Irish Open

July 6th thru 9th @ Portstewart Golf Club, County Londonderry, Northern Ireland

favorites Rory McIlroy @ 6-1, Hideki Matsuyama @ 10-1, Jon Rahm and Justin Rose @ 12-1 with Tommy Fleetwood @ 15-1

chancing  these "to win" plays this week. will have tourney match plays later when released

Tommy Fleetwood @ 15-1. Fleetwood arguably THE hottest golfer right now. WON Open de France last week [-12] 6th BMW International the week before [-13] and 4th US Open [-11] the week before that. also WON @ Abu Dhabi [-17] 2nd WGC-Mexico [-13] 2nd Shenzhen [-16] (playoff) and 3rd Hong Kong [-11] early season. he DOES however have FIVE missed cuts in 15 tourneys. in a typical "Tommy Tourney" he is either fighting for the lead OR "blows up"

Peter Uihlein @ 40-1. the American kid took 2nd last week @ Le Golf National [-11] and been "wicked close" a number of times this season with 5th @ Puerto Rico [-17] 4th @ Tshwane [-14] 5th @ Dubai [-12] and 7th @ South Africa [-13]. I thought last week might finally be his "break thru" BUT he got "aced" by Fleetwood

Dylan Frittelli @ 60-1 WON Lyoness [-12] but CUT last week in France. also 2nd @ China Open [-17] (playoff) and 5th @ Shenzhen [-14] earlier in the season. the kid is long AND straight, am VERY surprised he did NOT play Le Golf National well

Alex Levy @ 60-1 WON China Open [-17] (playoff) was "low Frenchman" after 1st two rounds last week BUT weekend [+3] and [+4] rounds ended that.

Alex Bjork @ 60-1 tied 3rd @ France [-8]. a very steady striker he has only missed 3 cuts this season and could be close to a "break thru"

Renato Paratore @ 80-1 WON Nordea Masters [-11] and followed up with  tied for 6th @ BMW International [-13] BUT missed cut last week in France

Brandon Stone @ 100-1 WON @ Leopard Creek [-22] with tied 7th Dubai  [-11] and tied 4th @ Joburg [-13] early season. missed cut last week in France

Graeme Storm @ 125-1 WON South Africa Open [-18] and tied 6th BMW PGA [-17] "Stormy" was "in range" first two round last week in France BUT [+3] and [+4] weekend rounds drowned him. worth a shot for the price

Dean Burmester @ 125-1 WON Tshwane Open [-18] tied 9th BMW PGA [-6] tied 7-th Abu Dhabi [-140 and tied 4th South Africa Open [-15] BUT cut last week in France. reference Graeme Storm

Fabrizio Zanotti @ 125-1 WON Maybank [-19] with a course record [-9] final round so he can shoot "wicked low" when he has it going. also tied 5th @ Shenzhen [-14]. see Storm & Burmester

Thomas Detry @ 125-1 tied 2nd @ BMW International [-16] BUT missed cut last week in France along with the Lyoness and Nordea Masters. best other finish @ Leopard Creek with 3rd [-13]. same deal as Storm, Burmester and Zanotti

Anders Romero @ 150-1 WON two weeks ago @ BMW International with a final round [-7] for tourney [-17] to "ace" Detry, Richie Bland and Sergio Garcia by one shot BUT missed the cut @ France last week and @ US Open, FedEx St Jude and Puerto Rico. probably a "one hit wonder" BUT, like the other high odds players, worth a "small sprikle" for the price because "Hey!!! Ya Never Know!!!

kind of surprise that Joburg Open winner Darren Fichardt and recent tied for 2nd @ BMW Internationl Richie Bland are both +550 "field hands" this week @ William-Hill

Irish Open tourney match plays (bet/return)

Tommy Fleetwood -105 over Justin Rose (32/62.45)

Tommy Fleetwood. WON Open de France last week [-12] T-6th BMW International the week before [-13] and 4th US Open [-11] the week before that. also WON @ Abu Dhabi [-17] 2nd WGC-Mexico [-13] 2nd Shenzhen [-16] (playoff) and 3rd Hong Kong [-11] early season. CUT @ Memorial, BMW PGA and Masters

Justin Rose CUT US Open T-12th BMW PGA [-5] T-65th Players [+8]. 2nd Masters [-9] (playoff)

Peter Uihlein -110 over Joost Luiten (33/63)

Peter Uihlein . 2nd last week Open de France [-11]  CUT US Open. T-30th BMW PGA [-1]

Joost Luiten T-32nd Open de France [+1] T-14th BMW International [-9] T-7th Lyoness Open [-7] CUT Nordia Masters T-24th BMW PGA  [-2]

Hideki Matsuyama +120 over Rory McIlroy (30/66)

Hideki Matsuyama. T-2nd US Open [-12] T-45th Memorial [+2] T-22nd Players [even]. T-11th Masters [-1] three WIN and two 2nd early season

Rory McIlroy T-17th Travelers [-6] CUT US Open T-35th Players [+2] T-7th Masters [-3]

Matthew Fitzpatrick even over Shane Lowry (30/60)

"The Matthew Mouse" CUT Open de France [+7] T-35th US Open [+1] T-2nd Nordea Masters [-10] T-12th BMW PGA [-5] CUT Players [+5]

