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Byron Nelson picks

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Posted: #1

Ugly Matchups this week.  Not a lot of big names.


Kevin Tway ov Ollie Shenanigans 


I never thought I’d use this phrase, but… “Kevin Tway is playing some of the best golf in the world right now in the last month”.  5th, 3rd, 3rd the last month.  Only one missed cut the last 7 tournaments.  Shenanigans has been good recently, but not great.  3rd at the RBC, 18th at Valero, but other than that nothing inside the top 30 since February.  The last 2 tournaments they’ve played in together, Tway has finished ahead of him by an average of over 6 shots.

 


Brooks Koepka ov Jason Day 


Going to keep riding Brooks Kopeka.  Should’ve had the outright win over Stenson last week, but he double bogeyed the last hole of the day to get a push, but he still looks great.  Since he got back on track, he has a 9th, 11th, 2nd, 5th, and 16th.  Jason Day still isn’t back to his winning form as he blew up on Sunday giving him a 60th place finish, and that makes 7 straight tournaments for him with no finishes inside the top 20.  


Billy Hurley III ov Billy Horschel 


Horschel 4 straight missed cuts, and a 55th place finish the last 5 tournaments.  Has one tournament under par since February.  Billy Hurley has been really good recently.  Hasn’t missed a cut since the Masters, 4 straight made cuts, including a 41st last week, 8th at the Wells Fargo, 37th at Valero, and 22nd at the RBC.  I just want the golfer with the momentum against the struggling golfer.


John Huh ov Scott Piercy 


Piercy has been AWFUL lately.  His last 4 tournaments (The Players, Valero, Masters, Valspar), his combined score is +35.  John Huh the last 4 tournaments (The Players, Valero, RBC, Shell Houston Open) his combined score is -2.  Not surprisingly, the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, John Huh has finished ahead of Piercy by an average of 12 shots.


Chad Campbell ov Bryson DeChambeau 


This is a strange pick, and here’s why.  Listen to this stat.  3 straight missed cuts, 4 missed cuts out of the last 6 tournaments, no top 10’s this year.  That’s Chad Campbell…the guy I’m betting ON!!!!  Dechambeau 4 straight missed cuts, only top 10 finish was in Puerto Rico.  But here’s the thing about Chad Campbell, and this will blow your mind.  Campbell and DeChambeau have played in 10 tournament together this year.  Campbell has finished ahead of Dechambeau in all 10 of those tournaments!!!!!


Bunch of sexy, sexy names we get to follow this weekend!!!


 
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Posted: #2

Week 16

Matt “He looks like a Kuchar, not a Pitcher”

Charley “If you bag a fat girl, just turn the lights Hoff, man”


Previous Picks


Gary Woodland, Martin Laird

Brendan Steele, Roberto Castro

Shane Lowry, Adam Hadwin

Pat Perez, Byeong Hun An

Kevin Kisner, Tyrell Hatton

Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson

Graham Delaet, Bill Haas

Rory McIlroy, Brandt Snedeker

Charl Schwarzer, Louis Oosthuizen

Lucas Glover, Jim Herman

Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose

Russell Henley, Jason Dufner

Rafael Campos, JT Poston

Ryan Palmer, Hideto Tanihara

Will McGirt, Brian Gaay

Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm


 
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Posted: #3
LIKE them ALL for the reasons you mentioned, alangrrbs. Kevin Tway one of my "long shot" to win picks this week @ 50-1. has a Tied 5th and Tied 3rd his last two tourneys with the T-3rd @ San Antonio. he is an Oklahoma State golfer so he SHOULD be used to any windy conditions.

also thinking Jordan Spieth +150 over Dustin Johnson. Spieth a Dallas, Texas boy who still makes his home there so BOTH this course AND Colonial CC next week could be "home court advantage" for him. in fact he WON @ Colonial last year
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

LIKE them ALL for the reasons you mentioned, alangrrbs. Kevin Tway one of my "long shot" to win picks this week @ 50-1. has a Tied 5th and Tied 3rd his last two tourneys with the T-3rd @ San Antonio. he is an Oklahoma State golfer so he SHOULD be used to any windy conditions.

also thinking Jordan Spieth +150 over Dustin Johnson. Spieth a Dallas, Texas boy who still makes his home there so BOTH this course AND Colonial CC next week could be "home court advantage" for him. in fact he WON @ Colonial last year

Spieth no top 15 finishes at this tournament.  DJ  5 out of 7 tournaments here with top 15 finishes.  The price is right at +150, I'm just staying away from Spieth this week.  
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


Spieth no top 15 finishes at this tournament.  DJ  5 out of 7 tournaments here with top 15 finishes.  The price is right at +150, I'm just staying away from Spieth this week.  


