USFL plays 2022

We are officially within one month, 31 days, until the New Jersey Generals take on the Birmingham Stallions. On FOX.

With no stats to use for handicapping purposes (not that it helps me win when I do have stats) I'll bet the Generals.

Why the Generals?

Because I'm Jersey born and raised so I may as well be a homer, it's as good a reason as any at this point.

(And because I'm a degenerate gambler so I have to some action on this, the first game of the year.)

Unfortunately, I won't have Herschel at running back and Jim Kelly at quarterback. (Oh, what might have been...)

Also, I'll be taking the Under, because offenses are usually behind the defenses to start the year. (And because I'm a degenerate gambler, etc, etc.) 

Just kidding with the "Stats don't help me win" and "I'm a degenerate gambler" remarks. I do okay W/L-wise, and I'm as far away as you can get from being a degenerate gambler, I'm very disciplined and limit my rare, regular-size unit buys to games where I have an edge charted in my database.

I'll post the games I buy, but unlike my usual "Buy Notices" I'm not recommending anyone buy these because it's unknown territory.

Small $ amounts wagered for (hopefully) big fun, and a winning session of chess versus the oddsmakers.(The USFL is as new to them as it is to me, and I recall them getting killed on Unders in a different new league, not so long ago.)

I'm just killing time until I can make some real buy recommendations with the start of college football later this year.

You only live once, so grab all the fun you can, while you can. And to me, this will be fun (I think.)

Good luck to anyone else wading into the uncharted waters of a new league.

To survive, a new league has to provide excitement, and excitement comes from offense. So I expect the league "wants" and "expects" offense from their product right out of the gate. Despite this, I'm riding the Under in game 1.

As for my play on a side, I changed my mind. I don't like Skippy but I trust Riley even less. So much for being a homer, call me Benedict Arnold, because...

Birmingham -3

Under 41'

Added play:

Hou/Mich Ov 42'

Recap: 1-2
Record: 1-2

I should have stuck to my original plan - take Unders as O's will be behind the D's in early play. Unders went 3-1.

The level of play overall wasn't that bad.
The drone is annoying.
The vacant stands are just sad. I give the league credit though for showing the empty seats, most new leagues instruct their cameramen to use tighter shots of the players and field to hide the lack of fans. Wondering if that will change this week if nobody shows up again.

Based on observation from week one, TB looks to be a decent squad on both sides of the ball, while Pit coach Kirby looks certifiable ("Okay boys, it's 3rd and 22, on our opponents 35 yard line, and we're down by 14 pts late in the 4th quarter. This is clearly a spot that calls for a run up the middle.") <- That wasn't an exact description of a real play, just an example of the type of gridiron genius he showed throughout the game.
His play calling was abysmal, and then there's that entirely insane, "SHUTUP AND EAT YOUR DAMNED CHICKEN SALAD!!!" episode, which surely endeared him to his players (the ones he didn't fire because they have an aversion to chopped poultry coated with mayo.) He's my candidate for first coach to be fired, if the league lasts for more than two weeks.

An early buy.

Grabbing TB because I think it goes to -3 by game day. The Breakers looked okay, but TB looked better. They missed a few opportunities on offense. I think with another week of practice they'll tighten up those mistakes and outscore NO.

Buys:
TB -2'

Recap: Took a loss with TB, hit game one of the two team teaser.
Record: 1-3 (with one teaser open)

Down 2 units + juice going into week three, pretty much what I expected.

Interesting weekend ahead, a game between the two undefeated 2-0 teams and a game between the bottom-feeder 0-2 teams.

I won betting against NJ in week one, and I'm going back to that play.
NJ looked pathetic last week, winning just 10-6 against a team that may be the worst in the league, Mich.
Philly got their first win of the season last week. It came against the lowly Maulers, but their loss in week one came against NO, who is clearly the top team in the league. And the Stars kept it close against them, losing 23-17.

Winner gets first place in the division.

I like Philly here, and I only have to lay one point.

And for a little rooting interest on Saturday I'm using my open teaser on the Ov in Birmingham/NO.
Yes, NO has the best D in the league, surrendering an avg of just 10 pts per game, but this week they face the Birmingham Stallions, the top scoring team in the league, averaging 30 pts per game.
I expect at least 23-24 pts from the Breakers, which means the Stallions only need two TD's to hit my #.
I like the odds for that scenario.

Buys:
Philly -1
Birmingham/NO Ov 37' (2nd half of teaser)

Recap: 0-2

Record: 1-5

Sucking as expected, flying blind here.

Gonna try something different this week, Fade consensus picks (fading writers/'cappers from various sports betting outlets, not the public. The "public is on" #'s that books provide to "help you" beat them are usually BS. Not an opinion or second hand info, but fact from being inside.)

Seven of eight writers/cappers I reviewed say take Mich tonight and I can't blame them. Fisher is well-established as a moron (anyone catch his play calls at the end of the first half last week? Even the announcers mocked him) but his team does two things well - run and play D. And Philly can't stop the run. And they lost their QB last week.

Mich looks like the play, but I'm fading the consensus this week, so . . .

Phil is +1' right now, I doubt they get any $, so no sense buying this morning. Wait until game time and get a better line.