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Barclays picks

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Posted: #1
Happy to have a tourney with a full field...some mind blowing losses last week because of some random guys playing the best tourneys they've played in years (Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell)...however, absolutely loving...LOVING my picks this week.

I'll post detailed stats tomorrow on these picks, but here are the picks.


Dufner v Wagner (the line has changed drastically already...I got Dufner at -120...currently at -150)

Stenson v Spieth

Dustin v Rory

Reed v Fowler

FIRST ROUND MATCHUP

Stenson v Spieth


Had a phenomenal podcast today (it's posted)...lots of draftkings, went over these picks and many other picks...found some incredible stats going into this tourney which I'll post tomorrow (I'm exhausted and going to bed soon), but everything is on the podcast if you guys are interested..."The Golf Betting Guys" on itunes.

Speaking of which...are we doing a draftkings group this week?  I'm down!!!  Just send me the invite... draftkings name is the same as my name on covers "alangrrbs" for whoever is putting it on...
 
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Posted: #2
LOVING "Konig Henrick" this week. I think his 10-1 "to win" future is the "you bet your bollocks" play this week. problem IS ex for Stenson over Rory -105 all his match plays are BIG lays. -135 vs Spieth & -140 vs Rose

like a few long shots. "Woo WHO ???" Kim is 80-1 while "Big Jhon" Vegas is 150-1. both have shown they are capable of shooting "bomber" rounds. Luke Donald came out of hibernation last week and is 100-1 while Scott Piercy is worth a shot @ 150-1 IF he can return to his US Open - Bridgestone form

kind of worried about "Fat Pat" vs "Rickie Tickie". like Russell Knox even over Fowler "mehr besser"

good luck, alangrrbs
 
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Posted: #3
Can't find my piece of paper with all the stats on it...so I'll do the best I can remembering them.

Dufner v Wagner
The only reason this is a matchup is because Wagner has had 2 good results at 2 tourneys with very few big names playing in it.  Wagner hasn't played in a major this year...Dufner has done well in the majors.  Dufner is just in a different class than Wagner with a stacked field, and a very tough course.

Stenson v Spieth
IMO, Stenson is the hottest golfer on the circuit.  His last 3 tourneys, 1st, 7th, 2nd.  Spieth is struggling to make the top 10.

Dustin v Rory
The last time we saw Dustin he was terrible.  But before that he had 6 straight top 10s, and 5 out of 6 top 5's.  Rory has missed the cut the last 2 majors.  I think Dustin's disaster tourney was an outlier, and I like him to contend this week.

Reed v Fowler

The last 8 tourneys these guys have played together in, Fowler has finished ahead of Reed exactly once.  Continuing to fade Fowler here.

Stenson v Spieth First Round

The last 3 tourneys these guys have played in together, Stenson has beaten Spieth in the first round by 3 strokes every time.

Here are some crazy stats I found while looking at past results from this year.  I wanted to see how guys have done in the majors, since I look at this tourney as similar to a major.  Tough course, stacked field.  Check out some of these numbers:

Total Combined Scores of all 4 majors:

Matt Kuchar: +28
Bubba: +26
Kevin Na: +13
Russell Knox: +13
Jason Dufner: +13
JB Holmes: +6 (However he has 3 straight really bad MC's)

I was looking hard at Kuchar in matchups, but that number really worried me.  Looking like he struggles on the big stage maybe?  Same with Bubba this year?  Also, those numbers really made me think about how undervalued guys like Na, Knox, and Dufner are (especially in draftkings).
 
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Posted: #4
William-Hill came out with their 1st round matchups Tuesday morning and there are some interesting "dog" match plays I think could have a chance

Si Woo Kim +155 over Henrick Stenson (20 for 51)
Patrick Reed +105 over Phil Mickelson  (20 for 41)
Graeme McDowell +135 over Rickie Fowler (20 for 47)
Daniel Summerhays +180 over Rory McIlroy (20 for 56)
Kevin Kisner +130 over Hideki Matsuyama (20 for 46)
Brandt Snedeker +130 over Jordan Spieth (20 for 46)

and ya I know it's "iffy" BUT sometimes the "top players" don't show up the 1st round. just in case I am completely WRONG I took this "halfazzed hedge" parlay (10 for 106)

Henrick Stenson -175 over Si Woo Kim 
Rickie Fowler -155 over Graeme McDowell
Rory McIlroy -210 over Daniel Summerhays
Hideki Matsuyama -150 over Kevin Kisner
Jordan Spieth -150 over Brandt Snedeker






 
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Posted: #5
Good luck with the plays guys... I am taking Kisner -105 vs Thomas... Kisner has been playing solid lately and I like the fact that he seems to hit the ball straighter than Thomas. Kisner did well this time last year and I am hoping for more of the same this year. I will probably play a few single round matches as the tournament plays out. Best of luck guys!
 