Ya in retro I think you are correct. more interesting is "fade Jason Day" who really has NOT done anything this season and just "blew up" final round of the Players. Louis Oosthuizen +120 over Jason Day, Patrick Reed +140 over Jason Day and Brooks Koepka -120 over Jason Day
 
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Posted: #6
Poston ov Blair 1st round
Hurley ov Streb 1st round
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Poston ov Blair 1st round
Hurley ov Streb 1st round


chanced Sergio Garcia -120 over Jason Day 1st round

Sergio 1st rounds = Players 73 Masters 71 WGC-Mexico 68 Honda 68 Riviera 72 Dubai 65 WGC-Sheshan 68 CIMB 67

Jason 1st rounds = Players 70 Masters 74 API 70 Riviera 70 Pebble Beach 69 Torrey Pines 73 SBS 70
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:



chanced Sergio Garcia -120 over Jason Day 1st round

Sergio 1st rounds = Players 73 Masters 71 WGC-Mexico 68 Honda 68 Riviera 72 Dubai 65 WGC-Sheshan 68 CIMB 67

Jason 1st rounds = Players 70 Masters 74 API 70 Riviera 70 Pebble Beach 69 Torrey Pines 73 SBS 70

random thought....

All those tracks are unique in their own way and all are different from this weeks course. Comparing results from totally different tracks that take a different approach to play, is not the best gauge to use when handicapping golf....IMHO
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:


random thought....

All those tracks are unique in their own way and all are different from this weeks course. Comparing results from totally different tracks that take a different approach to play, is not the best gauge to use when handicapping golf....IMHO


well I do NOT know WHAT to go by then, AJ. also played Sergio because he WON here last year and is the Masters champion while Jason Day has been pretty much "flat" this season so far
 
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Posted: #10
Playing Hurley ov Streb 2nd round.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:



well I do NOT know WHAT to go by then, AJ. also played Sergio because he WON here last year and is the Masters champion while Jason Day has been pretty much "flat" this season so far


AND Jason Day [-2] vs Sergio Garcia [+3] just proves you can NOT handicap these inconsistent PGA "pampered poodles". I am DONE even trying. freeking "money pit"  
 
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Posted: #12
I respect you Rink. I have viewed many of your posts over the years.

 Golf is a unique beast.  Aj‘s point is really valid here. Golf is not played on a uniform ice rink, standard basketball court, football field, etc...  Golf courses tend to fit your game, or they don't. Grass type, green speed, weather, motivation. All this stuff are variables each week. Day playing like crap and hungry. Sergio, fat off the hog. Any hoo. Keep at it Rink.  
 
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Posted: #13
Piercy +105 vs Swafford second round

I realize Piercy has been struggling something fierce of late, but I have to take him in this situation. He could really use a solid showing due to his recent horrible play. Swafford has zero chance of making the cut. He should be packed up and ready to move on to the next stop... Cut should be around +2 or so and he is +11 already. Pierce plus money and should have the motivation to play well.

Fade or follow good luck
 
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Posted: #14
Alan, got a question for you ( hopefully you can answer before their tee off in 25 minutes). 

Spieth has not been playing well and Kuchar did well yesterday.  Would you lean on one over the other today?
 
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Posted: #15
Both those guys have been all over the board recently.  That's a risky pick no matter which way you go.  That being said, I'd lean Kuchar.  The wind isn't a factor, and Kuchars swing has been more consistent recently.  At +135 it's pretty good value.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Both those guys have been all over the board recently.  That's a risky pick no matter which way you go.  That being said, I'd lean Kuchar.  The wind isn't a factor, and Kuchars swing has been more consistent recently.  At +135 it's pretty good value.

I already won both of my morning bets (Johnson -1/2 over Oosthuizen and Garcia over Day) and wanted to go with two this afternoon.  I already had the Hurley over Streb you mention earlier and want another that should be on TV a good deal and that would be Spieth and Kuchar.... I was leaning Kuchar so you helped me pulled the trigger.  I appreciate the response.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Maddog1987:


I already won both of my morning bets (Johnson -1/2 over Oosthuizen and Garcia over Day) and wanted to go with two this afternoon.  I already had the Hurley over Streb you mention earlier and want another that should be on TV a good deal and that would be Spieth and Kuchar.... I was leaning Kuchar so you helped me pulled the trigger.  I appreciate the response.

 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by PuttForeDough:

I respect you Rink. I have viewed many of your posts over the years.

