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Deutsche Bank Championships picks

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Posted: #1
I'm gonna blow everyone's mind with some of the stats this week...

Dustin over Rory
Dustin cashed this last week...riding with it again.

Bubba over Kuchar
I like Bubba's length on this course to overpower some holes, especially the par 5's.  Kuchar finished 65th last week, has struggled in the majors...and Bubba is the underdog here.

Hoffman over Grace

Grace has missed the cut 2 times in a row...before that, super inconsistent.  Hoffman on the other hand has a very quiet 25th and 13th the last 2 tourneys.  He's been up and down this year...I think he may be hitting one of his hot streaks.

Jhonattan Vegas over Harris English

Crazy stat:  Vegas has 7 straight made cuts, and 4 top 25's in that span.

Harris English only has 4 top 25 finishes in all of 2016.  English is making cuts, but not doing anything with them.  Last 4 tourneys he has two 60th place finishes, and two 46th place finishes.

Alex Cejka over Ben Martin
Cejka didn't play last week so he's off of everyone's radar.  Before that he has 3 straight top 21 finishes (and has been one of my draftkings darlings).  Ben Martin has missed the cut 3 out of 5 tourneys.  He has a 2nd at the John Deere (congrats on that finish at that elite tourney), but other than that he's been mediocre at best.

1st round matchups

Had success in 1st round last week...gonna keep it up.  (I go into much more detail on the podcast this week)

Day over Rory
Dustin over Rory

First Round Stats
DJ last 9 tourneys only 1 round over 71
Day last 10 tourneys he has 8 rounds under 68
Rory last 11 tourneys 1 round under 71

Casey over Schwartzel
Casey has better first round scores than Schwartzel the last 4 tourneys.

Reed over Scott
Reed Scott
(tee times and Scores)
Barclays  8:15(66) 8:26(70)
The Open 8:00(66) 2:45(70)
Wyndham 8:00(66)
Travelers 1:25(72)
Bridgestone 1:15(74) 11:48(71)

Adam Scott's best 1st round score this year was at the Arnold Palmer where he shot a 67...his tee time was 8:11 am.

Basically, Reed and Scott love playing in the morning...not so much in the afternoon.

Tee times this week?  Reed 9:15 Scott 1:40

(took me an hour to look up that stats...you're welcome everyone)





 
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Posted: #2
excellent  info as usual, alangrrbs. the "tee off time of day" stat looks to be VERY helpful. esp like the Charlie Hoffman over "Dis-Grace" for the reasons you mentioned. I have both Hoffman even AND Ryan Moore -105 tourney match plays vs "Dis"

I HOPE "Fat Pat" continues his play from last week I have him -110 vs Rickie Fowler, +120 vs Jordan Spieth and +115 vs Adam Scott

as usual I have oodles of little $2 to $5 "to win" long shot "piddle plays" with, of all people, Sung-Hoon Kang @ 250-1 "jumping out" at me after his [-7] 64 finish last week. also Sean O'Hair @ 100-1 off his final round [-5] 66 to tie Emiliano Grillo for 2nd. once again chancing "Woo WHO ???" Kim  and "Big Jhon" Vegas both @125-1. with my single biggest "to win" play is on Grillo @ 40-1. I also have him in a tourney match play -115 vs Oosthuizen

GOOD LUCK, alangrrbs
 
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Posted: #3
man,  I don't get the majority of the bets at my book....none of the day 1 stuff.  the write-ups have me salivating and nothing I can do....

no day vs rory, no dj rory, no casy swartzel, no reed scott.....

no vegas English or moore grace or cejka martin.....guess I will hang my hat on the others.

thanks big al
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by Dr-Spanimal:

man,  I don't get the majority of the bets at my book....none of the day 1 stuff.  the write-ups have me salivating and nothing I can do....no day vs rory, no dj rory, no casy swartzel, no reed scott.....no vegas English or moore grace or cejka martin.....guess I will hang my hat on the others.thanks big al


Yeah, that's crazy. I thought all the matchups made sense...really surprised your book doesn't have them.
 
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Posted: #5
Lot of money coming in on Scott to beat Reed in round 1.  Reed a big underdog now.  
 
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Posted: #6
just one 3rd round match play [2nd round/tourney scores)

Jimmy Walker +135  [-7/-10 T-2nd] over Dustin Johnson -155 [5/-8 T-5th]

ONLY because I HATE Jimmy Walker's GUTS and hopefully THIS will "throw the snake" on the baztard

also thinking  Paul Casey -130 [-5/-10 T-2nd] over Kevin Chappell +110 [-7/-11 1st] ONLY because "Chappie" has been "blowing up" in late rounds in recent tourneys although I do NOT have a 'to win" on him this week SO he will probably WIN the fukker


 
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Posted: #7
Playing Rory over Adam Scott 3rd round
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Playing Rory over Adam Scott 3rd round


Rory rolled Saturday [-4]. Scott was flat [even]. BOTH @ [-4] for the tourney. good luck, alangrrbs  
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Playing Rory over Adam Scott 3rd round


WOW!!! "bomb's away" Rory!!! [-5] Sunday for a tourney [-9] "in range" of the leaders. Scott a [-1] on the day. GOOD call, alangrrbs
 
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Posted: #10
Well done 
 
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Posted: #11
Let's keep the momentum going

Moore ov Chappell

Really like the way Moore is playing right now. Chappel had a -7 round, and two other rounds combined -4. Today an even round. Hoping Moore keeps up the good form.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Let's keep the momentum going

Moore ov Chappell

Really like the way Moore is playing right now. Chappel had a -7 round, and two other rounds combined -4. Today an even round. Hoping Moore keeps up the good form.


wasn't going to play any daily match plays because I got enough tourney stuff to keep me interested BUT think I will tail you alangrrbs. "Chappie" has been "blowing up" in late rounds lately

Ryan Moore -120 over Kevin Chappell

also like Paul Casey +105 over Jimmy Walker and Rory McIlroy -130 over Justin Rose. Walker had one "bomber" round Saturday [-6] but [-1] Saturday. Casey with three in a row [-5] rounds. Rory shot [-5] Saturday to Rose [-2] and beat Rose's score the last two days


 
 
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Posted: #13
Paul Casey is a CHOKE!!! three in a row [-5] rounds and shoots [+2] the final to give the tourney away ??? just goes to show that one does NOT know what some "pampered poodle" is gonna do. AND he blows the final round match with Walker [+2/-1]

gotta hand it to Rory McIlroy, though. a MOST excellent [-6] final to WIN @ [-15]. was 15-1 adjust odds after the 3rd round and 30-1 after the 2nd. VERY similar to Dustin Johnson's come from behind WIN @ the Bridgestone 4th of July weekend

GOOD call on Ryan Moore over Kevin Chappell although Moore tried to give it away late [+1/+2]
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