Paul Casey ov Hideki Matsuyama
Matsuyama played incredible in his last round at the Presidents Cup against Justin Thomas where at one point he was -8 through 9 holes. But that round really looks like the exception based on how he’s playing right now. Matsuyama goes through these periods where he looks like the best golfer on the planet, and then he’ll go 2 months where we looks like a web.com player. He has great course history, there’s no doubt, but Paul Casey is playing way better than Hideki. Casey has finished ahead of Hideki in the last 4 tournaments by an average of 25 positions. Casey not fantastic course history here that’s why this isn’t a huge play for me, but he’s improved his position every year the last 3 years…My favorite part of this play is that Paul Casey is +115.
Kevin Na ov Branden Grace
One of the best ways to make money betting golf is to find guys that are in a funk, and load up against them until they get right. Branden Grace is officially in a funk. He has a very impressive 6th place finish at The British Open, but lets look at the other PGA Tour events outside of Europe. 28th at the Bridgestone, 50th US Open, 48th The Players, MC at the PGA Championship, MC at the Northern Trust, 25 at the Dell Technologies, and then last week at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the European Tour 47th (cashed a bet Fleetwood ov Grace). Kevin Na has finished ahead of Grace in the last 4 tournaments they’ve played in, and Grace has played here twice, both times Na has finished ahead of him, and Na has 3 top 10 finishes here.
Bud Cauley ov Thomas Pieters
Weird play here because I feel like Thomas Pieters is a somewhat big name, and Bud Cauley sounds like a NASCAR driver, but the numbers don’t lie and Bud Cauley is playing better golf right now. It’s not so much that Cauley is playing great golf, but Pieters is kind of a disaster right now. Lets look at his last 4 tournaments on the European Tour. 74th Portugal Masters +2, 66th D+D Real Czech Masters +9, Missed cut at the Made in Denmark, 128th Dubai Irish Open. Last time he played on the PGA tour he missed the cut at the PGA Championship. 4th at the Bridgestone, but a 44th at the British Open, Missed Cut at the US Open. Bud Cauley hasn’t been spectacular, but he only has one missed cut in the last 7 tournaments, -9 at the BMW, and last week tied 7th at the Safeway Open shot -10.
Adam Hadwin ov Peter Uihlein
I didn’t pull the trigger fading Peter Uihlein last week…not gonna make that mistake again. Uihlein won a web.com tour event to get his PGA Tour card. That was a complete flash in the pan, and he’s been bad besides that win. Missed the cut last week at the Safeway Open, missed the cut at the DAP Championship on the web.com tour, 29th at the star-studded Albertsons Boise Open, missed the cut at the PGA Championship…since June on the PGA and European tour he’s combined to play in 7 tournaments…only 2 did he finish under par. Hadwin was great earlier in the year, then started fade, but it looks like he’s coming back around, 13th, 40th, 23 in his last 3 tournaments and those were ACTUAL tournaments…Tour Championship, BMW, Dell Championship, not web.com tournaments. Hadwin is just better, finished 21st here last year Uihlein hasn’t ever played here…and right now Hadwin is +125…I don’t get it, but I’ll happily take it.
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