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Lets talk outrights. 2nd Round Over

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Posted: #1

Weekend coming the fun is on. The course was much easier today. You never know how will it be tomorrow. 

Spieth +400. He is 2 shots back. And if there was some sort of "luck" measure factor, Id say hes been awfully lucky. I can´t take those odds. 

Rose +550. I liked Rose better yesterday at +400. He had a 4 shot lead and less than 10 chasers 7 strokes or less behind him. Today that lead is 1 and you have bigger and much more sharks lurking behind him. After how hard the course was yesterday, I thought shooting even for the rest of the tourney could have won it for Rose. Today, it is clear that will not happen, especially since more rain is anticipated.

**I believe if you like Rose you should bet him live tomorrow once he gets to the 8th hole**

JT +550. This one has my eye. Its half of the price before the tourney started. JT was flawless today. I think if greens stay receptive, his iron play will take this home

Will Z. Ive watched all tourney and this guy has been  killing it. -4 today and not a single birdie in the par 5s. The putter has looked fine so far... +1100. Seriously, one shot ahead of Spieth, with the game he has been playing, should he pay more than twice as much? 

Besides from that there are two guys that have my attention. Conners and Smith. Smith was having an epic round and some very bad bounces. Hole 15 was brutal. Conners cannot lag putt. Period... But if the greens stay soft, he could get on a heater, and at odds of +8100 it is hard not to take a bite. 

Any takes? 

 
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Posted: #2

Anyone like Dechambeau at +2500?  If he puts up another good round tomorrow like he had today he’ll be in the thick of it.

 
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Posted: #3

@Bonacuse44

 I like to approach in play outrights trying to think what the winning score will be. Right now, I believe -12 will almost certainly win it and -11 very likely to win as well. If I had to set a line on the winning score it would be -10,5. 

Thinking that, Bryson would have to go bonkers on the weekend and shoot 5 under each day. If there is one guy in the field that can do that it is him. But still, I think the chances of him pulling that off are less than 5%. And there is always the risk of JT getting on a heater also and raising that winning score to -14 which is unreacheable for Bryson. 

You are getting a little over twice the odds he had pre-tourney, yet he is 6 shots behind with an awful lot of guys ahead of him. 

 
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Posted: #4

After 2 rounds I’m liking in order to win outright 1. Justin Rose +600 2. Justin Thomas +550, and Tony Finau +1400 as a semi dark horse. 

 
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Posted: #5

Brian Harman is worth a shot. Do not know the price although he is the only player to have shot under 70 in the 1st 2 rounds.

 
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Posted: #6

after RD3 if anyone can beat Matsuyama I’d say Zalatoris might be the only one

connors played very well too but his putter is suspect, especially lag putts which you point out

 

Matsuyama goes on tears that most guys cannot do.  He came out after the rain delay on fire after doing nothing early round.  He was in the “zone” and making putts which he usually doesn’t. I don’t Expect much out of him today. 

good luck

 
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Posted: #7

Speith or Rose gentleman..

 
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Posted: #8

Rose was awful rd3 and nothing Rd2 

caught lightning in a bottle rd1

even in his post Rd1 interview he said he hadn’t been playing well and didn’t know what to expect

rd2&3 weren’t good

 

i give Rose ZERO chance

 

 

 
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Posted: #9

@sacker17

 True, thats living in the past, what happened rd 1..?

 

clover

 
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Posted: #10

Sorry guys, I was not able to log in after. But thank you for your responses. Sack nailed it with his post. 

On to Heritage

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