Collingwood/Essendon Going with the Pies, expecting a close match. One of the main reasons I like it is, every match this year that has had a line swing of 3 points or more, the direction the line was going that team has won, basically the public view has won. Sticking with it as the line started at -17.5 and is now -14.5. Essendon 2 units
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 8/5 (+17.89 units)
Round 1 - No plays
Round 2 - 3/1
Round 3 - 2/3
Round 4 - 3/1 Round 5 - 3/2
Collingwood/Essendon Going with the Pies, expecting a close match. One of the main reasons I like it is, every match this year that has had a line swing of 3 points or more, the direction the line was going that team has won, basically the public view has won. Sticking with it as the line started at -17.5 and is now -14.5. Essendon 2 units
Not thrilled about this selection probably my second riskiest pick this year, after the Collingwood pick last week.
Showme, I agree the lines have corrected a lot and are tighter. The majority of my picks this year, so far, have been for favourites to cover. Looks like I'll be looking at more dogs to cover from now on.
Not thrilled about this selection probably my second riskiest pick this year, after the Collingwood pick last week.
Showme, I agree the lines have corrected a lot and are tighter. The majority of my picks this year, so far, have been for favourites to cover. Looks like I'll be looking at more dogs to cover from now on.
Disappointing today, the Dons got killed almost over the whole ground. Now the games I really like this weekend... Laying a lot of money out on these 3 games but I think it'll be money well spent.
Carlton/Adelaide Its good to see Judd finally getting some fitness and Fev looked good last week but on a whole a think the Crows are a heap better over the field. The blues will struggle winning many more matches with the leaky defence, even the Dees capitalised on some of their errors last week (slightly keeping them in the game). The intense pressure of the crows have can take advantage of this defence and I expect them to win reasonably comfortably. Hopefully their forwards can kick better than last week. Crows -6.5 (7 units)
Brisbane/Melbourne Where do I start, big chalk for good reason. Lions playing very good footy, Dees (if anybody has had the misfortune of seeing them play) are pitiful. I'm quite confident in saying the Dees won't have a winning matchup over the whole ground. The biggest problem the lions will face is the fact Melbourne will probably flood hte lions forwards but really 10 goal minimum winning margin. Putting more than I should on it but hey, I like it. Lions -43.5 (15 units)
North/Sydney I expect this to be a tight relatively low scoring game but I'm surprised its a pick em. The swans have been very impressive. Swans pick em (5 units)
Disappointing today, the Dons got killed almost over the whole ground. Now the games I really like this weekend... Laying a lot of money out on these 3 games but I think it'll be money well spent.
Carlton/Adelaide Its good to see Judd finally getting some fitness and Fev looked good last week but on a whole a think the Crows are a heap better over the field. The blues will struggle winning many more matches with the leaky defence, even the Dees capitalised on some of their errors last week (slightly keeping them in the game). The intense pressure of the crows have can take advantage of this defence and I expect them to win reasonably comfortably. Hopefully their forwards can kick better than last week. Crows -6.5 (7 units)
Brisbane/Melbourne Where do I start, big chalk for good reason. Lions playing very good footy, Dees (if anybody has had the misfortune of seeing them play) are pitiful. I'm quite confident in saying the Dees won't have a winning matchup over the whole ground. The biggest problem the lions will face is the fact Melbourne will probably flood hte lions forwards but really 10 goal minimum winning margin. Putting more than I should on it but hey, I like it. Lions -43.5 (15 units)
North/Sydney I expect this to be a tight relatively low scoring game but I'm surprised its a pick em. The swans have been very impressive. Swans pick em (5 units)
Freo/Geelong I thought the cats match was tomorrow but its in a couple of hours. Big line, but the cats have the ability to cover in 5 mins, if they try. I'm reasonably confident they'll turn it on at some time during the match. Cats -30.5 (3units)
Freo/Geelong I thought the cats match was tomorrow but its in a couple of hours. Big line, but the cats have the ability to cover in 5 mins, if they try. I'm reasonably confident they'll turn it on at some time during the match. Cats -30.5 (3units)
Freo/Geelong I thought the cats match was tomorrow but its in a couple of hours. Big line, but the cats have the ability to cover in 5 mins, if they try. I'm reasonably confident they'll turn it on at some time during the match.