 Golf is a unique beast.  Aj‘s point is really valid here. Golf is not played on a uniform ice rink, standard basketball court, football field, etc...  Golf courses tend to fit your game, or they don't. Grass type, green speed, weather, motivation. All this stuff are variables each week. Day playing like crap and hungry. Sergio, fat off the hog. Any hoo. Keep at it Rink.  


Ya and THEN that cocksucker Sergio shoots a freeking [-5] 2nd round to Day's [-1]. could NOT do that Thursday you Spanish POOF!!! 
 
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Posted: #19
Don't see a lot today unless you still want to push Koepka +100 over Day (I know you have Koepka ovr Day for the tourney and he is currently up 1). 

Everything else seems to be loaded with juice: Johnson -1/2 -160 over Cauley and Garcia -130 ovr Kuchar.

I know your Hurley over Horschel tourney bet is not working out but if you feel Horschel is due to regress, taking Kokrak +110 looks tasty. 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:



chanced Sergio Garcia -120 over Jason Day 1st round

Sergio 1st rounds = Players 73 Masters 71 WGC-Mexico 68 Honda 68 Riviera 72 Dubai 65 WGC-Sheshan 68 CIMB 67

Jason 1st rounds = Players 70 Masters 74 API 70 Riviera 70 Pebble Beach 69 Torrey Pines 73 SBS 70


CRITICS?.......
  *are about 1/2 correct.....seems like they ASSUME that's ALL you're taking into account....if so?.....sure don't place a wager SOLELY on this criteria.....unless VERY small

TRUTH?....an excellent strategy to use each week

WHY?.....just like football...most teams/ players don't play each 'quarter'.....the same
    $  often these tendencies aren't reflected in the line

Of course.......
  *most guys have TENDENCIES......that vary from round to round
   some are about the same.......some start strong....then slowly fade each round.....some relax rd 3 after they have made the cut........some of these guys play great rd 4.....others do not....
  *some simply cannot put 2 great rds back to back...some bounce back strong most every time after a bad rd....some either have it rd 1.....or they don't....like many football teams they can't adjust / figure things out in-game..................
    
eg.

Rd 3      KOKRAK (off 66-62)    v   HORSCHEL (off 68-65)
 
             * K >     ranks #189 in 3rd rd scoring....last few 75 > 79 > 82 > 71 > 74 > 72 > 69....3rd rd clearly his worst....1st #71 / 2nd #130 / 4th #155
            
              * H >   ranks #8 in 3rd rd scoring....last few?....72 > 67 > 67 > 65 > 72 > 69 > 61 > 65.....3rd is his best by far...hacking it up as of late sure.....but CLEARLY...if he makes the cut...his  confidence carries over into a nice rd 3....(rd 1 #71 / 2 #149 / 4 #116)

SO.....hammer Billy Boy solely based on this?......no this simply SUGGESTS a play

$    for me I make a list of guys each week I'm looking to play...and the SPOT I'm looking to play them......BH was about #13-14 on my predictor model (wind / scrambling / par 4 / GIR / driv distance....etc)...so if the knucklehead made the cut.....I was looking to play him rd 3.....JK was not on my radar...so a (possible) fade here............plus in-game stats about the same....BH putting a bit better.........
 *BH  juiced to -120+ it seems...shot 66 / JK 72

Fine work you do here alangrrbs............
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
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Posted: #21
" so if you're so sharp....why not post these great picks wtf?"......

probably will ....haven't bet much golf at all....but betting a LOT since Masters.....doing fine (rounds / in-game mostly)....but the last few weeks not seeing things clearly ha....plus odds often come out too late for me.....hope to join in soon............

Hey Rat...........seen Tommy's Honour ?......................
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
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Posted: #22
I was busy and missed this week...just got to read this whole thread.

I just want to interject (is that a real word? ).
.....................................

This is alangrrbs thread.

He makes his picks in this thread.
........................................


Why do other people sometimes  put THEIR picks here too ??
I would appreciate those picks if they were in THEIR OWN thread.

But not here, in alangrrbs thread.
.......................................

Comments ? yes
Theorys ? yes
Questions ? absolutely

But if you have golf picks of your own, please start a thread and put your picks there.

NOT in alangrrbs thread.

Again...I like the questions...IE..."alangrrbs, do you think Arnold Palmer is a good bet to beat Gary Player this week ?"
alangrrbs replies..."no, not this week on a links course"


That stuff is great....awesome

But if you have your own picks put them in your own thread please.

I'm old and get confused easily.

Thanks guys.

jw11
 
 
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Does momentum matter on the PGA Tour? A dive into the numbers reveals a surprising answer
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