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    All Forums | Pro Golf

    British Open picks

    alangrrbs
    LeRinkRat
    benhogan76
    sacker17
    Newtons Law
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 1716
    Posts: 14
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2017 - 11:01 PM ET #1

    Here we go.  Stacked card.  

    Rickie Fowler ov Dustin Johnson


    Pretty simple here, Dustin has missed the cut the last two tournaments he’s played in, and it hasn’t been close.  +8 at the Memorial, +4 at the US Open.  He was on an absolute tear, but has been terrible recently.  And at the US Open he struggled to hit the fairways, and those fairways were wider than...(I went into some comparisons about how wide the fairways were on the podcast, that would not be allowed on this websites.  Some of the comparisons involved cheerleaders legs, John Daly hangovers, and Bubba Watson's....)


    Rickie fowler, meanwhile, has been playing great golf, 4 top 10 finishes in 5 of his last events…9th last week at the Scottish open…and Dustin hasn’t played in a month.



    Sergio Garcia ov Rory McIlroy


    Have to have to have to fade Rory.  He’s got the lingering injury, he’s newly married, and he’s still getting used to an equipment change.  All that has lead to his horrible form this year.  Three missed cuts in the last 4 tournaments, including two in a row.  Before the injury he had a slew of top 10 finishes…after his comeback?  Nothing inside the top 15…he even missed the cut at the Irish Open hosted by the Rory McIlroy foundation.  Sergio Garcia this year has one finish outside the top 30.  That’s it.  Seven finishes inside the top 20, already has a win at a major this year so he doesn’t have that added pressure…love this matchup.


    If you really want to go crazy, this week, I see Rory Mcilroy matched up against Matsuyama and Justin Rose.  So if you’re feeling crazy, and you just want to load up against Rory.  If you were so inclined…you could bet all three against Rory.  And that's what I'm going to do.


    Rose ov Rory

    Matsuyama ov Rory


    Adam Scott ov Jason Day


    Jason Day just hasn’t been himself this year, two straight missed cuts in his last two tournaments, and in fact he only has 4 tournaments this entire year where he finished under par…the last two tournaments he shot +10 at the US Open Open missed cut, and +2 at the Travelers missed cut.  Adam Scott missed the cut at the US Open as well, but still finished 5 shots ahead of Day.  Scott played at the Scottish Open last week where he finished 35th so I like that he’s coming off a European Tour event the week before.  Adam Scott is 4-1 against Day in tournaments they’ve played in together this year, and Scott has better recent finishes at this tournament, a win, 2nd place, 20th, and 23d here the last 4 years.  Day only one top 20 finish ever here.


    Andy Sullivan ov Tyrell Hatton


    Tyrell Hatton was great earlier in the year, but he’s kind of fallen apart recently.  Missed cuts recently at the Scottish Open, Irish Open, Open de France, US Open, 4 in a row.  Over par at the Players, 29th at the RBC Heritage, +14 missed cut at the Masters…he’s been bad.  Andy Sullivan, meanwhile, has pretty good finishes recently.  9th at the Scottish, 20th at the Irish, 13th at the Open de France, made cut at the BMW International Open, 48th at the Masters.  In fact, Sullivan has finished ahead of Hatton in the last 5 tournaments they’ve played in together by an average 6.5 shots.  Hatton finished 5th here last year, but he has 5 missed cuts in row before that.  Sullivan has a 12th and 30th the last 2 British Opens.






    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Here we go.  Stacked card.  

    Rickie Fowler ov Dustin Johnson


    Pretty simple here, Dustin has missed the cut the last two tournaments he’s played in, and it hasn’t been close.  +8 at the Memorial, +4 at the US Open.  He was on an absolute tear, but has been terrible recently.  And at the US Open he struggled to hit the fairways, and those fairways were wider than...(I went into some comparisons about how wide the fairways were on the podcast, that would not be allowed on this websites.  Some of the comparisons involved cheerleaders legs, John Daly hangovers, and Bubba Watson's....)


    Rickie fowler, meanwhile, has been playing great golf, 4 top 10 finishes in 5 of his last events…9th last week at the Scottish open…and Dustin hasn’t played in a month.



