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    All Forums | Other

    Cycling: 2009 Tour of California

    Bolar
    elithepunk
    n1ck
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    Posts: 19
     
    Bolar
    Bolar
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2009 - 10:12 PM ET #1

    I finally found a market with bet365. Seeing if another bookmaker will do the odds here in Australia. If not, I will have to open up a bet365 account.
     
    Outright winner.
     
    Rogers @ $10 - He is in form and the time trial will be good for him. This is a season goal to win this for Columbia so they are taking it very seriously. Other riders will be taking it casually getting back into the swing of things. Leipheimer is a 2.10 favourite which is understandable but it's hard seeing how his form is compared to Rogers who looks fucking brilliant this time of year.
     
    Small play on Hincapie @ $34.
     
    This is a who's who of cycling.
     
    Basso is riding. Landis is making is comeback. Armstrong is there. The Schleck's are there. Sastre is there. Hamilton is there. Sevilla is back. Rogers, Hincapie are there. Kirchen is there. Leipheimer is there. Vandevelde and Cancellara are the two other big names.
     
    On the sprint side of things we see Freire, Hushovd, Cavendish and Boonen go head to head.
     
    This is a star studded field for February. You would think that Landis, Leipheimer, Hamilton, Rogers and Hincapie are the only ones taking this seriously.
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    I finally found a market with bet365. Seeing if another bookmaker will do the odds here in Australia. If not, I will have to open up a bet365 account.
     
    Outright winner.
     
    Rogers @ $10 - He is in form and the time trial will be good for him. This is a season goal to win this for Columbia so they are taking it very seriously. Other riders will be taking it casually getting back into the swing of things. Leipheimer is a 2.10 favourite which is understandable but it's hard seeing how his form is compared to Rogers who looks fucking brilliant this time of year.
     
    Small play on Hincapie @ $34.
     
    This is a who's who of cycling.
     
    Basso is riding. Landis is making is comeback. Armstrong is there. The Schleck's are there. Sastre is there. Hamilton is there. Sevilla is back. Rogers, Hincapie are there. Kirchen is there. Leipheimer is there. Vandevelde and Cancellara are the two other big names.
     
    On the sprint side of things we see Freire, Hushovd, Cavendish and Boonen go head to head.
     
    This is a star studded field for February. You would think that Landis, Leipheimer, Hamilton, Rogers and Hincapie are the only ones taking this seriously.
     
    Bolar
    Bolar
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2009 - 6:33 PM ET #2

    Liquigas are using this as training

    Landis had a pre-race crash.

    The only guys I see it taking this seriously are Rogers, Leipheimer, Hincapie and maybe Armstrong.

    Therefore

    1 unit on Rogers @ $10
    .5 unit on Armstrong @ $10
    .5 unit on Hincapie @ $34

    Overall Match-Ups

    2 units - Armstrong over Basso @ $1.74 - Basso is taking this as a training ride. Armstrong has had some racing under his belt. Armstrong is a superior time trialist. Armstrong will probably finish with Basso in the climbs. So this is decided in the time trial.

    2 units - Hincapie over Voigt @ $1.63 - Hincapie the better time trialist. Determined to win this. Voigt will be helping out the Schleck's.

    4 units - Rogers over Hamilton @ $1.54 - Rogers is the form rider in the peloton at the moment. Showed he is climbing well and time trialing well.
    Reply
    Liquigas are using this as training

    Landis had a pre-race crash.

    The only guys I see it taking this seriously are Rogers, Leipheimer, Hincapie and maybe Armstrong.

    Therefore

    1 unit on Rogers @ $10
    .5 unit on Armstrong @ $10
    .5 unit on Hincapie @ $34

    Overall Match-Ups

    2 units - Armstrong over Basso @ $1.74 - Basso is taking this as a training ride. Armstrong has had some racing under his belt. Armstrong is a superior time trialist. Armstrong will probably finish with Basso in the climbs. So this is decided in the time trial.

    2 units - Hincapie over Voigt @ $1.63 - Hincapie the better time trialist. Determined to win this. Voigt will be helping out the Schleck's.

    4 units - Rogers over Hamilton @ $1.54 - Rogers is the form rider in the peloton at the moment. Showed he is climbing well and time trialing well.
     
    Bolar
    Bolar
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    Posted: Feb. 13, 2009 - 6:33 PM ET #3

    Prologue Match Ups

    1 unit - Zabriskie over Cavendish @ $1.84 - Yes Cavendish is a good prologue rider but Zabriskie is far better.

