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Cycling: 2009 Vuelta a Espana

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Okay. I've had a dodgy time after the TDF so if you have been following me, I'm sorry. Stick by me because the Vuelta is going to rock. Found some excellent matchups.
 
Firstly to the winner. There are a few riders here concentrating for the worlds ie Cunego, Evans, Schleck's etc.
 
Samuel Sanchez has based his whole season around this. Everything he works for comes to the next three weeks.
 
Valverde has had good success in the Vuelta without a win. A few podium places.
 
Basso is the other guy who is concentrating on the Vuelta. They have a strong team with Kreuziger, Szmyd & Zaugg among others.
 
Vinokourov is coming back. Will be interesting to see how he goes.
 
Mosquera is the other main contender having finishing fourth and fifth the last two years.
 
Valjavec has come out and said they are aiming for top five. With that in mind, I have a perfect bet. All my outright bets will come in the next post.
 
Evans is concentrating on the Worlds but if he's in a position to win, he'll go for the win.
 
Fuglsang is Saxo Bank's leader. They've come out and said that as the Schleck's are looking to the World's.
 
Kirchen will be looking for a strong performance and wants to make amends.
 
Cunego will be lucky to finish top 10 because of his concentration on the world's.
 
Dan Martin will be Garmin's leader. Could sneak into the top 10.
 
Jose Angel Gomez Marchante is Cevelo's leader. Could do a top 10.
 
I'm looking forward to the sprint battle between Greipel and Farrar. You would think we would get better odds in the sprint stages and I'll be backing the American most times out of ten.
 
 
 
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Posted: #2
4 units Samuel Sanchez to win @ $7 - Self explanatory. The winner will come from Basso, Valverde and Sanchez. Considering Sanchez has trained for the Vuelta and sacrificed other races, he is a strong chance and at those odds I'll happily take him to win his first grand tour.
 
Top 10
 
10 units Tadej Valjavec @ $1.68 - He wants a top five. Ag2r are on a roll. Considering my explanations above in regards to the world's, he is a solid bet to do this.
 
1 unit Jose Angel Gomez Marchante @ $4 - Cervelo's leader. I can see him go close to a top 10. This price I'll happily take him at.
 
Overall H2H
 
6 units Jose Angel Gomez Marchante over Tom Danielson @ $1.86 - Is this a joke? Danielson is washed up. Will be riding for Martin.
 
8 units Valjavec over Fuglsang @ $1.86 - Thank you, I'll take this price.
 
Yes, I'm risking a lot in Valjavec. However, they are aiming high up in the GC and due to World's preparation, he shouldn't find it that hard getting there.
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Vinokourov is a bakcup for Astana as I know so far. I'm wondering who could be the leader for Astana, are they going with Kloden or Horner, for sure one of the 2 guys will be in the top 10.
 
If you have a change, pick up Sanchez to win a stage, the price is good and he's there to win.
 
I expect Valverde to win it all.  He shown great results this year and won the Dauphine.  He was ready for France but couldn't be there.
 
If Fulsang is the team leader and Shleck are focusing on WC, could we expect that they will withdraw before the end ?
 
What do you think about Bennati over Valverde in the point classificaiton @ 2.75 ?
 
Liquigas will finish top 3 in team classification, we should pick them against Caisse d'épargne @ 2.75
 
Egoi Martinez was interested in the KOM jersey in France, he's matched-up against Moncoutie @ 2.25 , could be nice to watch.
 
Interessting top 10 picks : Evans  @ 1.66, Vino @ 2.75 if he's there, Kreuziger @ 3.50, Zaugg @ 5.50
 
Sanchez to win a stage @ 1.76
Farrar @ 1.20
Greipel @ 1.50
Freire @ 2.10
Bennati @ 2.10
Mosquera @ 3.00
Andy @ 2.50
Evans @ 2.15
Grabsch @ 2.25
 
I'll post my selections soon, I have my friday free to do so.
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
Vinokourov is definately riding the Vuelta. He'll be the leader. I don't think Kloden is racing.
 
Fuglsang is definately Saxo's leader. Don't know about the Schleck's withdrawing. Hard to tell. They are focused 100% on Fuglsang and the Schleck's are focused 100% on the Worlds. Saxo have said it themselves.
 
Bennati I wouldn't touch. He's struggled to win and come top three in sprints following his injury. Valverde will be good for a few stage wins so I highly doubt Bennati will beat him in the points.
 
Moncoutie may be going for the mountains having missed out on the Mountains in the Tour. Havn't heard anything about his goals yet but Martinez might be working for Sanchez.
 
Valverde or Sanchez will win. I'm tipping Valverde to have one or two bad days that screws him over.
 
Good luck!
 
Veteran
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Posted: #5
Great discussion so far. Those matchups are really interesting.

Will be looking forward to following the plays throughout this Tour.

Quick little note about the blind strategy to trust the book's knowledge of the matchups. Last time around, I though there would be value in the dog but I was mistaken. Favs are consistently hitting and yes, of course, the juice hurts but I'm gonna track this once again. HERE are the numbers I got early this mourning for all future matchups on Pinnacle.

As usual, BOL to both of ya .
 
Captain
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Posted: #6
Gomez Marchante should finish ahead of Cobo
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Vuelta is starting tomorrow at 3:26 regional time, it's at 9:26 EST.
 
I've placed all my props bets. Once again, I have around 130 units for the whole tour, I'm playing on both Bet365 and Pinnacle.  I'll take advantage of the best odds offered between the 2 sites.
 
I ended up with a low 5 units profit in France, hope for much better results here.
 
