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Greenbriar picks

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Posted: #1

Having some beers, doing research on golf bets that I can't make in the US, I have to go offshore or to a local bookie under the radar...on 4th of July...celebrating our freedom.  Odd feeling...lol.  


Charles Howell ov Bubba Watson


Bubba has good course history here, Charles Howell doesn’t…I don’t care.  All year I keep getting told that “Bubba’s gonna play good this week…he loves this course!!!”  And then he goes out and misses the cut.  I feel like I go over his stats this year every week, but in regular PGA events this year, 7 missed cuts, only one top 25 finish, 3 missed cuts out of his last 4 tourneys.  Charles Howell came out pretty rusty off his break with the rib injury, oh wait he finished second last week.  No missed cuts this year for Howell.


Kevin Streelman ov Russell Henley


Streelman has been really really good starting with the Dean and Deluca.  Four straight top 18 finishes, including the Quicken Loans last week where he finished 7 shots ahead of Henley.  Henley won the Shell Houston Open, and then finished 11th at the Masters, and since then no top 25 finishes, and 3 missed cuts.  I see Streelman on a hot streak, and Henley in a bit of a funk.  


Grayson Murray ov Trey Mullinex


Grayson Murray won a bet last week, and that’s even with him blowing up in the last round with a +11 performance.  Other than that one round he’s been really good.  Hasn’t missed a cut since March, 4 top 35 finishes, so he’s been fairly consistent.  Mullinex has been all over the board, 46th last week, missed cut at the travelers…9th at the US Open…before that 5 missed cuts out of 6 tournaments.  If Murray just shoots even par at the Quicken loans that gives him 5 straight top 35 finishes…I’ll take the consistent golfer in this matchup.



Ricky Barnes ov Jonas Blixt


We cashed a bet with Ricky Barnes last week, let’s do it again.  Barnes 1 missed cut the last 10 tournaments, the last 5 tournaments 4 top 35’s, 3 of those top 25 finishes.  Blixt the last 5 tournaments, two missed cuts and a 62nd…only one top 20 finish, but the big thing for me is that in the last 5 tournaments they’ve played in together, Barnes has finished ahead of Blixt in 4 of those…the other tournament they finished tied together.


Nick Taylor ov Ted Potter Jr. 


Look up Ted Potter’s Pga tournament results this year.  There’s only one PGA tournament he’s even played in this year, the US Open which he missed the cut.  He’s been on the web.com tour where he’s been very hit or miss…last week he missed the cut at the vaunted Nashville Open.  Nick Taylor has at least been playing with PGA tour competition.  Nick Taylor has 8 made cuts in the last 9 tournaments, 29th last week, 4 top 30 finishes in the last 8 tournaments.  Taylor is just in a better class than Potter.



Brandon Hagy ov Camilo Villegas


Pretty bad matchup here…both guys are not fantastic, but in the last 5 tournaments, Villegas has 3 missed cuts, a WD and a 63rd.  Hagy in is last 5 tourneys only has 2 made cuts, but here’s what I like about his play.  Here are the last few tournaments they’ve played in together.  Quicken Loans, Hagy made the cut Villegas didn’t.  FedEx St Jude, Hagy finished 4 strokes ahead of Villegas.  Dean and Deluca Villegas WD after a horrific first round, Wells Fargo Hagy a 9 stroke win over Villegas.  In fact, in 2017 in 11 of the PGA tournaments they’ve played in together, Hagy has finished ahead of Villegas in 9 of those tournaments.


Bovada pick


Keegan Bradley ov Bubba Watson


We went over Bubba above.  Keegan made the cut at the US Open, won the CVS Health Charity Classic, then finished 8th at the Travelers, and 5th at the Quicken Loans.  In fact, of the 7 tournaments they’ve played in together in 2017 Keegan has finished ahead or tied with Bubba in 6 of them.


 
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Posted: #2
looking over people's picks, Bubba seems to be the "fade du jour" yet AGAIN this week. hopefully he continues to struggle

GOOD LUCK, alangrrbs
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

looking over people's picks, Bubba seems to be the "fade du jour" yet AGAIN this week. hopefully he continues to struggle

GOOD LUCK, alangrrbs

I feel like most of the time I've bet against him, I've been the lone person betting against him.  Now that everyone and their mother is on him this week, I probably should re-think...lol
 
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Posted: #4
 Andy I made a bunch of plays off the cuff small before getting down to research and they included
Taylor over Potter,Jr (although this is the 1 and only PGA event Potter has a good history)
Howell over Bubb
Murray over Mullinex 
Like Barnes too since he is playing well and actually has a pretty good history here
Keegan Bradley too has played well here and is playing much better. 

Although Streelman has been hot lately his history here isn't great and Henley did finish 5th here in 2015 at -12.  I lean the other way but I can see your point on Streelman bac he is in good form last 4 events

Hey what is your opinion on Phil this week?  He hasn't done well at this event and he is a favorite against both Lingmerth and Lee both of whom are playing well and have good histories here.  