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Posted: #6
Adding

Day v Rory 1st round
DJ v Rory 1st round
 
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Posted: #7
VERY lucky the 1st round going 3-2-1 BUT "Woo WHO ???". had 2 shots on Stenson and BOGIES #18 vs Henrik birdie to GIVE it AWAY!!! BOTH played  just HORRID @ [+3] their opening rounds,  "Fat Pat" beat "The Mick" [-5/-1] and "Kiss" and "Schned's" "squeeked it" past "Samurai Golfer" and Spieth both [-1/even]. Rory @ [even] could have been had BUT Danny Summerhays "blows up" the first three holes bogie-bogie-double and just never recovered for a [+5]. looks like "Rickie Tickie" has decided to play golf this week. beats McDowell [-4/+1] and just one behind the leaders

some surprises near the top after 1st round. the Scotty Martin Laird tied for 1st with "Fat Pat "[-5] and Kevin "Chappie" Chappell @ [-4] for his best start since the Bridgestone. Jason Day "lurking" @ [-3] along with my man "Big Jhon" Vegas who birdied the last two holes his 2nd 9. VERY surprised at "Konig Henrick's" [+3] opening along with "Woo WHO ??" who shot the lights out @ The Wyndham winning last week
 
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Posted: #8
Taking Stricker ov Wagner 2nd round
 
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Posted: #9
WOW just WOW!!! just saw where Henrik Stenson a WD after that [+3] opening. must be a physical problem because not THAT far back with three rounds to go
 
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Posted: #10
Gotta take Casey -1/2 ov Choi
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Gotta take Casey -1/2 ov Choi


I guess so with 1st round [even] vs [+7]. trouble for me is Casey is Pick -240 that match @ William-Hill

I chanced these five 2nd round

Patrick Reed -110 over Phil Mickelson
Kevin Kisner +120 over Hideki Matsuyama

gonna ride with "Fat Pat" & "Kiss" again in a repeat of 1st round matchups

Daniel Berger +110 over Brooks Koepka

"Cheeseburgher" with a solid 2 birdie vs 2 bogie [even]. Koepka all over the place with 4 birdies but 6 bogies [+2]

also John Huh -120 over Boo Weekley

Huh [-2] with 4 birdies vs 2 bogies. Boo [+3] and finished with 3 bogies1st round

Daniel Summerhays +215 over Rory McIlroy

gonna try the high odds "big dog" again. Summerhays [+4] his opening 3 holes and [+5] for his front side 1st round. was [even] on his 2nd 9. I don't think he will do that Friday. he shot a [-3] 67 his 2nd round @ Baltusrol on his way to 3rd in the PGA. Rory with a very pedestrian 3 birdies-3 bogies [even]




 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Gotta take Casey -1/2 ov Choi


2009 US open was at Blackpage .... Casey shot a 2nd round 77 to follow a first round even par.     Ghosts could come back get in his head today!   
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone1008:



2009 US open was at Blackpage .... Casey shot a 2nd round 77 to follow a first round even par.     Ghosts could come back get in his head today!   


interesting stat BUT KJ Choi just STINKS. btw I added your Marc Leishman +105 over Louis Oosthuizen to 2nd round match plays off you thread, Cyclone1008
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:



interesting stat BUT KJ Choi just STINKS. btw I added your Marc Leishman +105 over Louis Oosthuizen to 2nd round match plays off you thread, Cyclone1008

Choi does suck.... i followed him in a recent tournament pair.    He doesn't have the length for this course.  His year to date tour stats...

he ranks 192 off the Tee / Driving distance.    already 10mph winds think that will cut into his length even more.     

he has no chance of going low to make the cut most likely.... would have to hit a lot of fairways and greens today.... 


Casey birdied the first two par 5's.... bogey the 3rd.    Off the tee Casey ranks 35 and driving distance and accuracy about 50 for each.     He can manage this course better today i think.   

rd 1 first 2 par 5's.... choi missed a 4ft and 10 ft birdie attempt respectfully on each .... his putting not so good at moment.  

rd 1 first 2 par 5's...  Casey put in a 19ft and 14 ft birdie attempts and made both.    and the 3rd par 5 that he bodied he left a 11ft putt 3 inches short...   tells me his game is set up to dissect the course better give himself more opportunities to go at the hole .... 

choi is ranked high in scrambling around green etc.... he is getting up and down ...trying with his putt attempts.     


 .    
 
