mathematically compare to different markets.


Cheers.
Value is relative and size of bankroll absolutely matters in value. The value in this case is dependent on your capping . McIlroy's stats come in play to find true value. ITs not just some math question. Its the % of times you think he would finish in top 5 compared to its price and same for winning.
 
Captain
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by Davenz:

You didn't pick a good forum to ask this on. Most US gamblers aren't price sensitive, or even know what that means. To answer your question, I have done the maths and they are both VERY similar in terms of price value.

Oh yeah didn't know that,we are too stupid over here I guess to understand value

 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Davenz:

You didn't pick a good forum to ask this on. Most US gamblers aren't price sensitive, or even know what that means. To answer your question, I have done the maths and they are both VERY similar in terms of price value.
    dumbass
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Davenz:

You didn't pick a good forum to ask this on. Most US gamblers aren't price sensitive, or even know what that means. To answer your question, I have done the maths and they are both VERY similar in terms of price value.

How can't you be price sensitive as a sports better? 
Could you please explain me, how you did the maths to compare the two markets?



Quote Originally Posted by NoWorries21:

Value is relative and size of bankroll absolutely matters in value. The value in this case is dependent on your capping . McIlroy's stats come in play to find true value. ITs not just some math question. Its the % of times you think he would finish in top 5 compared to its price and same for winning.

If you bet flat with for example a risk of 1% of the bankroll per bet, how has value then have to do with the bankroll??? It is understandable that too high lay-odds are problematic on the long term or when you have more than one at one time. But a 6.4 with a risk of 1% or Unit would give you the chance to win about 0.18 Units. So how does this case influence the value? I don't get it...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by NoWorries21:

Value is relative and size of bankroll absolutely matters in value. The value in this case is dependent on your capping . McIlroy's stats come in play to find true value. ITs not just some math question. Its the % of times you think he would finish in top 5 compared to its price and same for winning.


If you bet flat with for example a risk of 1% of the bankroll per bet, how has value then have to do with the bankroll??? It is understandable that too high lay-odds are problematic on the long term or when you have more than one at one time. But a 6.4 with a risk of 1% or Unit would give you the chance to win about 0.18 Units. So how does this case influence the value? I don't get it...
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
My point is that if u.are laying 6.5 $100 has very little return. I see ur point as the value being the same but the risk to me is not worth the return. Now if your bankroll is higher then 6.5k to win 1k may give u enough return to give the play more value in my opinion. But if u wanna make this a math problem with value in laying that much juice betting on golf good luck to u
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
I see your point, too. I understand that the return is not worth the return for you with low risk.

But I used to use Units instead of cash for my picks. And if you lay 6.5 with risk 550 (to win 100) or with risk 55 (10 to win 10), the difference in money is enormous but the risk/return-ratio is still the same.
--> the value is the same, too.

Anyway, I am new to this forum and don't want to attack someone or cater for bad mood.

Let's just talk about Golf, I put my bet on LAY McIlroy @6,4 with Betfair today, as this is the best bet for the week for me.
 
All-Star
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Bluefin:

Oh yeah didn't know that,we are too stupid over here I guess to understand value

Do we need to get SJP in here to help us understand this??

 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

Do we need to get SJP in here to help us understand this??

 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
I also like Richard Finch to finish in the Top10 @5.5-1

Turned second last week in Stockholm with a final round of 69 (3 shots better than the second best round of the day, although we scored a triple bogey on the 17th).
Also a former winner of the Irish Open (2008) and good in shape this year (improved in the OWGR from 299 to 186 so far).
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