Posted:
#5076
agreed. Waiting for my book to release the line. I am thinking around 23.5
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NBA & NCAA Season Long Hoops Chat - Hosted by The Peoples Champ, Featuring Expert BigD
Posted:
#5087
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:
0-2 -200
Round 1: Game 1
New Jersey +185
Toronto +141
Columbus +133
Colorado +229
San Jose +125
Your taking all these?And if you hit 2 you would not lose much?Or do you think they have a chance to win and lines are way off,just curious on your thinking here,lol.
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Posted:
#5088
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:
Your taking all these?And if you hit 2 you would not lose much?Or do you think they have a chance to win and lines are way off,just curious on your thinking here,lol.
Your taking all these?And if you hit 2 you would not lose much?Or do you think they have a chance to win and lines are way off,just curious on your thinking here,lol.
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=23&sub=103231357
Great Playoff system... been doing the last 5 years
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Posted:
#5089
Locked in:
Celtics to win 1st rd series (-150)...max unit wager for me...i simply cant see Bucks winning this series...Giannis is gimpy at best, and who else do they really have? Very disappointing season for Milwaukee should end here in the 1st rd...coaching edge is huge for Boston, plus im sure Stevens has been working on his playoff lineups over this last stretch of the season when for them the games werr relatively meaningless. Boston still shoots the 3 pretty well, and their D should play a key role to get them thru into the 2nd rd where they likely bow out.
This price may be too good to be true, but i am a sucker for the better team, better coach, better home court advantage, and overall history of winning franchises like Boston...until the Bucks prove anything, they are just a one trick pony from Greece.
MAGAm Yisrael Chai
0
Posted:
#5090
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:
Locked in:
Locked in:
Celtics to win 1st rd series (-150)...max unit wager for me...i simply cant see Bucks winning this series...Giannis is gimpy at best, and who else do they really have? Very disappointing season for Milwaukee should end here in the 1st rd...coaching edge is huge for Boston, plus im sure Stevens has been working on his playoff lineups over this last stretch of the season when for them the games werr relatively meaningless. Boston still shoots the 3 pretty well, and their D should play a key role to get them thru into the 2nd rd where they likely bow out.
This price may be too good to be true, but i am a sucker for the better team, better coach, better home court advantage, and overall history of winning franchises like Boston...until the Bucks prove anything, they are just a one trick pony from Greece.
damn, pb. i swear i was gnna grab the bucks for the series. i'm glad i checked. looking forward to some more basketball with you gents! finally we can start seeing some energy in the nba
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
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Posted:
#5091
Came across this earlier today from a well respected capper. Here's some food for thought, if you're into numbers and trends, for the playoffs
TRENDS BY LINE RANGE
Big home favorites almost always win. Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA frst-round home favorites of 8.5 points or more
are 32-1 SU & 18-15 ATS. The only team to lose during that span was Oklahoma City in Game 2 of the 2016 frst round, to Dallas. Bigger road favorites are a solid bet. Only two of the last 24 road favorites of 4.5 points or more have lost outright, going 22-2 SU & 17-6-1 ATS.
Small home favorites are not a wise wager. First-round home favorites of 4 points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as over the last four playoff seasons, they are just 16-20 SU & 11-25 ATS.
LAST GAME TRENDS
Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series. Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 54-31 SU & 39-45-1 ATS.. Those coming off a loss are 50-49 SU & 41-54-4 ATS. Naturally, the latter are usually the lower-seeded team in a series but this is a good indication of how momentum aids a team. Blowout losses carry over There is a bit of misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough frst-round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 10 points or more are just 28-58 SU & 34-51-1 ATS in the next contest. Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect. Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or fewer, in the frst round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 24-8 SU & 21-10-1 ATS mark in the next game. In the underdog role, these teams are on an amazing 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS surge!