    1 unit - Rogers over Boonen @ $2.40 - Again, this is a good value bet. Rogers is a good bet over any distance.

    1 unit - Hushovd over Cancellara @ $3.38 - History shows that Hushovd is good over short distances. Won the prologue at the Tour de France a few years ago and has shown good history with it. Cancellara on the other hand might be the best time trialist in the world, but with his engine, he needs it longer. This is going to be closer than what the odds suggest and I see that price and I'm willing to take it.

    Good luck!
    Reply
    Prologue Match Ups

    1 unit - Zabriskie over Cavendish @ $1.84 - Yes Cavendish is a good prologue rider but Zabriskie is far better.

    1 unit - Rogers over Boonen @ $2.40 - Again, this is a good value bet. Rogers is a good bet over any distance.

    1 unit - Hushovd over Cancellara @ $3.38 - History shows that Hushovd is good over short distances. Won the prologue at the Tour de France a few years ago and has shown good history with it. Cancellara on the other hand might be the best time trialist in the world, but with his engine, he needs it longer. This is going to be closer than what the odds suggest and I see that price and I'm willing to take it.

    Good luck!
     
    elithepunk
    elithepunk
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2009 - 3:51 PM ET #4

    hey a quick comment about the matchups

    bet365 is stealing money cause Pinnacle has all the same matchups with considerably better odds

    BOL with this tour
    Reply
    hey a quick comment about the matchups

    bet365 is stealing money cause Pinnacle has all the same matchups with considerably better odds

    BOL with this tour
     
    n1ck
    n1ck
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2009 - 4:04 PM ET #5

    Bet365 is good for highrollers because the max bet at 350.

    Pinnacle offers better odds, but the max is 86.77 and I'm not sure if you can rebet on the same matchups afterward.  At one time, you could.

    Betting on Armstrong against Basso sounds good, it's time for him to shine.

    Today's pick in a 2.4 miles prologue

    Leipheimer vs Hincapie @ 1.66
    Cancellara vs Hushovd @ 1.41
    Armstrong vs Voigt @ 2.67
    Reply
    Bet365 is good for highrollers because the max bet at 350.

    Pinnacle offers better odds, but the max is 86.77 and I'm not sure if you can rebet on the same matchups afterward.  At one time, you could.

    Betting on Armstrong against Basso sounds good, it's time for him to shine.

    Today's pick in a 2.4 miles prologue

    Leipheimer vs Hincapie @ 1.66
    Cancellara vs Hushovd @ 1.41
    Armstrong vs Voigt @ 2.67
     
    n1ck
    n1ck
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2009 - 6:03 PM ET #6

    Correction, Armstrong vs O'grady finally, wrong name but the 2 huys are 3 secondes apart, hope to see Armstrong in the top 10.
     
    Cavendish has a pretty good time so far, ranked 3rd
    Reply
    Correction, Armstrong vs O'grady finally, wrong name but the 2 huys are 3 secondes apart, hope to see Armstrong in the top 10.
     
    Cavendish has a pretty good time so far, ranked 3rd
     
    n1ck
    n1ck
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2009 - 6:58 PM ET #7

    You did a good job winning 2 out of 3, recording a +1.2 units
     
    I went 3 for 3 with good value on Armstrong.
    Reply
    You did a good job winning 2 out of 3, recording a +1.2 units
     
    I went 3 for 3 with good value on Armstrong.
     
    elithepunk
    elithepunk
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2009 - 7:10 PM ET #8

    I'll call this the Pro Cycling Mutual Fund with high risk but great returns . Seeing that this a such a small market, people who follow the tours constantly like both of you can pull off very decent profit by focusing on the good value being offered by the books and taking advantage of these lines.




    Reply
    I'll call this the Pro Cycling Mutual Fund with high risk but great returns . Seeing that this a such a small market, people who follow the tours constantly like both of you can pull off very decent profit by focusing on the good value being offered by the books and taking advantage of these lines.




     
    Bolar
    Bolar
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2009 - 10:39 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

    Prologue Match Ups

    1 unit - Zabriskie over Cavendish @ $1.84 - Yes Cavendish is a good prologue rider but Zabriskie is far better.

    1 unit - Rogers over Boonen @ $2.40 - Again, this is a good value bet. Rogers is a good bet over any distance.

    1 unit - Hushovd over Cancellara @ $3.38 - History shows that Hushovd is good over short distances. Won the prologue at the Tour de France a few years ago and has shown good history with it. Cancellara on the other hand might be the best time trialist in the world, but with his engine, he needs it longer. This is going to be closer than what the odds suggest and I see that price and I'm willing to take it.