    Sergio Garcia ov Rory McIlroy


    Have to have to have to fade Rory.  He’s got the lingering injury, he’s newly married, and he’s still getting used to an equipment change.  All that has lead to his horrible form this year.  Three missed cuts in the last 4 tournaments, including two in a row.  Before the injury he had a slew of top 10 finishes…after his comeback?  Nothing inside the top 15…he even missed the cut at the Irish Open hosted by the Rory McIlroy foundation.  Sergio Garcia this year has one finish outside the top 30.  That’s it.  Seven finishes inside the top 20, already has a win at a major this year so he doesn’t have that added pressure…love this matchup.


    If you really want to go crazy, this week, I see Rory Mcilroy matched up against Matsuyama and Justin Rose.  So if you’re feeling crazy, and you just want to load up against Rory.  If you were so inclined…you could bet all three against Rory.  And that's what I'm going to do.


    Rose ov Rory

    Matsuyama ov Rory


    Adam Scott ov Jason Day


    Jason Day just hasn’t been himself this year, two straight missed cuts in his last two tournaments, and in fact he only has 4 tournaments this entire year where he finished under par…the last two tournaments he shot +10 at the US Open Open missed cut, and +2 at the Travelers missed cut.  Adam Scott missed the cut at the US Open as well, but still finished 5 shots ahead of Day.  Scott played at the Scottish Open last week where he finished 35th so I like that he’s coming off a European Tour event the week before.  Adam Scott is 4-1 against Day in tournaments they’ve played in together this year, and Scott has better recent finishes at this tournament, a win, 2nd place, 20th, and 23d here the last 4 years.  Day only one top 20 finish ever here.


    Andy Sullivan ov Tyrell Hatton


    Tyrell Hatton was great earlier in the year, but he’s kind of fallen apart recently.  Missed cuts recently at the Scottish Open, Irish Open, Open de France, US Open, 4 in a row.  Over par at the Players, 29th at the RBC Heritage, +14 missed cut at the Masters…he’s been bad.  Andy Sullivan, meanwhile, has pretty good finishes recently.  9th at the Scottish, 20th at the Irish, 13th at the Open de France, made cut at the BMW International Open, 48th at the Masters.  In fact, Sullivan has finished ahead of Hatton in the last 5 tournaments they’ve played in together by an average 6.5 shots.  Hatton finished 5th here last year, but he has 5 missed cuts in row before that.  Sullivan has a 12th and 30th the last 2 British Opens.






     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2017 - 11:02 PM ET #2

    Francesco Molinari ov Chris Wood


    Interesting matchups here, and even though we have to lay some juice with Molinari here, I’m happy to do it.  Chris Wood just has not been very good recently.  Missed cut at the Masters, missed cut at the US Open,  and then he had a WD at the Open de France, and a bad missed cut at the Scottish Open last week…I don’t like how he’s playing right now, and guess what KJ…he’s got one of the two injuries we really focus on…which is it KJ?  Bad wrist.  Molinari missed the cut at the US Open, but he’s been fine other than that this year.  38th at the Open de France, and before the US Open, only 1 missed cut all year, and 9 top 25 finishes.  Molinari 5 straight made cuts at the British Open, all top 40 finishes including a 9th and a 15th so he’s ok a this tournament.  


    Russell Henley ov Bubba Watson


    Every week we bet against Bubba Watson…every week he doesn’t let us down.  Shot -9 last week…still finished 44th, and lost his head to head matchup against Ben Martin.  This week?  matched up against Russell Henley who was really good earlier in the year, started to fade a couple months ago, but looks like he may have his mojo back.  Three straight made cuts, 5th last week at the greenbrier.  Henley is 6-1 against Bubba this year in tournaments they’ve played together in.  Bubba only makes the cut 50% of the time at the British Open…never finished inside the top 22 here.  Henley pretty similar history at the British Open, so I’ll happily take 2017 Henley ov 2017 Bubba.


    Paul Casey ov Brooks Koepka


    Koepka won the US Open and hit an insane 91% of Greens in Regulation.  Guess what he’s not going to do at the British Open KJ?  Here’s the big thing I see, and there aren’t any stats…and that’s the point.  He hasn’t played since then.  The three tournaments before that he didn’t have one finish inside the top 30.  I see a big let down after a major win from a guy who caught lightning in a bottle for the US Open.  He didn’t play the British Open last year…I just don’t see how he comes out and plays winning golf, and Paul Casey has been playing solid, consistent golf recently. Since February only one finish outside the top 26, no missed cuts, 6th at the Masters, and 26th at the US Open so he’s been good at majors…I like Paul Casey to play really good golf…I see Koepka struggling.