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
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Posted:
#5092
TRENDS BY GAME NUMBER
Three of every four home teams win opening game. Home teams have gone 30-10 SU & 21-19 ATS over the last fve seasons. Upsets occur in Game 1’s with lines of -7.5 or less. Of the last 19 frst-round Game 1’s with home favorites of 8 points or more, there has only been one upset. However, in Game 1’s with home favorites of 7.5 points or fewer, hosts are only 7-9 SU & 6-10 ATS over the L4 playoff seasons.
Opening game home losers are not a good Game 2 bet. Contrary to popular “ying-and-yang” bettors’ beliefs, home teams that lost in Game 1 of a frst-round series are not a good bet in Game 2 either, as they are just 6-4 SU & 3-6-1 ATS since ’13.
The Best Game 3 home teams are those that split their first two games Game 3 home teams that split their frst two games on the road are 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS since 2013, while those that were either up 2-0 or down 2-0 are collectively just 11-27 SU & 12-15-1 ATS in that same span.
Game 4 games most often go to the team
looking to even the series. An interesting trend fnds that teams that are down 2-1 in a frst-round series are on an 18-7 SU & 17-7-1 ATS run in Game 4’s.
Game 5’s lean to a road team wager. Game 5’s tend to be tight, as home teams, while 19-11 SU, are just 11-18-1 ATS over the L5
playoff seasons. Those home teams attempting to close out a series in Game 5 are just 2-5-1 ATS in their L8.
Game 6’s are road domination. Road teams in NBA frst-round Game 6’s are16-8 SU & 18-6 ATS in the last fve seasons. Defense is usually the key, as they are holding home teams to just 92.8 PPG, and have gone UNDER the total in 17 of those 24 contests.
Road teams in this scenario looking to close out a series are 10-4 SU & ATS.
Game 7’s are a toss up?
Every fan loves a big Game 7, and NBA fans should even more, as the frst-round Game 7’s are not automatic for hosts. In fact, home teams are 7-3 SU & 4-6 ATS in their L10.
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
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Posted:
#5093
TRENDS BY SEED NUMBER
#1 seeds are fantastic when underrated. #1 seeds when in the small favorite (-2.5 or less) or underdog role are 6-2 SU & ATS since 2013 in the frst round of the playoffs. They are also 7-1 UNDER the total in those games while allowing just 94.5 PPG. Similarly, #1 seeds are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their L7 frst-round games when trailing in a series.
#1 seeds close out series...period
Top-seeded teams are on an 8-game winning streak in closeout frst-round playoff games, going 7-1 ATS in the process.
#2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk. #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 32-5 SU & 24-13 ATS when favored by 4.5 points or more. #2 seeds start fast. #2 seeded teams are on a run of 18-2 SU & 13-7 ATS in the frst two games of frst-round series over the last fve years.
#3 seeds’ totals dichotomy is interesting. #3 seeds have trended OVER the total (27-16) the last fve years as favorites, but UNDER the total (15-4) as underdogs. #3 seeds struggle in closeout games but thrive when trailing #3 seeds boast an 8-5 outright record in closeout games but they are just 4-9 ATS in those contests. That said, #3 seeds are 9-2 SU & 6-4-1 ATS when trailing in a frst-round series. #3 seeds bounce back on the road after losses. Third-seeded teams are on a run of 7-1 SU & ATS on the road after losing the prior game in a frst-round series.
#4 seeds have been brutal in games 3 & 4. Fourth-seeded teams have struggled with a 4-16 SU & 6-14 ATS record in games 3 & 4 of the frst-round series. #4 seeds are simply a bad bet lately. Other than in the role of favorites of 6 points or more (8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS L10), #4 seeds have been a terrible wager the last fve years, going 14-34 SU & 16-31-1 ATS in all other line scenarios. #4 seeds have tended to stack losses Among the many scenarios in which #4 seeds in the NBA playoffs have struggled lately, bouncing back from losses is near the top. They are just 9-19 SU & ATS since 2013 in the game following a loss.
