Future bet help

Question

I have a bet on Jason Day to NOT win a major in 2017. The odds are -175 for NO.

Lets just say you put 10,000 on this to win 7,500.

THEN lets say he has an average of 10/1 to win each major.

So you put $2k on him to win each major to hedge.

So the only way you can lose money is if he wins the US OPEN, OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP, or PGA. Isnt this a good bet?

If he doesnt win a major, you collect the easy 2k.

I would say the odds are way in your favor.

What do you guys think?

JDaws012 · Answer

I have a bet on Jason Day to NOT win a major in 2017. The odds are -175 for NO.

Lets just say you put 10,000 on this to win 7,500.

THEN lets say he has an average of 10/1 to win each major.

So you put $2k on him to win each major to hedge.

So the only way you can lose money is if he wins the US OPEN, OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP, or PGA. Isnt this a good bet?

If he doesnt win a major, you collect the easy 2k.

I would say the odds are way in your favor.

What do you guys think?

jfcasper · Answer

that doesnt make sense.  Because you cant take the average of the odds he will get to win.  Also if you put 2k on each major, you will lose 8k if he loses each major and only win 7,500 from your no bet.  You will get the best odds on the masters he will be around 12-1 to 14-1.  But if he starts playing like jason day then his odds will be lower for the next majors.  Only way this works is if you have odds for all 4 majors and he is 8 to 1 or better on all 4.  then you can bet 1k on each and win either way.

JDaws012 · Answer

Yes but just think about this... You bet 1000 on Jason Day at -175. That pays you $571.

The masters, as of right now, you can get Day at 15/1.

So hedging the masters would cost $67 to win 1000 (rounding up)

So now you have 1067 invested in the bet. Lets say for the rest of the 3 majors, he is 8/1 which is VERY fair based on his lack of dominance lately.

US OPEN: You would then need to invest $134 at 8/1 to win 1067.

OPEN CHAMP: 1201 at 8/1 is $150.

PGA: $1351 at 8/1 $169.

So you invested $520 in hedging each tournament with NO RISK to win $571. Obviously this is not a big profit margin, but the 8/1 odds on each tournament is IMO the absolute best odds that he would be in these events. You can also put a lot more money on this bet to increase your profit. He will not be lower than 8/1 without winning one of the previous majors anyway! So you would have broke even at that point!

Future bet help

Hot Forum Topics