 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

 Andy I made a bunch of plays off the cuff small before getting down to research and they included
Taylor over Potter,Jr (although this is the 1 and only PGA event Potter has a good history)
Howell over Bubb
Murray over Mullinex 
Like Barnes too since he is playing well and actually has a pretty good history here
Keegan Bradley too has played well here and is playing much better. 

Although Streelman has been hot lately his history here isn't great and Henley did finish 5th here in 2015 at -12.  I lean the other way but I can see your point on Streelman bac he is in good form last 4 events

Hey what is your opinion on Phil this week?  He hasn't done well at this event and he is a favorite against both Lingmerth and Lee both of whom are playing well and have good histories here.  


Course history here is tough, imho.  This tourney got flooded out last year so they had to remake it.  It's similar, but it's not exactly the same as in the past.  Also, I just don't put too much into how someone has played 3,4,5 years ago.  A lot with their game has changed since then...could be better, could be worse.  Last week Fleetwood won a tourney he's never made the cut at.  He's a different golfer this year, improved swing, better body, etc.  it's just my style of handicapping.  I looked hard at those matchups, but couldn't come up with anything definitive.  All those guys playing well...value is in Lee and Lingmerth, but I don't see a clear wager in those matchups.
 
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Posted: #6
Why not throw in a projected tournament winner each week?
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


Course history here is tough, imho.  This tourney got flooded out last year so they had to remake it.  It's similar, but it's not exactly the same as in the past.  Also, I just don't put too much into how someone has played 3,4,5 years ago.  A lot with their game has changed since then...could be better, could be worse.  Last week Fleetwood won a tourney he's never made the cut at.  He's a different golfer this year, improved swing, better body, etc.  it's just my style of handicapping.  I looked hard at those matchups, but couldn't come up with anything definitive.  All those guys playing well...value is in Lee and Lingmerth, but I don't see a clear wager in those matchups.

Thx Andy
Fleetwood IS a different player this year so the MC history last week was a fools play (me!).  But I did get on Fleetwood and played him in Round 2 against Rahm, and then in a tourney bet at 4-1 heading to RD4 (made an entry with Pieters).
Streelman can fit that profile for you this week too as he is playing great right now so maybe the MCs in prior years can be overlooked.

But Phil is Phil.  He was a good player years ago and is still good, just older which isn't a benefit.  Yes the course has some holes that have been updated but it is much the same and Phil hasn't played well here in the past and now off a few weeks he comes in a few years older, so I'm counting on him being very average against a couple of dogs with bite (Lee +120 and Lingmerth +110).  No lock for sure but worth a bet I think.

Anyways Congratulations on a great year Andy.
I value your opinion and I'm glad you have a slight lean on the dogs in this matchup.
Your picks have been so consistently on.
Winners after winners every week.
You are the reason I check this board every week and started posting.  I've been betting the golf lines for a few years and follow golf closely.  I have won in the past so thought I'd share and try to help the board.  Just hope my win percentage picks up.
Really an awesome job by you!
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Newtons Law:

Why not throw in a projected tournament winner each week?

There are several reasons.

1.  I just don't think there's value in the odds, and I just don't see how you can make money of the course of a season.  There's no value in betting on the favorites, and trying to pick a dark horse winner is next to impossible.  I just put all my time, effort, and money into researching head to head matchups.  I do the same thing with nascar and formula 1.

2.  I'm terrible at picking outright winners...lol.
 
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Posted: #9
*patiently waiting for AJLightning to say that I'm wrong about course history...

C'mon AJ...I know you're out there...  
 
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Posted: #10
Well, that wraps up the Murray-Mullinax play
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

*patiently waiting for AJLightning to say that I'm wrong about course history...

C'mon AJ...I know you're out there...  

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


Course history here is tough, imho.  This tourney got flooded out last year so they had to remake it.  It's similar, but it's not exactly the same as in the past.  Also, I just don't put too much into how someone has played 3,4,5 years ago.  A lot with their game has changed since then...could be better, could be worse.  Last week Fleetwood won a tourney he's never made the cut at.  He's a different golfer this year, improved swing, better body, etc.  it's just my style of handicapping.  I looked hard at those matchups, but couldn't come up with anything definitive.  All those guys playing well...value is in Lee and Lingmerth, but I don't see a clear wager in those matchups.

Fair enough, but hard to deny the almighty power of converging trends. I kinda like current form, kinda like course history, etc... but I really like form AND history.  IMHO, if you have a plan each week, you can find a couple guys who are hot and love the track. I like to build my plays around those few each week.


   
 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by PuttForeDough:


Fair enough, but hard to deny the almighty power of converging trends. I kinda like current form, kinda like course history, etc... but I really like form AND history.  IMHO, if you have a plan each week, you can find a couple guys who are hot and love the track. I like to build my plays around those few each week.


   

Lingmerth, Lee, Bradley, Haas all fit the bill for me this week. 
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