    Bryson DeChambeau ov Emiliano Grillo


    I didn’t think I’d be betting on DeChambeau this year, especially since he missed 9 cuts in a row at one point this year, but I can’t ignore what he’s done the last 4 weeks.  4 straight made cuts, 26th, 17th, 14th, and a win at the John Deere.  I know they’ve been watered down fields, but in his 7 missed cuts, he was a combined +30, and in the last 4 tournaments he’s been a combined -33.  KJ he’s done something with his swing, or his putting, and I’m going to back him this week against Grillo who’s been a disappointment this year.  Missed the cut at the US Open, +12 at the Masters, 43rd at the Travelers, and last week at the Scottish Open he missed the cut!!!  Last year Grillo finished 12th here, but that was last year when he was playing really good…I love the momentum from DeChambeau and he’s +120 in this matchup!!!




    Finishing score 275.5.  Par is 70.  That’s 280 to finish par.

    Over -140, under is +110

    The winner only needs to be -5 to win this bet?


    I LOVE the under.  This entire year, the books have underestimated how good these golfers are.  I know the fairways are tight, I know the wind will be breezy…I don’t care.  These guys are good.  Someone is going to go low on the first day, and guys will catch up.  One of my favorite bets of the week.

    Reply

    Francesco Molinari ov Chris Wood


    Interesting matchups here, and even though we have to lay some juice with Molinari here, I’m happy to do it.  Chris Wood just has not been very good recently.  Missed cut at the Masters, missed cut at the US Open,  and then he had a WD at the Open de France, and a bad missed cut at the Scottish Open last week…I don’t like how he’s playing right now, and guess what KJ…he’s got one of the two injuries we really focus on…which is it KJ?  Bad wrist.  Molinari missed the cut at the US Open, but he’s been fine other than that this year.  38th at the Open de France, and before the US Open, only 1 missed cut all year, and 9 top 25 finishes.  Molinari 5 straight made cuts at the British Open, all top 40 finishes including a 9th and a 15th so he’s ok a this tournament.  


    Russell Henley ov Bubba Watson


    Every week we bet against Bubba Watson…every week he doesn’t let us down.  Shot -9 last week…still finished 44th, and lost his head to head matchup against Ben Martin.  This week?  matched up against Russell Henley who was really good earlier in the year, started to fade a couple months ago, but looks like he may have his mojo back.  Three straight made cuts, 5th last week at the greenbrier.  Henley is 6-1 against Bubba this year in tournaments they’ve played together in.  Bubba only makes the cut 50% of the time at the British Open…never finished inside the top 22 here.  Henley pretty similar history at the British Open, so I’ll happily take 2017 Henley ov 2017 Bubba.


    Paul Casey ov Brooks Koepka


    Koepka won the US Open and hit an insane 91% of Greens in Regulation.  Guess what he’s not going to do at the British Open KJ?  Here’s the big thing I see, and there aren’t any stats…and that’s the point.  He hasn’t played since then.  The three tournaments before that he didn’t have one finish inside the top 30.  I see a big let down after a major win from a guy who caught lightning in a bottle for the US Open.  He didn’t play the British Open last year…I just don’t see how he comes out and plays winning golf, and Paul Casey has been playing solid, consistent golf recently. Since February only one finish outside the top 26, no missed cuts, 6th at the Masters, and 26th at the US Open so he’s been good at majors…I like Paul Casey to play really good golf…I see Koepka struggling.


    Bryson DeChambeau ov Emiliano Grillo


    I didn’t think I’d be betting on DeChambeau this year, especially since he missed 9 cuts in a row at one point this year, but I can’t ignore what he’s done the last 4 weeks.  4 straight made cuts, 26th, 17th, 14th, and a win at the John Deere.  I know they’ve been watered down fields, but in his 7 missed cuts, he was a combined +30, and in the last 4 tournaments he’s been a combined -33.  KJ he’s done something with his swing, or his putting, and I’m going to back him this week against Grillo who’s been a disappointment this year.  Missed the cut at the US Open, +12 at the Masters, 43rd at the Travelers, and last week at the Scottish Open he missed the cut!!!  Last year Grillo finished 12th here, but that was last year when he was playing really good…I love the momentum from DeChambeau and he’s +120 in this matchup!!!