    Good luck!

    2 - 1

    I'll take it. Like I said I wasn't expecting Hushovd to do it, but at those odds it was hard to ignore. In anycase he only finished a couple seconds off Cancellara so it could have been anyone's race.

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

    Prologue Match Ups

    1 unit - Zabriskie over Cavendish @ $1.84 - Yes Cavendish is a good prologue rider but Zabriskie is far better.

    1 unit - Rogers over Boonen @ $2.40 - Again, this is a good value bet. Rogers is a good bet over any distance.

    1 unit - Hushovd over Cancellara @ $3.38 - History shows that Hushovd is good over short distances. Won the prologue at the Tour de France a few years ago and has shown good history with it. Cancellara on the other hand might be the best time trialist in the world, but with his engine, he needs it longer. This is going to be closer than what the odds suggest and I see that price and I'm willing to take it.

    Good luck!

    2 - 1

    I'll take it. Like I said I wasn't expecting Hushovd to do it, but at those odds it was hard to ignore. In anycase he only finished a couple seconds off Cancellara so it could have been anyone's race.

     
    Bolar
    Bolar
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2009 - 10:42 PM ET #10

    Fuck I wish i placed more on Rogers over Hamilton. Just read that Hamilton won't be expecting to finish top 10.

    Those head to head bets over the GC are looking very good.
    Reply
    Fuck I wish i placed more on Rogers over Hamilton. Just read that Hamilton won't be expecting to finish top 10.

    Those head to head bets over the GC are looking very good.
     
    Bolar
    Bolar
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2009 - 10:47 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:

    I'll call this the Pro Cycling Mutual Fund with high risk but great returns . Seeing that this a such a small market, people who follow the tours constantly like both of you can pull off very decent profit by focusing on the good value being offered by the books and taking advantage of these lines.

    Yep. That's what makes this good early in the season. Very confident this is going to be a very profitable tour

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:

    I'll call this the Pro Cycling Mutual Fund with high risk but great returns . Seeing that this a such a small market, people who follow the tours constantly like both of you can pull off very decent profit by focusing on the good value being offered by the books and taking advantage of these lines.

    Yep. That's what makes this good early in the season. Very confident this is going to be a very profitable tour

     
    Bolar
    Bolar
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2009 - 10:51 PM ET #12

    At this stage no play on Stage 1.
     
    I can only access the net at the library thus that's the only way I can put bets on and there is no market up anywhere yet.
    Reply
    At this stage no play on Stage 1.
     
    I can only access the net at the library thus that's the only way I can put bets on and there is no market up anywhere yet.
     
    n1ck
    n1ck
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2009 - 1:46 PM ET #13

    It should be a sprinter finish.  The interesting matchups would be :
     
    Tom Boonen vs Oscar Freire Gomez
    Mark Cavendish vs Tom Boonen
    Thor Hushovd vs Oscar Gomez Freire
    Juan Jose Haedo vs Thor Hushovd
     
    Mark Cavendish is one of the best sprinter and he's ready to show his power.  He's my choice for today's win.
     
    Mark Cavendish vs Tom Boonen @ 1.709
     
    Juan Jose Haedo vs Thor Hushovd @ 1.952
     
    One last :
     
    Levi Leipheimer vs Christian VandeVelde @ 1.671
     
    Hometown finish wearing the yellow jersey, VandeVelde will let him be at the front !
     
     
    Reply
    It should be a sprinter finish.  The interesting matchups would be :
     
    Tom Boonen vs Oscar Freire Gomez
    Mark Cavendish vs Tom Boonen
    Thor Hushovd vs Oscar Gomez Freire
    Juan Jose Haedo vs Thor Hushovd
     
    Mark Cavendish is one of the best sprinter and he's ready to show his power.  He's my choice for today's win.
     
    Mark Cavendish vs Tom Boonen @ 1.709
     
    Juan Jose Haedo vs Thor Hushovd @ 1.952
     
    One last :
     
    Levi Leipheimer vs Christian VandeVelde @ 1.671
     
    Hometown finish wearing the yellow jersey, VandeVelde will let him be at the front !
     
     
     
    Bolar
    Bolar
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    Posted: Feb. 16, 2009 - 12:24 AM ET #14

    What a fucked up stage. Glad I didn't put a wager on.

    How did you go?

    Mancebo will win this now providing he isn't dorpped.

    Reply

    What a fucked up stage. Glad I didn't put a wager on.

    How did you go?

