John Deere and Scottish Open picks

Jamie Lovemark ov Zach Johnson

Classic case of who do you like more…the golfer with better recent form, or the golfer with better course history…I’ll take the golfer with better recent form, and that’s Jamie Lovemark.  The last three tournaments they’ve played in together, Zach hasn’t beat Lovemark in any of them head to head.  Zach has one top 25 finish in his last 11 tournaments, and 3 missed cuts in that span.  Lovemark 4 top 25 finishes in his last 11 tournaments.  Zach has really good course history here.  5 top 3 finishes in a row from 2011-2015, but last year he finished 34th, and so did Lovemark.  So I went back and looked at Zachs form coming into the tournaments.  In 2015, he was coming off of several top 5 finishes into this tournament.  2014, only two missed cuts the entire year before this tournament, 2013 he was playing good as well.  2017 Zach isn’t the Zach of old, his game is fading, Lovemark’s is on the upswing…I’ll take Lovemark at +120 in this matchup as the big underdog.

Charles Howell ov Ryan Moore

Ryan Moore the last 4 tournaments he’s played in, The Players, Byron Nelson, Dean & Deluca, and The Memorial is a total of +26.  He was playing really good before that, but he’s been terrible recently.  He won here last year, but he was coming off of made cuts in the US Open, The British, and a 17th at the PGA Championship, so he was playing good.  Howell has no missed cuts this year, has looked solid since he came back, and I’m expecting him to be near the top of the leaderboard in a weak field.

Ben Martin ov Bubba Watson

Betting against Bubba has been a cash cow this season, and I see no reason to get away from it this week.  I go over these stats with Bubba every week, but since I’m betting real money against him I’ll go over them again.  Bubba actually made the cut last week, and still finished 70th.  He has 2 PGA tourneys in 2017 that he’s finished under par, only one since January.  Ben Martin has been playing really solid lately, 7 straight made cuts, last week he finished ahead of Bubba by 7 shots.  Bubba hasn’t played here in 7 years, and when he did he missed the cut.

Michael Kim ov Maverick McNealy

Michael Kim is a professional golfer.  He finished 29th last week, and 35th the week before.  He has one missed cut in the last 8 tournaments.  Maverick McNealy just graduated from college.  Two months ago he was beating other college guys.  He somehow got exemptions to the US and British Opens by winning the McCormack Medal.  In the US Open, he missed the cut, Michael Kim made the cut here last year, so I’ll take the professional golfer over the college golfer this week.  

Bovada

Danny Lee ov Kevin Kisner

Kevin Kisner has a 58th, and a MC the last couple tournaments, and hasn’t been very sharp.  Danny Lee has 3 straight top 25 finishes, and two top 10 finishes in the last 3.  In fact he’s got 4 top 10 finishes in the last 7 tournaments, and no missed cuts in that time.  Both have spotty course history here, so I’ll take the consistent golfer in this matchup.

Kevin Streelman ov Ryan Moore

Small play

This is a small play because Ryan Moore has a great record at this tournament, and Streelman doesn’t, but Moore has been bad recently.  Two missed cuts and two finishes outside the top 55 the last 4 tournaments.  Streelman has been consistently inside the top 30, and top 20 the last 5 tournaments, so I can’t make this a big play, but I am going to play it small.

Scottish Open plays

Fowler ov McIlroy

Fowler won this tourney in 2015, 8th the year before…McIlroy doesn’t play this tourney often, hasn’t played it since 2014 where he finished 14th, no top 10 finishes here ever, and McIlroy is really struggling.  Missed the cut at the Irish Open last week, Missed the cut at the the US Open, 17th at the Travelers, but that was because of a fantastic last round.  He’s got the lingering injury, he’s changed equipment, just got married…a lot going on that seems to be affecting his game.  Fowler has been on fire, 3 top 5 finishes in the last 4 tournaments.

Stenson ov McIlroy

We went over McIlroy above, let’s go over Stenson.  For whatever reason, Stenson has been really good in the European tourneys, and not the PGA tourneys.  In his 5 european tourneys, he has 4 top 10 finishes.  In the US he has 4 missed cuts in the last 5 tournaments.  I don’t know if you knew this or not KJ, but the Scottish Open is a European tournament.  Guess what…Stenson is the underdog.  He’s plus money!!!

Hao-Tong Li ov Graeme McDowell

Hal-Tong Li finished 36th last week at the Irish Open, 7th at the France Open, made the cut at the US Open, 26th and the Nordea Masters, and 30th at the BMW PGA Championship.  On this podcast we’ve used McDowell a bunch in draftkings and we’ve bet on him a lot, but look at what’s happened to him recently.  Missed Cut at the US Open, Missed cut at the France Open, Missed cut at the Irish Open.