    Finishing score 275.5.  Par is 70.  That’s 280 to finish par.

    Over -140, under is +110

    The winner only needs to be -5 to win this bet?


    I LOVE the under.  This entire year, the books have underestimated how good these golfers are.  I know the fairways are tight, I know the wind will be breezy…I don’t care.  These guys are good.  Someone is going to go low on the first day, and guys will catch up.  One of my favorite bets of the week.

     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2017 - 11:03 PM ET #3

    THESE ARE FOR FUN ONLY...DON'T BET TOO MUCH ON THESE!!!

    They are really hard to hit, but they are fun as hell to follow on Thursday and Friday.

    Missed cut/Made Cut Parlays


    To make the cut:


    Fleetwood, Casey, Leishman, Kuchar

    2-1


    Sergio, Fowler, Rahm, Rose, Matsuyama, Adam Scott

    2.5-1


    Zach Johnson, Molinari, Stricker

    2.5-1


    To Miss The Cut


    Dustin, Rory, Jason Day

    46-1


    Shane Lowry, Tyrell Hatton, Chris Wood

    19-1


    (Shane Lowry missed cut the last two British Opens)


    Brooks Koepka, Thomas Pieters, Brandt Snedeker

    24-1


    Reply
    THESE ARE FOR FUN ONLY...DON'T BET TOO MUCH ON THESE!!!

    They are really hard to hit, but they are fun as hell to follow on Thursday and Friday.

    Missed cut/Made Cut Parlays


    To make the cut:


    Fleetwood, Casey, Leishman, Kuchar

    2-1


    Sergio, Fowler, Rahm, Rose, Matsuyama, Adam Scott

    2.5-1


    Zach Johnson, Molinari, Stricker

    2.5-1


    To Miss The Cut


    Dustin, Rory, Jason Day

    46-1


    Shane Lowry, Tyrell Hatton, Chris Wood

    19-1


    (Shane Lowry missed cut the last two British Opens)


    Brooks Koepka, Thomas Pieters, Brandt Snedeker

    24-1


     
    LeRinkRat
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2017 - 11:35 PM ET #4

    Bryson DeChambeau ov Emiliano Grillo

    I LOVE THIS esp @ Bryson +125. one that definitely "jumped" at me when I saw it
    Reply
    Bryson DeChambeau ov Emiliano Grillo

    I LOVE THIS esp @ Bryson +125. one that definitely "jumped" at me when I saw it
     
    benhogan76
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    Posted: Jul. 19, 2017 - 11:44 AM ET #5

    Really like Scott play.
    You sir are also a humanitarian as well.
    Reply
    Really like Scott play.
     
    sacker17
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    Posted: Jul. 19, 2017 - 1:19 PM ET #6

    Andy,
    Love your card.  I'm on most of them already.

    I just cant bet Henley at -150 v Bubba.  Too high although I would lean Henley.
    Truth is Bubba has been better lately but then again he isn't likely to play well at the British.  They may both MC and -150 is just too high.  I will play Bubba to MC though, along with DJ, Rory & Day all small bets

    Good luck
    Reply
    Andy,
    Love your card.  I'm on most of them already.

    I just cant bet Henley at -150 v Bubba.  Too high although I would lean Henley.
    Truth is Bubba has been better lately but then again he isn't likely to play well at the British.  They may both MC and -150 is just too high.  I will play Bubba to MC though, along with DJ, Rory & Day all small bets

    Good luck
     
    Newtons Law
    Newtons Law
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    Posts: 2016
    Posted: Jul. 19, 2017 - 6:24 PM ET #7

    Alan

    Rain and windy does that change your -5 prediction?
    Reply
    Alan

    Rain and windy does that change your -5 prediction?
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posts: 4739
    Posted: Jul. 19, 2017 - 8:47 PM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

    Andy,
    Love your card.  I'm on most of them already.

    I just cant bet Henley at -150 v Bubba.  Too high although I would lean Henley.
    Truth is Bubba has been better lately but then again he isn't likely to play well at the British.  They may both MC and -150 is just too high.  I will play Bubba to MC though, along with DJ, Rory & Day all small bets

    Good luck

    I don't blame you.  I jumped on it at -130, and apparently everyone else did too.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

    Andy,
    Love your card.  I'm on most of them already.