Props bets
 
Teams :
 
2.5 units on Liquigas to win @ 5.50
5 units on Euskaltel over Astana @ 1.66
 
Overall matchups :
 
7.5 units on S. Sanchez over Basso @ 1.98
5 units on Vino over Evans @ 3.42
5 units on Vino over Jose Gomez Merchante @ 2.89
5 units on Fuglsang over Tondo @ 2.10
2.5 units on Zaugg over Moreno @ 2.25
 
Points :
 
5 units on Farrar over Ciolek @ 1.83
 
Overall :
 
5 units on Valverde to win @ 2.75
 
Stage wins :
 
4 units on Andy Schleck over 0.5 @ 3.50
4 units on Vino over 0.5  @ 2.25
4 units on Cancellara over 1.5 @ 2.25
10 units on Greipel over 0.5 @ 1.50
10 units on S. Sanchez over 0.5 @ 1.76
 
All these bets for a total of 74.5 units, there's 55 units left
 
Good luck all, I hope you'll enjoy this last Tour.
 
Next up will be the WC.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
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Posted: #8
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Stage 1
 
2.5 units on Valverde over Farrar @ 2.10
2.5 units on Millar over Rabon @ 2.50
2.5 units on Kreuziger over Kirchen @ 1.57
2.5 units on Vino over Evans @ 1.901
2.5 units on Tuft over Arvesen @ 1.926
 
7.3 units on Cancellara to win @ 1.752
 
I see a top 3 with Cancellara 1st, Valverde or Kreuziger should be 2nd or 3rd
 
 
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10

A pretty good start on 4.8 km circuit.  Only Valverde lost his matchups.

Going 5-1 with a 12.7 units profit.

 
Veteran
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:

 
2.5 units on Valverde over Farrar @ 2.10  
2.5 units on Millar over Rabon @ 2.50   
2.5 units on Kreuziger over Kirchen @ 1.57   
2.5 units on Vino over Evans @ 1.901     
2.5 units on Tuft over Arvesen @ 1.926
 
7.3 units on Cancellara to win @ 1.752    



TorontoJoey -  Why the ?  Seems to me like it's pretty simple. A couple of guys picking the winners during a bike race. Sounds good to me. Hopefully, we'll see a lot of these in this thread.

Nice start & good work with the capping of the TT  .


 
Veteran
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Posted: #12
Shit, I just missed out on a 21 - 6 day with the favorites this mourning during stage 1.  ( profit of 12.18 units )

Dammit. Just had the feeling the blind strategy would come through. The books sure as hell know whats going on with the matchups.

Horrible money management I know but hell, that's a free 12 units with absolutely no work involved.

Will the system still work down the road? No idea but today would have been a great day if I was on it.





 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
A few plays for tomorrow's mass sprint
 
Farrar and Greipel are the 2 strongest guys in the pack, they probably both want to win tomorrow, therefore :
 
2.5 units on Farrar to win @ 2.90
2.5 units on Greipel top 3 @ 2.00
7.3 units on Greipel over Boonen @ 2.09
 
Enjoy the 2nd stage.
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Wow!
 
I was away all weekend so I havn't made any stage plays.
 
Congratulations on a profitable start. Hopefully we all win a lot!
 
Captain
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Posted: #15
My first bet of a stage will be when live betting happens in the next 10 or so minutes. I'll be backing one of the sprinters for the win.
 
Captain
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Posted: #16
In play:
 
1.5 units Greipel to win @ $6.50
 
6.5 units Ciolek over Bennati @ $1.90
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
Adding a 2.5 units on Farrar over Boonen @ 1.50
 
I also had Greipel over Freire @ 1.85 but I couldn't place it on time.
 
Captain
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

In play:
 
1.5 units Greipel to win @ $6.50
 
6.5 units Ciolek over Bennati @ $1.90

Ciolek won Bennati second. Greipel third.

So

+4.85 units!

Got the Vuelta off to a winning start.

 
Captain
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Posted: #19
Good day n!ck
 
Greipel just missed out on top 3
 
But you won your Farrar over Boonen and Greipel over Boonen bets.
 
So you must have got a profit too?
 
Two days in and we're all off to good starts!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #20
I lost my top 3 for Greipel by a few inches with his 4th place.  Won the Farrar over Boonen and Greipel over Boonen as well. Greipel over Freire would have been good as well.
 
Today's results : 2-2 +4.4 units
 
Overall : 7-3 +17.1 units
 
Mass sprint won't be as easy as in France
 

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #21

Only 1 play so far, about 5.3 units on Greipel over Ciolek. There's no way HTC loses and Ciolek wins 2 days in row.

 
Captain
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Posted: #22

Stage 3

9 units Ciolek over Boonen @ $1.65
1 unit Greipel to win @ $6.50

Good luck!

 
Captain
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Posted: #23
With Columbia's b-grade team they showed that they can be overrun in a sprint finish.

But I know this team. They will reorganise and get things going for today.
 
Predicting bunch sprints is going to be very hard, however, there is value around in the head to heads as well as the overall win.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
I added Boom over Hoogerland during the 3 men breakaway but unfortunatly, I lost 3.6 units on it
 
Greipel finished 4th once again but Columbia took the win with Handerson.
 
Farrar had a mechanical probleme and finished 11th, Ciolek ended up in 19th place, Boonen ranked 6th.
 
I still won my Greipel bet @ 1.909
 
Today's stage : 1-1 +1.2 units
 
Overall : 8-4 +18.3 units
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 289
Posted: #25
Stage 4 is hard to size.  I think the break will make it to the line but Cancellara will fight back to stay in gold.  I might had some plays in live betting

2.5 units on Casar over Moinard @ 2.08
2.6 units on Cancellara over Gasparotto @ 2.15
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