    Mancebo will win this now providing he isn't dorpped.

     
    n1ck
    n1ck
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    Posted: Feb. 16, 2009 - 7:28 AM ET #15

    I ended up being 2 in 3, but the standing is a bit fucked up.

    Mancebo finished 1st folllowed by Nibali and van de Walle, but the stage 1 results shows Leipheimer 2nd. 

    Anyway, Leipheimer and Hushovdfinished in a distinct group than Vande Velde ad Haedo.

    Cavendish was probably scared by the rain finishind 66th.


    Reply
    I ended up being 2 in 3, but the standing is a bit fucked up.

    Mancebo finished 1st folllowed by Nibali and van de Walle, but the stage 1 results shows Leipheimer 2nd. 

    Anyway, Leipheimer and Hushovdfinished in a distinct group than Vande Velde ad Haedo.

    Cavendish was probably scared by the rain finishind 66th.


     
    elithepunk
    elithepunk
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    Posted: Feb. 16, 2009 - 9:01 AM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

    Mancebo will win this now providing he isn't dorpped.



    What a great job by Mancebo to withstand the chasing at the end of the race. He gave the impression he was running out of steam as the laps were getting done but was glad to see him defend the position as he deserved to win the stage after what he went through all alone for the most part.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

    Mancebo will win this now providing he isn't dorpped.



    What a great job by Mancebo to withstand the chasing at the end of the race. He gave the impression he was running out of steam as the laps were getting done but was glad to see him defend the position as he deserved to win the stage after what he went through all alone for the most part.
     
    n1ck
    n1ck
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 289
    Posted: Feb. 16, 2009 - 11:13 AM ET #17

    Leipheimer will be at the front with his partner Armstrong and probably 1 or 2 more Astana members. He must take time over Mancebo to get the yellow jersey pretty soon. 
     
    Therefore, Armstrong is the play today.
     
    I got him at a pretty good price.
     
    Lance Armstrong vs Oscar Sevilla
    409. Lance Armstrong    1.952
     
    I'm not sure Mancebo will show up in good shape today.  Gesink was part of the chase along with Astana members. He should be in the 1st group crossing the line.
     
    Robert Gesink vs Francisco Mancebo
    407. Robert Gesink    2.320
     
    On last, Andy Shleck is one the futur star in cycling and for sure he's dominant in climbing.
     
    Thomas Danielson vs Andy Schleck
    414. Andy Schleck    1.735
    Reply
    Leipheimer will be at the front with his partner Armstrong and probably 1 or 2 more Astana members. He must take time over Mancebo to get the yellow jersey pretty soon. 
     
    Therefore, Armstrong is the play today.
     
    I got him at a pretty good price.
     
    Lance Armstrong vs Oscar Sevilla
    409. Lance Armstrong    1.952
     
    I'm not sure Mancebo will show up in good shape today.  Gesink was part of the chase along with Astana members. He should be in the 1st group crossing the line.
     
    Robert Gesink vs Francisco Mancebo
    407. Robert Gesink    2.320
     
    On last, Andy Shleck is one the futur star in cycling and for sure he's dominant in climbing.
     
    Thomas Danielson vs Andy Schleck
    414. Andy Schleck    1.735
     
    n1ck
    n1ck
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 289
    Posted: Feb. 16, 2009 - 6:17 PM ET #18

    Sevilla stole my money by racing for the bonus 4 or 6 seconds given to the 3rd finisher of the stage.

    I think Gesink was in the Armstrong's group. I saw him with a +30 seconds, I suppose he is 30 seconds behind Leipheimer in the general classification.

    No idea where Andy Schleck finished the race.  I heard that his brother was in the group and that Danielson had a flat tire in the downhill part of the stage.

    I hope to get results soon.



    Reply
    Sevilla stole my money by racing for the bonus 4 or 6 seconds given to the 3rd finisher of the stage.

    I think Gesink was in the Armstrong's group. I saw him with a +30 seconds, I suppose he is 30 seconds behind Leipheimer in the general classification.

    No idea where Andy Schleck finished the race.  I heard that his brother was in the group and that Danielson had a flat tire in the downhill part of the stage.

    I hope to get results soon.



     
     
    n1ck
    n1ck
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2008
    Posts: 289
    Posted: Feb. 16, 2009 - 9:00 PM ET #19

    Schleck feld asleep finishing 78th.

    Ending the day 1-2 -0.68 Unit
    Reply
    Schleck feld asleep finishing 78th.

    Ending the day 1-2 -0.68 Unit
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