    I just cant bet Henley at -150 v Bubba.  Too high although I would lean Henley.
    Truth is Bubba has been better lately but then again he isn't likely to play well at the British.  They may both MC and -150 is just too high.  I will play Bubba to MC though, along with DJ, Rory & Day all small bets

    Good luck

    I don't blame you.  I jumped on it at -130, and apparently everyone else did too.
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posts: 4739
    Posted: Jul. 19, 2017 - 8:51 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by Newtons Law:

    Alan

    Rain and windy does that change your -5 prediction?

    No.  I'm expecting some guys to go low on Thursday.  Rain now made those greens soft, so approach shots can be aggressive...greens are slow so they can be aggressive on putts...I expect some low scores on Thursday...Friday could be difficult, but Saturday and Sunday there will be birdies out there.  I'm expecting -7 or lower to win.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Newtons Law:

    Alan

    Rain and windy does that change your -5 prediction?

    No.  I'm expecting some guys to go low on Thursday.  Rain now made those greens soft, so approach shots can be aggressive...greens are slow so they can be aggressive on putts...I expect some low scores on Thursday...Friday could be difficult, but Saturday and Sunday there will be birdies out there.  I'm expecting -7 or lower to win.
     
    PuttForeDough
    PuttForeDough
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    Posts: 752
    Posted: Jul. 20, 2017 - 12:52 AM ET #10

    Love this tournament. BOL this week to you. 

    I have some coin on the Molinari and Sullivan plays. 

    Reply
    Love this tournament. BOL this week to you. 

    I have some coin on the Molinari and Sullivan plays. 

     
    clepto
    clepto
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    Posted: Jul. 20, 2017 - 1:29 AM ET #11

    276.5 is the number for a reason. Check the weather. It looks tough...

    Reply
    276.5 is the number for a reason. Check the weather. It looks tough...

     
    LeRinkRat
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    Posted: Jul. 20, 2017 - 4:19 PM ET #12

    Rose ov Rory
    Matsuyama ov Rory

    freeking McIlroy. though we were gonna get a Rory CUT "walkover" after his front nine [+5] BUT the bugger comes back with a [-4] back side for 1st round [+1] which SHOULD be right on the cut line after Friday

    Bryson DeChambeau ov Emiliano Grillo. BOTH "butt ugly" 1st rounds @ [+6]. Bryson hits a driver out of bounds his first shot of the tourney makes a triple on #1 and just never recovered. will see WHAT happens Friday
    Reply
    Rose ov Rory
    Matsuyama ov Rory

    freeking McIlroy. though we were gonna get a Rory CUT "walkover" after his front nine [+5] BUT the bugger comes back with a [-4] back side for 1st round [+1] which SHOULD be right on the cut line after Friday

    Bryson DeChambeau ov Emiliano Grillo. BOTH "butt ugly" 1st rounds @ [+6]. Bryson hits a driver out of bounds his first shot of the tourney makes a triple on #1 and just never recovered. will see WHAT happens Friday
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Joined: Aug, 2011
    Posts: 4739
    Posted: Jul. 20, 2017 - 11:01 PM ET #13

    Playing Kaymer ov Hatton round 2

    They are in the same group, so they get the same weather...Hatton has been a train wreck for the last month or so...he was awful again today...Kaymer has a chance to make the cut so I see Kaymer playing more focused golf today.
    Reply
    Playing Kaymer ov Hatton round 2

    They are in the same group, so they get the same weather...Hatton has been a train wreck for the last month or so...he was awful again today...Kaymer has a chance to make the cut so I see Kaymer playing more focused golf today.
     
     
    Jarrett75
    Jarrett75
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    Joined: Nov, 2004
    Posts: 27902
    Posted: Jul. 21, 2017 - 7:55 AM ET #14

    Well it looks as if Rory has figured out he's Rory. He's made a mess on the last 3 holes and made two par puts of 10 and 15 feet. I have Rose vs him and not thrilled like I was when he was +5 yesterday
    Reply
    Well it looks as if Rory has figured out he's Rory. He's made a mess on the last 3 holes and made two par puts of 10 and 15 feet. I have Rose vs him and not thrilled like I was when he was +5 yesterday
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