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Posted: #15
I went 3-2-1 for Friday. BUT have 6 out of 8 in in Denmark tourney match plays with opponent CUTS. kind of begs the question WHY do I FOOL with the PGA when there are a few "hackers" on the Euro Tour one can just "auto-fade" ???
 
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Posted: #16
Taking Rory -1/2 ov Woodland. Gary with some lucky long putts today. If Rory is going to make a move in this tourney, it has to be tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #17
Ok. Need help.  I bet big on stenson over speath.  Then tried to bet first round and essentially doubled bet on tournament.  Stenson wd. After first round.   Normally this cancels bets correct?

My book had it as a loss.  I called them and filed query.  Waiting on result.   5 weeks ago.  Finau was ahead and opponent wd and it canceled bet

What is protocol.  Thanks for help
 
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Posted: #18
Usually, protocol is that once someone tees off...all their bets are live.  A few weeks ago at the tournament where Daniel Berger pulled his BS, he hit his tee shot off the first hole, and then walked off the course and collected 50k for participating.  Same applies for bets.  Once a golfer tees off, all bets apply.  If Spieth would've WD, your bets should've been graded as wins.

Obviously, I had Senson over Spieth for tourney, and first round, and Stenson was a joke, so we lose.

I know he doesn't care, but I like Stenson, love his game...but this is the second time this year he has had a bad round and WD, and I've lost respect for him.  Saying something about his knee hurting...funny...his knee seemed fine the last 3 tourneys when he was the best golfer on tour.  I don't know if he's legit hurt, but there's something that really bothers me about when guys WD because they have a bad round, or because they can collect an easy 50k...I hope sponsors take notice.  I'd love to just take a week off of work because I had a bad Monday...
 
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Posted: #19
I know I should be happy I won the Reed v Fowler bet with Rickie playing as good as he did...

But it will be years before I'm over the Dufner - Wagner bet.  Dufner had a 9 shot lead on Wagner coming into today.  Wagner shoots -7 today and hit two 20ft birdie putts, a 26ft birdie putt, a 31 ft birdie putt, and a 35 ft birdie putt.  Dufner bogey's the last hole to finish +2 on the day and push the bet.  Unreal.   
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

I know I should be happy I won the Reed v Fowler bet with Rickie playing as good as he did...

But it will be years before I'm over the Dufner - Wagner bet.  Dufner had a 9 shot lead on Wagner coming into today.  Wagner shoots -7 today and hit two 20ft birdie putts, a 26ft birdie putt, a 31 ft birdie putt, and a 35 ft birdie putt.  Dufner bogey's the last hole to finish +2 on the day and push the bet.  Unreal.   


I took the exact same type screwing with a Luke Donald over William McGirt tourney match. damn Donald had a 6 SHOT lead in the match BUT shoots [+4] for [+3] final round vs "Mc Dirt's" [-4] for [+1]. also got a "blow job" from Kevin Kisner [+5] for [+2] over vs Paul Casey [+1] for [even] final round. a bunch of these guys, esp ones I had bets on, looked like they just did NOT GIVE a FUKK this whole week and esp on Sunday

AND I had a "to win" on Emiliano Grillo @ 75-1 $10 for $760. IF "Emmo" does NOT bogie those two holes on the back side he would have been THERE!!! all in all this was the WORST PGA tourney results I had ALL SEASON!!!
 
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Posted: #21
thanks for the info....

the match that got me confused was 7/21 canandian open...we bet finau over c Hoffman...

c Hoffman did not play, m Hoffman did....

I think that c Hoffman never took never took a swing, maybe withdrew after bets were placed.  the bet was cancelled.  I thought he was injured.
sucked because stenson just took me for 600 honey.  my sports book does not offer all that yours do, so I only could take 3 of the bets out of 5, and they were reed and dj so my overall week was not as bad as everyone elses.


thanks for the help

 
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Dr-Spanimal:

thanks for the info....

the match that got me confused was 7/21 canandian open...we bet finau over c Hoffman...

c Hoffman did not play, m Hoffman did....

I think that c Hoffman never took never took a swing, maybe withdrew after bets were placed.  the bet was cancelled.  I thought he was injured.
sucked because stenson just took me for 600 honey.  my sports book does not offer all that yours do, so I only could take 3 of the bets out of 5, and they were reed and dj so my overall week was not as bad as everyone elses.


thanks for the help



yes at most sportsbooks IF a player withdraws without starting it is a refund. happened to me to me this week with Alex Cejka for the 2nd week in a row. his "to win" was refunded after the tourney ended

BUT like alangrrbs said, once a player has hit a shot in a tourney IF he then withdraws then any bets on them are rated a loss like Daniel Berger @ Bridgestone and Henrik Stenson last week @ Barclays
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