"Fat Baztard" CUT Open de France [+9] T-46th US Open [+3] T-15th Memorial [-5] T-6th BMW PGA [-7] CUT Players [+6]

somewhat surprised NO Alex Noren this week BUT after a US Open CUT and very pedestrian (for him) Open de France last week T-10th [-5] he probably figured take a break and get ready to defend his Scottish Open title next week

I'd be interested to see what the parlay payout would be for:

one reason I chanced "Samurai Golfer" over him this week

also gonna "tack on" Thorbjorn Olesen -120 over Andy Sullivan. Thor has gone tied 3rd with a final round [-6] for tourney [-8] @ Le Golf National. tied 34th [-5] @ Golfclub Munchen the week before and tied 4th @ Nordea Masters [-9] so it looks like he is "heating up". he has won on links courses before @ the Alfred Dunhill Links in 2015 and also won  the Turkish Airlines Open [-20] by three shots over David Horsey and the ChiCom Haotong Li late last season. Andy Sullivan was decent in France BUT shot a final round [+3] for tourney [-4] and tied 13th. he has NOT played much this season and missed the cut in two of his five Euro Tour tourneys

"fade Rory" off to a good start end of 1st round. looks like the "top gun" faves Rahm [-7], Matsuyama [-5] and Rose [-5] came to play this week. my man Tommy not so much [-2] which is right on the projected cut line. NO weather or wind first round so scores were low. leaders American kid Daniel Im and Frenchman Ben Hebert [-8]

right now my 5 match plays 4-1 after the 1st round BUT 3 of the 5 "wicked close" and a LOT of golf to play yet

Portstewart weather:  overnight rain showers Thursday. Friday cloudy with showers early morning. temp 58F wind WNW @ 6 mph. noon time cloudy temp 58F wind WNW @ 8 mph. afternoon & evening  cloudy temp 59F wind WNW @ 8 mph.
weekend forecast about the same so would expect LOW scoring

BEAUTY play, alangrrbs Rory a [+1] CUT vs Rahm [-12] and Matsuyama [-9] "E C Money"

LOT of low scores as predicted including Tommy with a "bounce back" [-5] for tourney [-7] to catch up to Rose [-2] for [-7] going into the weekend.

young Asian-American Daniel Im and Frenchman Ben Hebert both with [-5] rounds for tourney [-13] one ahead of Jon Rahm. with the way the course is playing probably anyone's tourney who is within 5 to 6 shots of the lead

Irish Open weather Saturday: partly cloudy with early wind 17 mph with temp 53F slowing to 12 mph late morning warming to 59F and 7 mph early afternoon warming to 62F. wind 8 mph late afternoon with temp 62F. with the wind and temp looks like advantage later tee times which are the leaders

some WICKED LOW scoring Saturday with a LOT of [-5] / [-6] rounds and two [-8] from Frenchman Julien Quesne and Aussie Scott Hend. both "in range" going into Sunday. unfortunately Justin Rose one of the [-6] and he is two up on Tommy Fleetwood going into the fianl round

Jon Rahm [-5] for tourney [-17] and 2nd round co-leader Daniel Im [-4] for [-17] co-leaders. IF none of my "to win" players can get there I will be pulling for Im. the asian-american kid needs at least a "best three of the top ten" finish to British Open quality

my match plays are a MESS. Tommy down two to Rose, Thor being buried by Sullivan and "The Matthew Mouse" tied with "Fat Baztard". Matsuyama already a winner with the Rory CUT and hopefully Peter Uihlein up four on Joost Luiten holds BUT with the scoring this tourney ANYTHING can happen Sunday. it has just NOT been a north coast of Ireland links course Open without some WIND and WEATHER

Irish Open weather Sunday: FINALLY some "wetter und sturm" forecast for Sunday. rain starting @ 9;00am local time off and on to 1:00pm. then cloudy until 3:00pm with rain starting again until 7:00pm then cloudy until sundown. wind southwest @ 9 mph early increasing to 11mph late morning then dying off to 7 mph in the afternoon. temp at 59F all day 

well I got BEAT UP in Ireland. go 2-3 with Uihlein and Matsuyama (on the Rory CUT) WIN but Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick and Olesen LOSE. freeking Jon Rahm with a record final round [-7] (and that was with a "jacked" 4 foot putt on #18) for tourney [-24] 6 shots ahead of 2nd. his British Open odds just got cut in half from 20-1 to 10-1

gotta be a HUGE disappointment for Danny Im. had "trouble with his putz" all day and finishes [even] for [-17] tied for 4th which blows his British Open hopes

Richie Ramsay and Matthew Southgate both [-18] with Ryan Fox, who gets the [-17] "tie breaker" on his OWGR #140 over Drysdale and Im, they get the "best three of top ten" British Open exemptions. is now two excellent tourney's in a row for the "Kiwi" Fox with 6th @ the Open de France and now tied for 4th here. the guy is "Jon Rahm long" off the tee

ON to SCOTLAND next week. defending champion is Alex Noren with Tyrrell Hatton 2nd. I think that IF Tommy Fleetwood is SMART he will take next week off

turns out that Matthew Southgate already had qualed for the British Open in a regional qualifier @ Royal Cinque Ports so NOW Richie Ramsay [-18], Ryan Fox [-17] (#149 OWGR) and David Drysdale [-17] (#337 OWGR) qualify. Daniel Im [-17] (#542 OWGR) gets "aced out". feel REALLY bad for Im who LEAD or was TIED for the lead the first three rounds. missed putts the last two holes just KILLED his chance