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
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Posted:
#5094
Last one. Brain overload, I know, but there's a lot of good stuff in here to think about
TRENDS BY TEAMS CLOSING OUT SERIES OR FACING ELIMINATION
Big road favorites closing out series are $$$. Road favorites of 4.5 points or more in a series closeout scenario are 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS since the start of the ’13 postseason. Small favorites/underdogs closing out series are not $$$. Teams attempting to close out a series in a non-Game 7 scenario and playing as underdogs or favorites of 2 points or fewer are just 5-13 SU & 6-12 ATS in their L18 tries.
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
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Posted:
#5097
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:
Posted: 10 hours ago "Quote" Locked in:Celtics to win 1st rd series (-150)...max unit wager for me...i simply cant see Bucks winning this series...Giannis is gimpy at best, and who else do they really have? Very disappointing season for Milwaukee should end here in the 1st rd...coaching edge is huge for Boston, plus im sure Stevens has been working on his playoff lineups over this last stretch of the season when for them the games werr relatively meaningless. Boston still shoots the 3 pretty well, and their D should play a key role to get them thru into the 2nd rd where they likely bow out.This price may be too good to be true, but i am a sucker for the better team, better coach, better home court advantage, and overall history of winning franchises like Boston...until the Bucks prove anything, they are just a one trick pony from Greece.
PB, Had you written this cap a couple of months ago I would have agreed with you wholeheartedly... much has changed in Beantown of late. take a look; Jabari Bird, Shane Larkin, starters! Marcus Smart OUT, Irving OUT, Rozier (injured finger on his shooting hand) QUESTIONABLE. This is only the tip of the iceberg, the Celtics have 'major' issues in the starting line-up, Center? nothing, zero..PF? Giannis is going to eat'm alive..as previously stated, "Boston has NO gaurd play whatsoever...Your assessment on the Bucks holds water, "they haven't proven a thing" in my opinion, they do have a better starting five (at the moment) and a stronger bench, unfortunately Boston is riddled by injuries, and Stevens is no miracle worker (he simply has nothing to employ) the lean goes to Milwaukee in this spot, to WIN the series in 6...
Posted: 10 hours ago "Quote" Locked in:Celtics to win 1st rd series (-150)...max unit wager for me...i simply cant see Bucks winning this series...Giannis is gimpy at best, and who else do they really have? Very disappointing season for Milwaukee should end here in the 1st rd...coaching edge is huge for Boston, plus im sure Stevens has been working on his playoff lineups over this last stretch of the season when for them the games werr relatively meaningless. Boston still shoots the 3 pretty well, and their D should play a key role to get them thru into the 2nd rd where they likely bow out.This price may be too good to be true, but i am a sucker for the better team, better coach, better home court advantage, and overall history of winning franchises like Boston...until the Bucks prove anything, they are just a one trick pony from Greece.
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Posted:
#5099
SportsN...i agree that most people will look at the last month of the Celts season as a complete failure heading into the playoffs, however...i see it more as a glorified training camp for the playoffs with a mash unit of players learning how to play with each other...they still have Horford, Morris, Smart should be back, Rozier and Jalen Rose too, and this could be a huge oppirtunity for Tatum to shine if he has any gas left in the tank...i think Boston has been playing possum ever since shutting down kyrie...for atleast this series, the matchups still favor Boston if only because Mulwaukee is no offensive juggernot either
MAGAm Yisrael Chai
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Posted:
#5100
Locked in:
Pelicans to win series +175
Pelicans +6 game 1
Pelicans ML +210 game 1
Anthony Davis man possessed, Rondo quietly having a great season playing once again on a winning team, Dru Holiday playing out of his mind since the all star break, Mirotic channeling his inner Drazen Petrovic since joining this team, and Coach Gentry finally not screwing things up as of late...this team can score quick and often...Portland relies on Lillard and McCollum for the majority of their points, and i look for Pelicans to take away atleast one of these 2, while i cant see anyone on Portland stopping Davis in a 7 game series, as Nurkic and company will get in foul trouble early and often....just not a believer in Portland who is more or less a jump shooting team with lack of depth beyond their all star back court.
Now...could you imagine how scary this Pelicans team would be if Boogie was healthy and mentally stable when on the court? They would be unstoppable on most nights with that front court like that.
MAGAm Yisrael Chai
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