Cats -30.5 (3units)
You were right, they turned it on in the last 10 mins of the 2nd quarter! The main problem for anyone on them was the fact that they were never in front until about 5 mins to go in the game, otherwise they could have blown the game out with a good old fashioned Geelong spurt!!
Like your Adelaide pick, and wanted to take Bris myself...just didn't like the line in the end being above 40 (just made me a little worried, thus was a no play for me).
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:
Freo/Geelong I thought the cats match was tomorrow but its in a couple of hours. Big line, but the cats have the ability to cover in 5 mins, if they try. I'm reasonably confident they'll turn it on at some time during the match.
Cats -30.5 (3units)
You were right, they turned it on in the last 10 mins of the 2nd quarter! The main problem for anyone on them was the fact that they were never in front until about 5 mins to go in the game, otherwise they could have blown the game out with a good old fashioned Geelong spurt!!
Like your Adelaide pick, and wanted to take Bris myself...just didn't like the line in the end being above 40 (just made me a little worried, thus was a no play for me).
games are ending up just how i thought one fav covered easily that should have ..while another didnt..its a 50 50 sort of week hard to make much this week
games are ending up just how i thought one fav covered easily that should have ..while another didnt..its a 50 50 sort of week hard to make much this week
Geelong game might scare me off the Lions pick. Did like the Lions, who will have their percentage in mind, to rail the disintegrating Dees. But, now with Geelong almost losing.....
Or perhaps Geelong got complacent whereas the Lions will have none of that?
Need a step back and a rethink this round, methinks.
Geelong game might scare me off the Lions pick. Did like the Lions, who will have their percentage in mind, to rail the disintegrating Dees. But, now with Geelong almost losing.....
Or perhaps Geelong got complacent whereas the Lions will have none of that?
Need a step back and a rethink this round, methinks.
Geelong game might scare me off the Lions pick. Did like the Lions, who will have their percentage in mind, to rail the disintegrating Dees. But, now with Geelong almost losing.....
Or perhaps Geelong got complacent whereas the Lions will have none of that?
Need a step back and a rethink this round, methinks.
I'm very confident on the above 3 picks, wasn't so keen on the 2 I've played this weekend, oh well. The tightest one, me thinks is the swanies game.
The Cats not covering was the same reason the Dees didn't get killed by them. Brisbane won't be so forgiving.
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Geelong game might scare me off the Lions pick. Did like the Lions, who will have their percentage in mind, to rail the disintegrating Dees. But, now with Geelong almost losing.....
Or perhaps Geelong got complacent whereas the Lions will have none of that?
Need a step back and a rethink this round, methinks.
I'm very confident on the above 3 picks, wasn't so keen on the 2 I've played this weekend, oh well. The tightest one, me thinks is the swanies game.
The Cats not covering was the same reason the Dees didn't get killed by them. Brisbane won't be so forgiving.
Carlton has the most inexperienced team in the AFL, they have 300 games less experience than the 15th team. I think the longer the game goes the more the crows experience and bigger bodies will get on top, hopefully anyway. We'll see soon...
Just a little stat about todays Crows game...
Carlton has the most inexperienced team in the AFL, they have 300 games less experience than the 15th team. I think the longer the game goes the more the crows experience and bigger bodies will get on top, hopefully anyway. We'll see soon...
Port/Saints Should probably stay away but think Port comes out very strong in the first quarter at home, like they were against the lions. Wet in Adelaide but I think the saints have as few good wet weather players as Port. At least Port had them around the ball (Roden and the Cornes brothers). Port 1st quarter (2 units @ $1.82)
Port/Saints Should probably stay away but think Port comes out very strong in the first quarter at home, like they were against the lions. Wet in Adelaide but I think the saints have as few good wet weather players as Port. At least Port had them around the ball (Roden and the Cornes brothers). Port 1st quarter (2 units @ $1.82)
Great call on the Crows. As I mentioned last round, I love to punt on them as they are really the sneakiest team with the linesmen....always getting great value. Got burned with them in Round One and last round, however, by a couple of points, so I laid off of them this round.
And what would you know?
They won and covered!
Great call on the Crows. As I mentioned last round, I love to punt on them as they are really the sneakiest team with the linesmen....always getting great value. Got burned with them in Round One and last round, however, by a couple of points, so I laid off of them this round.
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